American League Wild Card Picks for Game One

The long, arduous regular season is over. Now is the time for playoff baseball. The MLB Playoffs start today with four Wild Card series between many of the most popular teams in the sport.

The schedule for MLB Postseason Day 1:

How to Watch the MLB Wild Card Series

• Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 PM ET, ESPN
• Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, 3:08 PM ET, ABC
• Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 6:08 PM ET, ESPN
• Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:08 PM ET, ESPN

These are best-of-three series, with all three games if necessary, being played at the site of the higher seed.

Today I am starting fresh with a new season of baseball betting. For the regular season I finished up $2,220 or +26 units. for the MLB postseason, I wipe the slate clean.

I will select two wagers for each of the four MLB Playoff games today. Check back each day of the postseason for more picks and analysis. Odds today are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs Guardians

FAVORED: Tigers priced at -115; Cleveland -105 to win ALWC. The Guardians are the only higher seed and home team listed as an underdog to win in the wild card round.

This series hinges on the performance of Tarik Skubal and the Detroit bullpen in Game One. The oddsmakers list the Guardians as slight underdogs solely because Skubal is in a Detroit uniform. The soon-to-be two-time Cy Young award winner is a monster on the hill. But he will need to command this game and get deep into it.

Skubal can't simply get 15-18 outs in Game One. The big southpaw doesn't have the luxury of a slam-the-bar-door bullpen. The Tigers' relief corps is in tatters. There's really not one arm in the pen that A.J. Hinch can depend on with confidence.

For that reason: the miserable status of the DET bullpen, I can't in good conscience pick Detroit to win Game One.

Tarik Skubal has dominated the Guardians in 2025. The Cleveland lineup is hitting .165 (16-for-97) with only four extra-base hits against Skubal. The G's have struck out 40 times and walked only five times against the Detroit ace. Which is why I will select a Player Prop bet on the Detroit starting pitcher.

But this will be the third time the Guardians have seen Skubal in 13 days. Will that matter. YES, it will in regards to the outcome of this game. The Guardians know they can work the counts and push Skubal's pitch count high enough that eventually they will get runs across against him. Even if it involves a meltdown like the last time Skubal pitched against them. In that ugly loss, Skubal committed a balk, made a wild piutch, made an error, and allowed Cleveland to escape with a win last week in this same ballpark.

• BET: Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams OVER 17 Strikeouts Combined at +300. Wager $100 to win $300.
  Williams is the "other guy" in this Game One matchup, as all the focus will understandably be on Skubal. But, in three starts against DET, the Cleveland righthander has recorded 29 strikeouts in 17 innings.This is my PICK OF THE DAY ... these two pitchers will be amped up for Game One. Last week, Williams struck out 12 Tigers. The Detroit lineup is terrible at making contact. They are desperately trying to make something happen. Last week the Tigers struck out 19 times in one game. If you are into the K player Prop, consider also OVER 18 Strikeouts at +482
• BET: José Ramírez to Hit a Home Run at +492. Wager $20 to win $98.40. The Cleveland slugger has two HR in his last seven postseason games.
• SERIES PICK: Guardians in three

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Red Sox vs Yankees

FAVORED: Yankees -165 to win AL Wild Card series; Red Sox at +135

Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox (GETTY IMAGES)

This is the sixth time the Yankees and Red Sox have met in the postseason. So far these teams have played 24 games, splitting them. But Boston has won five of the previous postseason series, including the 2021 Wild Card Game and the 2018 AL Division Series.

None of that matters. All that we are concerned with are these two rosters. My assessment is this: Boston has a deeper, better team.

• BET: OVER 9.5 Runs Combined, +249
  In 13 meetings this season, the average runs total has been nine in BOS vs NYY. I'll toss $50 on this game prop, to win $124.50.
• BET: The former Mike Stanton to hit a Home Run (+343).
  Stanton is rounding into good form at the right time. He has three jacks in his last three games. He hit 7 HR in September. I don't even care about matchups: I simply like Stanton to be the power surge for the Yanks in this series.
• SERIES PICK: Red Sox in two games

Padres vs Cubs

FAVORED: Cubs favored at -125 against Padres +105 for best-of-three NL Wild Card series

This is my upset special in the Wild Card round. The Padres have enough stars to defeat the Cubs, even with this series taking place in Wrigley Field.

I like superstars to come up big in short postseason series. The Padres boast Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and yes even Yu Darvish. The reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

• BET: Nick Pivetta (SDP) to Record UNDER 14.5 Outs. Wager $100 to win $124 at +124 odds.
  The San Diego ace looks like a guy running on fumes. He's seen his strikeout rate chug to a slow roll in the last six weeks. He's only been on the hill for 31 outs total in his last two starts. This will be first PS appearance since 2021, and only his second playoff start. He does not engender much confidence from me.
• BET: Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ Hits at +190. Wager $20 on this player prop, with a chance to garner $38.
  Tatis has a 955 OPS against the Cubs in 2025. This series is a chance for the Padres' star to show the baseball world that he's a MVP-level performer.
• SERIES PICK: Padres in three

Reds vs Dodgers

FAVORED: LA Dodgers favored at -245 over Reds (+205 and longest shot to win in Wild Card round)

Our biggest mismatch of the first round. The Dodgers embark on their attempt to repat as World Series champs. The Reds are a decent little team with a better pitching staff than most fans probably realize. The Cincy bullpen can shut down LA bats. But, ultimately there's too much in that Big Blue lineup.

• BET: Cincinnati Reds +1 on Run Line at +113
• BET: Blake Snell UNDER 6.5 K's at +106They can call you an ace, but that doesn't mean it's true. Snell has been uneven since coming back from injury. He has two of the weakest Cy Young seasons in history. I don't trust his arm to be OVER on K's this postseason.
• SERIES PICK: Dodgers in two games