Best NFL Playoff Bets for this Weekend: Bills vs Broncos; Texans vs Patriots

Odds have not been this short on a No. 1 seed in the NFL Playoffs for several years. The Denver Broncos are -1 against the Buffalo Bills for Saturday's game in the Divisional round of the AFC Playoffs.

There's one reason the road weary Bills are nearly even-money against the No. 1 seed, 14-win Broncos: quarterback Josh Allen.

Beyond the moneyline, there are other interesting odds for BUF vs DEN. BetMGM and FanDuel have many excellent markets for the game, which will kickoff at 4:30 PM ET on Saturday.

NFL Playoff Schedule for this Weekend

• Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, Saturday, Jan. 17, 4:30 PM ET on CBS
• San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Saturday, Jan. 17, 8 PM ET on FOX
• Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Sunday, Jan. 18, 3 PM ET on ABC/ESPN
• Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 PM ET on NBC

Bills Game Prop Bets for Saturday's NFL Playoffs

Would you be surprised if Josh Allen scores with both his legs and his arm on Saturday? In wouldn't. Odds from Caesars say Allen is +550 to have both a rushing and passing touchdown against the Broncos.

Allen and the Bills are +1 according to BetMGM. Those odds will shift a little before Saturday's kickoff. But, I'd suspect it will be basically a pick 'em game. The money is coming in on the Bills and Broncos fairly evenly, and that's forcing sportsbooks to keep the odds tight.

My best bet on a game with tight moneyline odds is trends like first half performance. The Bills did not have two straight games this season where they failed to lead at the half.

Buffalo have won 20 straight games when leading at the end of the first quarter. That's the longest streak in the NFL, and the team is also the only to rank in the top 10 in first half scoring in each of the last six seasons. The Bills are good starters.

• BEST BET: Bills to Win First Half (+700)
• GAME SCORE PROP: Both teams to Score 20+ Points (+100 from BetMGM)

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Texans/Pats Sunday Game Betting Picks

Drake Maye has that pesky "e" at the end of his name, and it seems to stand for (e)xtra scrutiny. The young Patriot's QB has been questioned all season, despite rapid growth in the league. But the 23-year old has shown poise.

This season, New England ranked first among NFL teams in first half scoring (16.8 points). The offense benefits from the wisdom of coordinator Josh McDaniels. I like the Pats to score more than 10 points in the first half, after putting up only six in the 1st half last week against the Chargers.

• BEST BET: Total Under 40 Points (-105)
  This game will grind to halt as it goes along. I see points early, but the defenses will stand up to the test and still be impactful in the second half. In a hat-tip to Bill Belichick, the kickers, field position, and defense will decide this game.
• FIRST HALF POINTS: Patriots to Score Over 10.5 Points in First Half +110 from BetMGM sports betting app)
  The Pats scored one full point more in the first half than any other team in the NFL this season. At home, they averaged nearly 19 points in the first half, also the highest in the league.

Divisional Round Game Predictions

Four games are on tap this weekend to pare the field to the four teams on the verge of a Super Bowl. Here are my game picks. My record in week one of the playoffs was 5-1.

49ers 24, Seahawks 19

The Seahawks opened the season with a loss on their home field against the 49ers. Seattle managed only 13 points that afternoon, the same total they scored in a tight victory last month over the 49ers.

The 49ers are being discounted because of all the injuries, but the roster is filled with moxie. This team is determined to prove critics wrong, and a win in the third game against their division rival will be a fitting capper to the SF/SEA trilogy.

Bills 27, Broncos 26

The Broncos have a vaunted defense, but this is the playoffs, where superstars make plays (and history). Josh Allen is on a mission. The road ahead seems clear: no Patrick Mahomes, no Joe Burrow, no Lamar Jackson for the Bills to get past for a Super Bowl appearance. If it's ever going to happen, this may be the year. And it says here, Allen won't waste this opportunity.

Patriots 20, Texans 18

The Texans may be unexciting, but their strategy is sound: suffocate opposing teams with a fast, brutal defense. That means the offense doesn't need to perform miracles. That's music to the ears of CJ Stroud, who isn't going to scare the Patriots defense. This game will be a scrum, won or lost by the feet of the kickers. I like the Pats to barely survive. Paired with a Denver loss, that could mean the AFC title game would be played in Foxborough next weekend.

Rams 31, Bears 27

Ben Johnson's "Cardiac Kids" Bears have been entertaining. The team has nine come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter. You know what happens to teams that have late-game mojo? Eventually the magic runs out. That's this weekend, where Matthew Stafford's right arm and genius play will bounce Chicago from the playoffs.