How to use Mendoza NFL Draft Odds to Your Advantage

It's been many years since we've seen a college player establish himself as such a huge consensus as the number one overall pick as we have this year.

Fernando Mendoza of the Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is expected to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which will take place over three days late in April in Pittsburgh. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy as the outstanding college football player for the 2025 season, and is now being coveted by the Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the No. 1 selection in the upcoming draft.

NFL Draft order for 2026

Here are the first 18 spots in the 2026 National Football League Draft. These are set entering wild card weekend. The other spots will be determined by how the postseason plays out.

1. Las Vegas Raiders: 3-14 record; .538 strength of schedule
2. New York Jets: 3-14, .552
3. Arizona Cardinals: 3-14; .571
4. Tennessee Titans: 3-14, .574
5. New York Giants: 4-13; .524
6. Cleveland Browns: 5-12, .486
7. Washington Commanders: 5-12; .507
8. New Orleans Saints: 6-11; .495
9. Kansas City Chiefs: 6-11; .514
10. Cincinnati Bengals: 6-11; .521
11. Miami Dolphins: 7-10; .488
12. Dallas Cowboys: 7-9-1; .438
13. Los Angeles Rams (from the Falcons): 8-9; .495
14. Baltimore Ravens: 8-9; .507
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9, .529
16. New York Jets (from the Colts): 8-9; .540
17. Detroit Lions: 9-8; .490
18. Minnesota Vikings: 9-8; .514

Raiders need a Quarterback

Shake a tree and a NFL Draft expert will fall out. Usually clutching a bag of pork rinds. I won't pretend to be a draft guru. But I can report that one expert sees the first five picks going like this:

1. Fernando Mendoza, QB to Raiders
2. Dante Moore, QB to NY Jets
3. Francis Mauigoa, OL to Cardinals
4. Rueben Bain Jr., Edge Rusher to Titans
5. Caleb Downs, S to NY Giants

Those projections are from Daniel Flick from Sports Illustrated, and assumes no trades will be made.

Tom Brady, a minority owner of the Raiders, will have much to say about the next QB in Las Vegas, not to mention which head coach will helm that ship. Could he be leaning to Mendoza, an athlete who has many of the same tools a young Brady had when he emerged from Ann Arbor and the Wolverines? The experts say the Raiders will grab Fernando.

NFL Draft Odds from DraftKings

The NFL odds experts at DraftKings are handicapping things this way, as of Jan. 7:

• Fernando Mendoza, Indiana -500
• Dante Moore, Oregon +425
• Rueben Bain Jr., Miami +2200
• Arvell Reese, Ohio State +3500
• Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss +4000
• Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State +8000
• Keldric Faulk, Auburn +9000
• T.J. Parker, Clemson +10000
• Spencer Fano, Utah +10000
• Peter Woods, Clemson

Odds are subject to change. Note that Mendoza is trending toward certainty. Odds for him being selected No. 1 were +400 on New Year's Day.

It's really a two-man race for No. 1 pick of the draft, between the two quarterbacks considered to be elite by the so-called experts.

Why wager on Mendoza? It will cost $500 to win $100 (or $50 to win $10). Because this is a rare chance to grab funds for other betting. Consider this strategy:

• Wager $100 on Mendoza to be picked No. 1, WIN that bet, and use the $20 winnings to...
• Wager $20 on Detroit Lions to win the next Super Bowl (projected odds of +850)

Or pick your favored team to win the Super Bowl in 2027. Odds for the favorites to win the next Super Bowl are typically in the +400 to +500 range immediately following the just-concluded Super Bowl.

By cashing in on a near-certain pick (Mendoza to go No. 1), you capture winnings to use for an NFL  futures bet, which carries longer odds.

I would suspect these NFL teams will be among the best longer-shot best picks for winning Super Bowl LXI, to be played in 2027:

• Houston Texans
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Detroit Lions
• Kansas City Chiefs

Note: much could and will change between now and the NFL Draft and the odds that will be available following the draft.