MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, Sept. 22

Only three games are scheduled for Monday, but that's a perfect number for a Player Props betting slip to start the final week of the Major League Baseball regular season.

The San Diego Padres can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight at home against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Baseball's other two games on Monday do not have postseason implications, but a pair of veteran aces will be on the rubber: Chris Sale for the Atlanta Braves and Justin Verlander for the San Francisco Giants.

After tough results with my NRFI and YRFI picks last week, I cam pivoting to find opportunities for good player prop odds. This time I am dancing with anyone who will say yes: the odds used in this article are from BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel, where noted.

Look for three MLB betting articles this week to wrap up the 2025 MLB season. Currently, I am 11.5 units in the positive column for my baseball picks.

Next week I'll publish my detailed MLB Postseason Betting Guide.

Brewers at Padres: Gavin Sheets to Hit a Dinger

True or false? The Padres have only advanced to the playoffs in successive seasons once.

That's TRUE.

Believe it or not: if the Padres clinch a postseason spot it would mark just the second time in franchise history the team has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. The only other instance was 2005-2006 (when Bruce Bochy was managing the club).

It's almost certain that San Diego will grab a wild card spot. The team holds a 5-game lead for the 5th seed in the National League. It's looking as if the Friars will face the Chicago Cubs in the postseason: a rematch of the 1984 NLCS.

Since August 20 when he smacked a pair of home runs, Gavin Sheets has managed only two more HR, his last coming on September 7. His next HR will be his 20th. Sheets will get to face a hard-throwing righty, Freddy Peralta. He is 1-for-7 lifetime against Peralta, which is so few PA that it's meaningless.

BEST BET: Gavin Sheets to Hit a Home Run at +589 from DraftKings. Your $50 wager would pay out $294.50, which is a nice little chunk for Halloween shopping.

Cardinals at Giants:

The demise of Justin Verlander was greatly exaggerated. The 42-year old doesn't have a foot in the grave yet, people. In fact, since mid-August, he's been the unquestioned best pitcher on the Giants, and one of the most effective in baseball.

In his last five starts, JV has a 0.87 ERA with 28 K's in 31 innings. His walk rate is the only question mark: it's about double what he's shown the last several years. Verlander may still be tinkering with his pitches, but it shows how great a pitcher he is that he can keep runs off the scoreboard when he's still tweaking.

For Verlander, Monday night in San Francisco is a chance to grab his 266th career win as he marches towards Cooperstown. The former MVP and three-time Cy Young award winner has pitched brilliantly for more than a month, and I expect he will continue to be effective against the Cardinals, who are merely drawing a paycheck right now.

Another interesting statistical note: Verlander's K rate is dipping to historically low levels for him. And in half of his last 12 starts, the big righty has had FEWER THAN 5 strikeouts. Tonight he may only get the five-inning workout. He's being selective with his swing-and-miss targeting, settling for his defense to help him. That's why I like the UNDER on strikeouts vs St. Louis tonight. But only for 1/2 unit.

BEST BET: Justin Verlander Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Cardinals on Monday night (+118). Wager $50 to win $59.

Nationals at Braves: Ozzie Albies Power Night

Who to blame for the Braves' embarrassingly mediocre season? You can pile a large portion of B-L-A-M-E on the lap of Ozhaino Jurdy Jiandro Albies, the popular little second baseman from Curacao. At age 28, Ozzie Albies should be in his prime. Instead he's been a disappointment in '25: 88 OPS+ and 2.1 bWAR.

Unlike teammates Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie has been healthy all season. In fact, he hasn't missed a game. But, his little power stroke has been like teeth at a boxing banquet: few and far between. Since September 5, Albies has two extra-base hits.

But that's what I call opportunities. Albies is too good to go nearly three weeks without a home run. But today I want to grab the odds for total bases. Because Ozzie has been hitting the ball sharply, and I see a multi-hit game in store on Monday vs. the Nationals.

BEST BET: Ozzie Albies to Record 3+ Total Bases (+256 from FanDuel Sportsbook). Your winning $100 wager would win $256 of Ozzie gets three total bases or more.