MLB Wild Card Thursday Odds and Picks

Welcome to the crucible of the MLB Postseason. Three winner-take-all Wild Card games are on the docket for Thursday, and the stakes could not be higher.

After two games, nothing has been decided, leaving us with a trio of decisive Game 3s where seasons are made or broken. Let's break down the matchups and find two valuable wagers for each contest.

Win and advance, lose go home. That's what we'll see today as these teams meet:

• Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 3:08 PM ET, ESPN
• San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (1-0), 5:08 PM ET, ABC
• Boston Red Sox (1-0) at New York Yankees, 8:08 PM ET, ESPN

I scored a $100 win in my Dodgers game on Wednesday, but suffered a push and two shutouts in my betting on the Cubs and Tigers games. That means after two days of the MLB postseason, I am up a modest $18. But, hey that's better than being in the red.

Today's picks are based on odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

This series has been exactly what everyone expected: a rock fight. These are two clubs built on pitching and defense that limp into the postseason with lineups full of porous holes. Scoring runs has been a monumental task for both Detroit and Cleveland, with each game feeling like the first team to three runs would win.

Detroit sends veteran Jack Flaherty to the hill against Slade Cecconi. The former seems like he's still hungover from his championship run with his hometown Dodgers last season. The latter is the epitome of "average MLB starting pitcher."

Cecconi has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last nine starts.

He will be on a short, short, and I mean SHORT leash

Who knows what we'll see from Flaherty. He's as predictable as a squirrel on caffeine, and as reliable as Charlie Sheen at a beauty pageant. Who knows what he is capable of?

After splitting the first two, both bullpens have been taxed heavily. Some key setup men and leverage arms have seen action in back-to-back games, meaning managers will be navigating the late innings with their B-squads.

Both teams are running on fumes, and the reward for this grueling series victory is a date with the well-rested Seattle Mariners, a matchup where they will be a significant underdog. This has all the makings of another low-scoring, tense affair where every baserunner is precious. Look for pitching to dominate weary hitters.

• BET: Under 7.5 Total Runs (−110)
  Expect another tight, tense, frustrating game this afternoon. This is probably the only series remaining where both fan bases are disgusted with the futility of their team to score runs.
• GAME PROP FOR MLB WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (−120)
  See above, same 'ol same 'ol.

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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Yu Darvish pitching for the San Diego Padres [GETTY IMAGES]

It's been up and down again for Darvish in the latter phase of his career. Since 2020, in even-numbered years, Darvish has a 2.91 ERA (31-14 record). In odd-numbered years the mojo is bad: a 4.56 ERA and 21-26 record.

But in the postseason, the Habikino Hummingbird has been gritty

Since 2020, in seven postseason starts, Darvish has a 2.58 ERA for the Cubs and Padres. Tonight he tries to vanquish his former team.

One area of concern with Darvish: his habit of allowing home runs in the postseason. He has allowed 18 HR(!) in 71 2.3 postseason innings. That's troubling considering this afternoon's game will be played in tiny Wrigley Field.

Game pick? I will stay away from that. But I lean to San Diego

The Cubs rely on grit, contact, and the chaos created by players like Pete Crow-Armstrong on the basepaths. But grit only gets you so far when facing a roster this loaded. For our final foray into MLB Wild Card betting, we will trust the talent.

• BEST BET: Yu Darvish 5+ Strikeouts (+183)
  A $50 bet will win $91.50 if Darvish gets at least 5 K's against the Cubbies.
• BET: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Hits (+150)
  I like $100 on this player prop bet.
• BONUS CUBS BET: Pete Crow-Armstrong to Record a Stolen Base (+350)
  I'm betting $20 to win $70 on this MLB player prop

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

The Bronx is burning with postseason intensity as this bitter east coast rivalry comes to a boiling point. The entire series shifted on one decision in Game 1. Yankees manager Aaron Boone controversially pulled ace Max Fried with a low pitch count, and the Boston bats immediately pounced on the bullpen to steal the opener on the road.

The Yankees were on the brink of elimination in Game 2, trailing late before a heroic rally snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and forced this decisive Game 3. The momentum has swung back to New York, and the pressure on Boone is immense.

In a winner-take-all game at Yankee Stadium, I suspect the biggest players will show up

All eyes will be on the captain and likely AL MVP, Aaron Judge, who is more than capable of changing the game with one swing. The atmosphere will be electric, and home-field advantage should play a significant role.

• BET: Wager $140 on the Yankees Moneyline to win $100 (−140)
• HR PROP PICK: Wager $20 on Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run to win $56 (+280)