NFL Wild Card Weekend: Road Favorites Odds and Picks

What should we make of the first round of the NFL Playoffs? For only the second time in the Wild Card era, four road teams are listed as favorites.

Should we trust the odds that make four road teams favorites in Wild Card Weekend? Which games are the best for savvy football betting?

Here's the schedule for NFL Wild Card weekend (favorites in bold):

• Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 PM ET on FOX
• Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, Saturday, Jan. 10, 8 PM ET on Amazon Prime
• Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Jan. 11, 1 PM ET on FOX
• San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Jan. 11, 4:30 PM ET on CBS
• Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, Sunday, Jan. 11, 8 PM ET on NBC/Peacock
• Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday, Jan. 12, 9:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN

Best Wild Card Bet: Texans to Cover vs Pittsburgh (-3.5)

The Houston Texans are like Rodney Dangerfield. That's right: no respect. This season, under third-year coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans had the stingiest defense against the run, and the second-best defense as far as points allowed.

Yet, much of the AFC talk entering the NFL Playoffs surrounds Sean Payton's Broncos, Josh Allen of the Bills, and even Mike Vrabel and the upstart Patriots.

For a third consecutive January, Ryans has his team in the wild card round. The previous two times, his team allowed a grand total of 26 points. Opponents have only three touchdowns against the Ryans-led Texans in the opening round of the playoffs.

On Monday night, Ryans has his rascally Texans in Steel City to face the very fortunate Pittsburghers. It may be that Mike Tomlin has saved his job. It may be that Aaron Rodgers will get another season following a steady, albeit unspectacular last half of his age-42 season. But, this Steelers team is not that good.

FanDuel prices the Texans at -3.5 on the road. Much of that is because Pittsburgh's offense has been dreadful of late, and will be leaning heavily on Rodgers' ancient elbow and the shakiness of wideout DK Metcalf.

I would give the 3.5 points and bet the spread on the Texans. Against common opponents this season, the Texans are 5-1, while the Steelers and Tomlin are a mediocre 3-3.

• As a bonus pick, wager $50 on Houston to score a TD on its first drive, at $390. That means a winning bet will pay out $195.

Stafford to light up the Panthers on Saturday

• *Wild Card Player Prop: Matthew Stafford OVER 2.5 TD passes at +168 (from FanDuel Sportsbook)

Hard to believe it, considering his many futile years with the formerly hapless Lions, but Matt Stafford has a 5-5 playoff record, and is seeking his second win on the road in the postseason since he led the Rams to a Super Bowl title four years ago.

The Panthers will have no answer for Stafford and his cadre of receivers, including Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. He may be insufferable, but we'll be seeing Nacua highlights much of January and (possibly) February.

• Wager $100 on Stafford, and if he throws 3+ TDs, you win $168.*

Bolster your chances by finding the best sportsbook promo offers.

Not one, not two...how about three or more road teams to win this weekend

The last time (and only time) as many as four road teams won in the first round of the NFL Playoffs was 2020. The trend is moving toward parity for the opening round.

Since the 14-team format was implemented in 2020, home teams still hold a winning mark (.600), but well below the established level of the wild card era of four games, when it was over 70 percent.

Picks for NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend

I expect four road teams to emerge victorious. That would match the record for a first round of the National Football League playoffs.

Rams 34, Panthers 23

The Rams are on a collision course with the Seahawks in the divisional round. That game could be the unofficial NFL title game. That's how good the teams are. More on that matchup next week in my NFL Playoff betting guide.

• LA Rams win against Panthers

Bears 25, Packers 23

This game is basically a pick' em according to BetMGM and DraftKings sportsbooks as of Tuesday. But, that's because so much money is coming in on the Packers. The oddsmakers don't like the Bears offense, and they like Jordan Love more than Caleb Williams. Which they should. I am not very confident in this pick, and I think this game turns on special teams.

In the two meetings between these "Black and Blue" division rivals, the Packers have scored 44 points and the Bears 43. I give Chicago a small, small edge because the game is in Soldier Field.

• Bears hold of Packers at home

Bills 26, Jaguars 24

Don't count out Josh Allen in the first round. The second round? That's a different story: the mighty Broncos loom.

• The Bills get a second round game after beating Trevor Lawrence and Jags

Eagles 37, 49ers 32

I'd stay away from this game, which sportsbooks have the Eagles as 4-point favorites. The Eagles are limping and banged up. The 49ers are not being taken seriously. It's ripe for an upset. But I don't want my NFL playoff budget spent on this one.

• Don't count out defending champs yet

Chargers 27, Patriots 16

No, I'm not on the Patriots bandwagon. New England played four games against playoff teams this season, and they were 2-2. They were 13-1 against losing teams, 1-2 against winning teams. Don't bother Googling it: the Chargers are a winning team. The Pats unlikely ride ends at home with a whimper in a game that could be a blowout.

• This Harbaugh (Jim) still has his job, and will win against Pats on the road

Texans 25, Steelers 17

Isn't there a high school football team Aaron Rodgers could be coaching next fall?