Caitlin Clark, A'ja Wilson Lead 2026 WNBA MVP Betting Odds After CBA Deal

There will be a 2026 WNBA season after all! Early Wednesday morning, the WNBA and WNBPA agreed to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). That said, the WNBA's Most Valuable Player (MVP) betting odds have been released. In this article, I will discuss the top leaders, sleepers, and long shots.

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

In my previous article, I broke down the 2026 WNBA Finals odds for all 15 teams. With 50 days remaining until the start of the season, let's analyze the betting odds for top MVP candidates.

Four-time MVP winner A'ja Wilson has been crowned the MVP for two consecutive seasons and multiple times since 2022. A three-time WNBA champion, Wilson is favored by oddsmakers to win once again. A staple of the Las Vegas Aces organization, Wilson was favored (+230) behind Clark (+200) to win the MVP at the beginning of the 2025 season.

Similar to 2025, Clark and Wilson headline early MVP favorites, followed by Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, and Alyssa Thomas.

While there's a new CBA agreement in place, there are over 100 free agents, and Wilson is one of them. According to Las Vegas Review-Journal's Callie Fin, Wilson will sign the $1.4 million supermax deal "as soon as possible."

Caitlin Clark, A'ja Wilson Lead WNBA MVP Odds

Conversely, Clark is still on a rookie contract. Selected No. 1 overall by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft, she originally signed a four-year $338,056 rookie deal under the old CBA. Under the new CBA, the minimum salary will increase to $300,000, and the average salary to $600,000. Clark's salary will rise, but not as much as one would think.  To be eligible for the supermax, Clark will have to wait until 2027.

The WNBA MVP has historically belonged to bigs, as Wilson, Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Elena Delle Donne, Sylvia Fowles, and Nneka Ogwumike have dominated the past decade.

Let's take a look at the top 2026 MVP candidates, sleeper picks, and long shots to win the award. Only a few guards have won the award, including Diana Taurasi, Sheryl Swoopes, and Cynthia Cooper. In fact, the last guard to win the award was Taurasi in 2009.

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2026 WNBA MVP Betting Odds (FanDuel)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The Favorites: Caitlin Clark (+260) and A'ja Wilson (+260)

I'm not surprised that Clark and Wilson are the two favorites to win the MVP award. If you were to place a $50 on either, you would win $130, and the payout would be $180. Both players have slightly more value than before the 2025 season.

Let's start with Clark: She's arguably the most popular player in the WNBA, and there's a reason why she's favored. Holding the all-time D1 scoring record (Men's or Women's), she will enter her third season in the WNBA.

Clark is a guard, so I really would have to bank on her having an elite season. With that said, she would have to put up numbers that tower over Wilson, Collier, and Stewart. Clark impressed in her rookie season, recording 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 1.3 steals. In 40 regular-season games, she shot 41.7% from the field and 34.4% from beyond the arc.

Clark is Back to Full Health

We know Clark is an elite shooter, and her passing ability is second-to-none. It was hard to gauge her play last season because she was injured.  Therefore, her numbers were down: through just 13 games, Clark averaged 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Through injury, she shot just 36.7% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.

Regardless of who the Fever sign and trade for, we know Clark is going to get her points. Plus, I can only imagine the pick-and-roll opportunities or even pick-and-pop now that Aliyah Boston has expanded her range. If Indiana re-signs Mitchell, I only expect Clark to explode in her third season.

As I said, I can't base anything on last season due to injury. While Clark has the ability to become the WNBA's top player, she's averaging an underwhelming 32.9% from 3-point range and 40.5% from the field in 53 career games. While last season undoubtedly altered those numbers, those are the stats that stand.

If the Fever load the roster with talent, Clark may not have to put up MVP numbers in her third season. While I don't doubt her capability, I'm not grabbing +260 odds here, especially coming back from injury.

Can A'ja Wilson Defend Her MVP Crown?

There's no doubt that Wilson is the best player in the world, and played a great second half to defeat Collier in the MVP race last season. I'm not convinced Wilson would have won the award if Collier stayed healthy, but her season was historic.

Considered one of the most elite scorers and two-way players in the game, Wilson finished the 2025 campaign with 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.3 blocks. Playing 40 games, Wilson was sidelined with a concussion, but delivered a stellar second half to the season. In 22 games post-All-Star, she averaged 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.2 blocks. In those matchups, she shot 57.6% from beyond the arc and 52.3% from the field.

No matter where Wilson goes, she's the best player on the court. Assuming she re-signs with the Aces, she already has a comfort level with the franchise she's spent eight seasons with.

Why Wilson Could Win Her Fifth WNBA MVP

Not only did Wilson secure her fourth MVP, but she also won her third Defensive Player of the Year Award and Finals MVP. Wilson is a well-seasoned veteran, and everything about her is elite. Now that she's expanded her range, is there anything Wilson CAN'T do? Automatic from the mid-range, there aren't many people who can beat her size and athleticism.

Wilson continues to elevate her game and is the first player ever to score 1,000 points in a season. In addition, she led the WNBA in points per game, along with blocks per game. Named Western Conference player of the week six times, Wilson, for MVP, wasn't really a thought when the Aces were 11-11 in July. After that, Wilson led them to a 30-14 record and a franchise-best 16-game win streak. A crucial part of the team's success, Wilson averaged 26.1 points and 12.0 rebounds during that span.

• While Wilson and Clark are early favorites, it all depends on the team's success, since the MVP is usually on the best team. It all comes down to free agency and which team is willing to build around their stars. Both are likely to average double-doubles next season, if healthy. The difference will come down to each team's success.

Napheesa Collier to Win Her First MVP? (+410)

Collier was well on her way to winning her first MVP award when the injury bug got in the way. Selected by the Minnesota Lynx No. 6 overall in the 2019 WNBA Draft, Collier delivered in 2025. Although limited to 33 games, she averaged a career-best 22.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.5 blocks. Having ranked second behind Wilson in points per game, Collier finished second in MVP voting.

Earning All-Star MVP with a league-record 36 points, Collier's injury, combined with the Aces 16-game win streak, all but confirmed Wilson's MVP title. However, that doesn't diminish the numbers Collier put up last season. An elite scorer, Collier has some of the most pristine footwork in the game.

The Lynx finished with the WNBA's best 34-10 record, and held a 27-6 record with Collier on the floor.

Most impressive, Collier joined Elena Delle Donne as the only two players in WNBA history to record a 50/40/90 season. In 2025, Collier shot 53.1% from the field (career-best), 40.3% from three, and 90.6 (career-high) from the free-throw line.

Collier WNBA MVP Odds: +410

With the new CBA agreed upon, the Lynx have eight players who are unrestricted free agents, and Collier is one of them. I can't imagine Collier leaving Minnesota, given that they've been knocking at the door of a WNBA championship for a few years. Plus, they are one of the most decorated franchises in WNBA history.

If Collier re-signs with the Lynx, her success heavily relies on the team's success/record. That said, they hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft, and there are several unknowns. If Minnesota can keep the core of Collier, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams, and Kayla McBride, I'm fairly confident this team will be a contender once again.

While Collier is a top MVP candidate, it's all contingent on her health. In January, Collier announced she would miss the entire Unrivaled season and be sidelined for 4-6 months due to ankle surgery. It's unclear if and how much time she will miss this upcoming WNBA season.

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Sleeper Picks

Alyssa Thomas (+1200)

Thomas was shipped to the Phoenix Mercury after spending her entire career with the Connecticut Sun. Despite a roster change, Thomas has been included in MVP talks for years. When I say years, I say years.

Despite leading conversations at one point, Thomas finished third in MVP voting last season behind Wilson and Collier. Considered one of the most elite power forwards the women's game has seen, she finished as MVP runner-up to Breanna Stewart in 2023.

Known as a triple-double machine, Thomas is an elite passer who has cemented her legacy as one of the best scorers in transition. She has the ability to impact the box score in more ways than one and is one of the most physical and ferocious defenders in the WNBA. Nickname "the engine," Thomas impacts both ends of the floor at a high level.

Will Thomas Win Her First WNBA MVP?

In her first season with Phoenix, Thomas averaged nearly a triple-double with 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and a career-high 9.2 assists per game. In 39 regular-season games, she put up 1.6 steals and shot 48.9% from the field. Although not an outside threat due to shoulder injuries, Thomas makes up for it in the interior.

Tied with Angel Reese for the most double-doubles last season (23), Thomas led the WNBA in triple-doubles (8) by a landslide.  Not to mention, she led Phoenix to a 27-17 record, which earned a trip to the WNBA Finals.  In addition, Thomas and Clark are the only two players in WNBA history to record 330 assists in a single season.

Thomas has been a winner no matter which team she's on, and I can't imagine she won't re-sign with Phoenix. Thomas deserves more spotlight before she retires, and if she does return, what will the roster look like?

As long as Thomas has shooters and scorers, she can do the rest. In August, Thomas delivered back-to-back 15 and 16 assists, which set a WNBA record. At 33, Thomas has plenty left in the tank. If this is her time, +1200 is a great value futures pick. If you were to place $50 on this, you would win $600.

Paige Bueckers (+2700)

Bueckers had as good a rookie season as anyone could. Selected No. 1 overall by the Dallas Wings in the 2025 Draft, it was a tumultuous season for the Wings. Having dealt with growing pains, new coaching, injuries, and frequent player turnover, Bueckers was the constant bright spot.

Not only did the Wings own the WNBA's worst record (10-34), but they finished 1-9 down the stretch. Named Rookie of the Year, Bueckers' game instantly translated from UConn, and then some.

Tasked with playing the one-guard alongside Arike Ogunbowale, Bueckers averaged 19.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.6 steals in her rookie season. In 36 games, she shot 47.7% from the field, 33.1% from three, and 88.8% from the charity stripe. It wasn't quite a 50/40/90 season, but Bueckers shined through and through.

Why Bueckers Can Win MVP

Setting multiple records during her rookie campaign, Bueckers met and exceeded expectations that come along with being the No. 1 pick. Not only did she set a rookie scoring record with 44 points, but Bueckers became the first player in history to deliver 40 points while shooting 80% from the field.

While the Wings struggled to maintain a constant starting five, Bueckers finished in the top five in scoring and was named Rookie of the Month for three consecutive months. In addition, she became the fastest rookie ever to record 500 points and 100 assists. Joining Clark, Bueckers is just the second rookie in history to have 500 points, 150 assists, 100 rebounds, and 50 steals in a single season.

Bueckers is one of the most dynamic guards in the league and excels in the mid-range. A premier shot creator, Bueckers' career is only getting started. Thriving in USA basketball and Unrivaled, Bueckers is a sleeper pick, only if the Wings attract free agents and revamp the roster.

Unfortunately, Bueckers found herself on the wrong side of history, earning the least amount of wins as a rookie (10). A natural-born competitor, the Wings must be in playoff contention for PB5 to be considered in MVP talks.

Long Shots

Aliyah Boston (+5000)

This is a long shot, but taking Boston to win the MVP award at +5000 odds has great value. With the new CBA, we know two players who are staying put: Boston and Caitlin Clark. Both on rookie deals with the Indiana Fever, this franchise has two of the best locked in and ready to roll.

Selected No. 1 overall by the Fever in the 2023 WNBA Draft, Boston was a crucial piece to the rebuild. Earning Rookie of the Year in 2023, Boston is a three-time WNBA All-Star and was named All-WNBA Second Team and All-Defensive Second Team in 2025.

A double-double machine, we've seen Boston expand her game in Unrivaled and take it to the next level. Not only am I expecting a ton of pick-and-rolls with Clark this season, but I'm expecting Boston to continue to spread the floor and attack with her 3-point game.

Heading into her fourth WNBA season, Boston is emerging as one of the top centers on both sides of the ball. Mainly without Clark, she still managed to put up career-highs in points per game (15 PPG). In addition, she averaged 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, shooting 53.8% from the floor.

Boston has a career average of 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks. With that, I'm expecting her to have a breakout season. While she's on the same team as Clark, it may be a long shot. However, bigs have controlled the MVP race for the past decade.