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Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: betting odds and predictions for UFC St. Louis

Publish Date: 05/09/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • Rodrigo Nascimento is 4-1-0, 1 NC in his UFC career.
  • Derrick Lewis is 18-10 in his UFC career.
  • Rodrigo Nascimento has 6 wins by submission.
  • Derrick Lewis has 22 wins by KO/TKO
  • Rodrigo Nascimento is on a 3-fight winning streak.

The UFC heads back to St. Louis, Missouri for the first time since 2018 for a stacked fight night event event. Headlining the fight card are two heavy-hitting heavyweight contenders Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento. We take a look at this main event fight and give out our prediction and pick for this Lewis-Nascimento matchup.

Derrick Lewis (27-12) has now just one win in his last five fights and he most recently dropped a decision to Jailton Almeida in his last fight in Sao Paulo. In that fight, Almeida the high-level Jiu-Jitsu black belt was able to take Lewis down at will and control him for the vast majority of the fight. However, Lewis did well in his submission defense against a fighter who had submitted numerous fighters before him. That submission defense will bode well against another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Rodrigo Nascimento.

Even though Nascimento is a good grappler in his own right he's far from the athlete that Almeida is. He has had trouble in the past taking down the opposition and while Lewis was taken down numerous times against Almeida, historically Lewis has had impeccable takedown defense as shown in previous fights. It takes a special athlete with high-level offensive grappling to take Lewis down and it remains to be seen that Nascimento can do just that.

Also, Lewis still has the most knockouts in UFC history and will certainly come into play in this matchup if Nascimento does not land the takedown and land it early in this fight. This is a typical Derrick Lewis fight as long as he doesn't get taken down he is live for the knockout and most likely will land the knockout blow at some point in this fight so as long as this fight stays upright it is his fight to lose.

Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1) is riding a three-fight winning streak most recently defeating Don'Tale Mayes in his last fight. With Nascimento on a three-fight winning streak, the UFC is now giving him a massive step up in competition against former title challenger Derrick Lewis for a chance to break into the elite of the heavyweight division.

Nascimento does his best work on the mat as he is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with six of his 11 wins coming by submission. However, Nascimento has just one win in his six-fight UFC coming by way of submission. He will need to hunt for takedowns and utilize his ground work to be victorious in this matchup against the power puncher that is Derrick Lewis.

Even though Nascimento has had some trouble in previous fights landing takedowns, he is going to live and die by them in this fight against Lewis. Nascimento will certainly be the faster fighter on the feet but once he starts to slow down, which he will, that is when Lewis will start to land so those well-timed takedowns are a must against Lewis. If Nascimento can land the takedowns early when they are fresh he the chance to score the biggest win in his professional MMA career.

UFC ST. LOUIS: DERRICK LEWIS VS. RODRIGO NASCIMENTO FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 11

MONEY LINE

  • DERRICK LEWIS: -172
  • RODRIGO NASCIMENTO: +134

PROPS

  • DERRICK LEWIS BY POINTS: +1300
  • DERRICK LEWIS BY SUBMISSION: +3300
  • DERRICK LEWIS BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: -135
  • RODRIGO NASCIMENTO BY POINTS: +1000
  • RODRIGO NASCIMENTO BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +460
  • RODRIGO NASCIMENTO BY SUBMISSION: +370

OVER/UNDER (ROUNDS TOTAL)

  • OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+116)
  • UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-148)

BEST UFC ST. LOUIS ODDS FOR DERRICK LEWIS VS. RODRIGO NASCIMENTO

  • Derrick Lewis is the favorite against Rodrigo Nascimento. Betway currently has the best odds at (-145)
  • Rodrigo Nascimento is the underdog. Best odds are currently (+140)
  • FanDuel currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at 1.5 Rounds (+116) for the over, and (-148) for the under
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FINAL LEWIS-NASCIMENTO PICK & PREDICTION

This is your classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Rodrigo Nascimento will need to get this fight to the mat early and often meanwhile, Lewis will need to keep this fight on his feet if he wants to get back into the win column.

While Nascimento certainly provides a skill set that has given trouble to Lewis in the past his offensive wrestling isn't good enough to land the takedowns and that will be his downfall. In the end, Nascimento will look good early on until Lewis defends the takedown and lands a flush right that puts Nascimento to sleep adding to his knockout streak.

FINAL LEWIS-NASCIMENTO PICK & PREDICTION: DERRICK LEWIS (-172)

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