For the majority of people betting on sports, their wagers are somewhere between a prediction and a guess. This can be great fun, but doesn’t necessarily provide you with the best chance of winning. EV betting can help with that.
But only if you understand positive EV betting and how to utilize positive expected value bets, which is what this page is all about. We’ll tell you everything you need to know to bet on value markets and improve your chances of making a return.
|December 2021||175 Picks||66 Wins||37.70 Win %||428.36 Monthly Net||17380.32 YTD Net|
|January 2022||195 Picks||83 Wins||42.56 Win %||2,716.10 Monthly Net||2716.10 YTD Net|
|February 2022||162 Picks||68 Wins||41.98 Win %||840.35 Monthly Net||3556.46 YTD Net|
|March 2022||153 Picks||69 Wins||45.10% Win %||$2,474.30 Monthly Net||$6,030.76 YTD Net|
|April 2022||211 Picks||74 Wins||35.07% Win %||$534.09 Monthly Net||$6,564.85 YTD Net|
|May 2022||208 Picks||79 Wins||37.98% Win %||$1,104.40 Monthly Net||$7,669.26 YTD Net|
|Picks||Wins||Win %||Monthly Net||YTD Net|
|June 2022||103 Picks||37 Wins||35.92% Win %||$490.02 Monthly Net||$8,159.28 YTD Net|
|July 2022||271 Picks||84 Wins||31.00% Win %||$1,460.14 Monthly Net||$9,619.42 YTD Net|
|August 2022||340 Picks||117 Wins||34.41% Win %||$625.31 Monthly Net||$10,244.73 YTD Net|
|September 2022||221 Picks||97 Wins||43.89% Win %||$2,146.20 Monthly Net||$12,390.93 YTD Net|
|Picks||Wins||Win %||Monthly Net||YTD Net|
|October 2022||253 Picks||96 Wins||37.94% Win %||$714.59 Monthly Net||$13,105.52 YTD Net|
|November 2022||308 Picks||129 Wins||41.88% Win %||$105.63 Monthly Net||$13,211.15 YTD Net|
|December 2022||300 Picks||139 Wins||46.33% Win %||$2,288.82 Monthly Net||$15,499.97 YTD Net|
|See full betting history in the tracker sheet|
Simply put, +ev betting is about putting on bets that have a better chance of winning than is suggested by the implied probability of the bookmakers odds. If that sounds like a mouthful, don’t worry, it’s really simple.
Basically, expected value betting is a way of measuring the gap of probability between what a bettor expects to happen and what the sportsbook thinks will happen. Or, to put it another way, it’s looking for markets where you think the bookmakers have underestimated the odds. By doing this, you can hopefully enjoy more profitable betting picks.
A simple way of understanding how EV measures this probability gap is how much a bettor could expect to win or lose were a bet placed on the same odds and repeated many times. Say, for instance, you got $6 on a $5 bet on a coin flip. If this were repeated hundreds of times, you could likely expect a consistent dollar profit because of the 50% probability. Apply this logic to sports betting, and you get more profitable bets.
The problem with typical sports betting is that knowledge is not enough. You may, for instance, think you have a good idea of who will win a game – but that doesn’t also take into account the quality of the odds. So, you may be right, but still get a bad deal because the bookmaker also has them as heavy favorites.
If the bookmaker keeps offering less than competitive odds on your wagers, it’s hard for anyone to consistently see more returns than losses because sports results are tough to predict. Value betting is, therefore, more powerful than sports knowledge alone, because it’s about playing those odds to your advantage.
So, how do you use +EV betting picks?
To wrap your head around the practicalities of EV sports betting to craft a profitable betting strategy, you must first know how odds and implied probability works.
American odds have positive and negative figures. Positive means that the market is an underdog, and negative odds mean they’re a favorite. The higher the number, the more they’re considered an underdog or favorite. For instance, a -200 pick would be considered more likely to win than a -300 pick, although both would be underdogs.
These are just basic principles. You can actually convert all odds into an exact implied probability, with many betting calculators out there to help you with this. For instance, +100 would be 50%. So, you could say one side of a coin flip has +100 odds. Always remember those odds mean something. Take +200 odds – that has 33.3% implied probability, meaning the bookmaker thinks that the market has a third of a chance of making a return.
This is vital because whether or not you agree with the bookmaker’s expectations is key to EV betting, and implied probability is how you can measure those projections.
So, if EV is a measurement of what a bettor can expect to win or lose when a bet is placed multiple times on the same odds, positive EV bets means you should expect a profit. This works using a simple formula.
It’s your probability of winning x the amount won per bet - the probability of losing x the amount lost per bet.
If this comes out positively, then this is what we call positive EV betting and means your wager should have a better chance of being profitable. You can do value betting manually using the formula above or by using a betting calculator tool. These can vary but typically work like this:
Let’s say, for instance, your wagering amount is $10. The bookmaker has given this market odds of +250, which translates to 28.6% implied probability. You think they actually have a 50% chance of winning. This would provide you with an expected value of $5 – which would, in theory, be a great opportunity for EV betting.
Do keep in mind though, that while EV sports betting is a really useful tool, the sportsbooks are very good at their job, and losing is always a possibility. This is about giving you the best chance of winning bets, not guaranteeing it.
We think of value betting as the last piece of the puzzle towards making smarter – and hopefully more successful – bets. In essence, it’s a strategy that takes the bookmakers on at their own game. In fact, not only can the additional consideration of the gap of probability between yours and the bookmaker's expectations provide better value wagers, but it can also give you a whole new way of thinking about your favorite sports.
First and foremost, the key question our EV betting guide seeks to answer is what that term actually means. We’ll be answering that before moving onto greater details and practicalities. So, don’t worry if you’ve never even heard of this term before. We’ll cover everything you need to know in our guide, including the core concepts behind EV betting.
In order to understand and make the most use of EV betting, you first need to wrap your head around all the things that make it work. That’s why our EV betting guide will be showcasing not just the basics, but also the key concepts surrounding it. This includes the relation of EV betting to implied probability and the role that can play in understanding this strategy.
Our EV betting page isn’t just a conceptual guide, where we explain in theory how things work and leave you to figure out the rest for yourself. It’s a practical guide, meaning we’ll also be providing examples of value betting and information on how you can use it for your wagers. We want everyone to walk away from this page with another tool in their betting belt.
Players must be 21 years of age or older or reach the minimum age for gambling in their respective state and located in jurisdictions where online gambling is legal. Please play responsibly. Bet with your head, not over it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, and wants help, call or visit: (a) the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey at 1-800-Gambler or www.800gambler.org; or (b) Gamblers Anonymous at 855-2-CALL-GA or www.gamblersanonymous.org.
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