MLB Best Bets (May 16): Subway Series Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Targets

It's MLB Rivalry Weekend, with a full slate of series in which teams face their prime interleague nemeses and other regional rivals.

(Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

Rivalry Weekend is somewhat new to baseball, just starting last year. The matchups include 11 series between Interleague rivals and four other regional showdowns. The Cubs play the White Sox, the Dodgers play the Angels and of course, the Yankees play the Mets.

Personally, I prefer these series to be spread out throughout the season but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be a fun weekend of baseball.

With that in mind, here are our MLB best bets, NRFI picks, and home run favorites for the Saturday slate of games on May 16.

Looking for more MLB and sports betting promotions? We have gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: New York Mets at  Odds and Predictions (May 16)

The Subway Series stands as the premier highlight of Rivalry Weekend, and the Yankees (28-17) come in after winning Friday night's game 5-2 thanks to another good outing from Cam Schlittler and a clutch two-out rally in the fourth inning that put them in the drivers seat.

Meanwhile, the Mets (18-26) have gotten off to about as bad a start as a team could have, especially an expensive team that was built to win now just as much as the Yanks were. They've played better recently, but the way April went and their mounting injuries (Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Luis Robert Jr.) put them in a significant hole.

Expect Rodon to struggle again on the road

The Bronx Bombers will trot out Carlos Rodon for Saturday's game. The veteran lefty will get his second start of the season following a tough outing in Milwaukee (3 ER in 4.1 innings).

Rodon's undoubtedly had a good career so far and the last three years in New York have been good, but that game in Milwaukee checks out for how he's played on the road as a Yankee. I couldn't get data for all four years combined, but each year he's struggled mightily when away from Yankee Stadium.

Specifically, he got shelled in the Subway Series last year at Citi Field - allowing 7 runs over 5 innings.

On top of his struggles on the road, his command issues could be a concern against a Mets lineup that has good contact numbers versus lefties (84.6 zone contact percentage, via Baseball Savant) - albeit the results have not come yet. If Rodon can't get ahead early in counts, this injured lineup could make him pay for it.

Meanwhile, the Mets will have an opener in Huascar Brazoban (2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) with veteran David Peterson (5.49 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) set to take the bulk innings after Brazoban.

Peterson has been far from sharp this year. However, his career numbers at Citi Field (3.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and versus the Yanks vaunted lineup (Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) are very encouraging. In 51 total at-bats, Peterson has allowed a .196 average with a .314 slugging percentage.

• My Saturday Best Bet: Mets ML (+105 DraftKings)

I know, who wants to put their hard earned money on the lousy Mets? I completely understand that and have more often faded them myself this year. However, I think at plus-money - there's good value in backing them at home.

A $10 bettor would essentially double their money with a payout of $21.

MLB Best Bets: NRFI, Total Pick Of The Day

• My Pick: Red Sox vs. Braves Under 0.5 1st Inning (-130 via FanDuel), Under 7.5 total (-110 via DraftKings)

No, the Red Sox and Braves are not genuine rivals t most baseball fans heads. While Major League Baseball is marketing them as historic "natural rivals" because both franchises were based in Boston at one point, the designation is just a promotional gimmick to me.

Regardless, the second game of this series should be good and I found a betting angle to back both young starters for a scoreless first inning and the total game under.

After a tough introduction to the bigs last season in limited appearances, Payton Tolle (2.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) has found his footing in the early part of the 2026 season. Yes, he will face the red-hot Braves lineup- which should and does worry me about this bet.

However, if there's ever a time to not trust the start of this lineup it'd be right now with all-star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (.252 AVG, .740 OPS) is on IL. We'll still have to get outs against Drake Baldwin (.908 OPS, 12 HRs) and Ozzie Albies (.283 AVG, 8 HRs), but this will be the first time they see Tolle- which should give Boston's starter an advantage in the first inning.

While he has significantly more MLB service time than Tolle, 26-year-old Bryce Elder (1.81 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) is also showing signs of a breakout season through his first nine starts this year. Regardless of Elders hot start, Boston's anemic offense has been a safe lineup to fade this year - especially against right-handed pitching.

Through the first 44 games of their season, the Red Sox rank dead last in the MLB against righties - putting up a putrid .645 team OPS.

MLB Best Bets: Home Run Picks Of The Day

• My Pick: Seiya Suzuki HR (+470 via FanDuel)

After a slow start to the season, Suzuki has been great in the last month, hitting seven bombs.

He gets a matchup against Davis Martin, who has been great so far this season. However, he is due for some heavy regression and data shows he's been vulnerable against right-handed power hitters.

At +470, I think it's well worth the odds for Suzuki to go yard in a hitters ballpark in hot, humid conditions on the south side.