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Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Picks, Betting Odds for Australian Open Final (Jan 26)

Publish Date: 01/25/2025
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

It's been almost five years since Alexander Zverev last competed in a Grand Slam final, but he won't have to wait any longer for a chance at redemption as he gets set to square off the defending champion and World No. 1 Jannik Sinner in Melbourne on Sunday.

The two have played some memorable matches in recent years, with each of their previous three meetings going the distance, which should make for a very compelling match as we conclude the first Grand Slam of the season.

Let's break down the best way to bet Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open Final on Sunday morning.

JANNIK SINNER AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

It hasn't exactly been the cleanest run to a final which Jannik Sinner has had in the last few seasons, but he's managed to get here and conserve just enough energy along the way with just two matches lasting more than the minimum three sets.

  • Sinner has dropped just one set in his last three matches, but has dealt with a rather slow start in each case with two contentious sets to begin his match with Holger Rune, and a tight first stanza against Alex De Minaur before dropping serve twice in his opening set against Ben Shelton last round.

The slow starts have been something that have hampered Sinner in the past, most notably in last year's Australian Open final when he fell two sets behind Daniil Medvedev only to make it across the finish line thanks to the Russian succumbing to the most minutes any player has ever spent on court at the event.

Still, he's exhibited a dangerous first serve with a deep return which has opened up plenty of possibilities for him, and while his first few matches were closer than anticipated he did seem to let off the gas once taking control.

ALEXANDER ZVEREV AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

We've seen probably the best version of Zverev at this tournament than we've ever witnessed. His first serve has been dominant as usual, but his second serve has really helped him raise his level as he begins to find more pace and consistency.

  • The Zverev forehand, long looked at as his greatest weakness, has also continued to improve after a positive finish to 2024 and adds a whole new element to his game.

While Zverev played rather tentative tennis in the semifinals before winning on a retirement from Novak Djokovic, that's simply nothing new given he's always looked a bit unsure of himself in that matchup. Against Sinner, he's taken the ball early and looked to mount offense, and it led him past the Italian in the fourth round of the US Open a couple of years ago.

Zverev, most importantly, has had his serve challenged in each of his last two matches with Ugo Humbert clocking first serve returns back at him off the baseline and Tommy Paul leaning on his world-class return. That should help him brace for the barrage of quality returns we're sure to get out of Sinner, and in taking out Humbert he also had to find quality returns of his own against a booming serve.

SINNER VS ZVEREV AUSTRALIAN OPEN FINAL PREDICTION

As noted above, these two have fought incredibly hard against one another. Their most recent clash in the Cincinnati final last season went to a deciding tiebreak, as did their meeting at Monte Carlo in 2022. Zverev was able to take two of the first three sets in their aforementioned US Open match before withstanding a rise in level from Sinner in the fourth to take it in five.

Sinner may have looked a bit hampered by injury in that US Open match, which is likely what folks most remember, but after receiving some medical treatment he was right back to himself for the last two sets.

  • What may get overlooked from that match, however, is that Zverev had not even a full season of tennis under his belt after coming back from a gruesome ankle injury.

We saw Zverev's best level yet last year in Cincinnati, against a fully-developed Sinner, and even then both players won the same number of games in a 7-6, 5-7, 7-6 win for Sinner. Now, we're witnessing an even better iteration of Zverev who has been pumping in forehand winners and not falling victim as much on the second serve.

As a result, I expect more of the same here as Zverev challenges the World No. 1 and pushes for a win.

Best Bet for Australian Open Final: Zverev +4.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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