
It's been nearly eight years since Madison Keys last competed in a Grand Slam final, a spell that seemed likely to snap in the 2023 US Open until she was ousted by Aryna Sabalenka in a deciding tiebreaker, and now she'll have the chance to right those wrongs on Saturday morning as she plays Sabalenka for the Australian Open crown.
(Photo by Jason Heidrich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Keys has looked like one of the most dangerous players on tour to begin the season, yet she enters this one as a rather considerable underdog. Can she draw from her form and history with Sabalenka to pull off an upset, or will the Belarusian secure her third straight title in Melbourne?
Let's break down the best way to bet Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys in the Australian Open Women's Final on Saturday morning.
While it hasn't exactly been a breeze, Sabalenka has continued to prove why she's still the best player in the world here in Melbourne. She's dropped just one set at the Championships, which came in the quarterfinals, and she's now won 11 straight matches dating back to the start of the season with just two dropped sets.
The World No. 1 continues to hold at an astronomical rate, but she's certainly looked at least a bit vulnerable when faced with an opponent who can bring pace. These courts in Melbourne are playing much slower than they have in recent memory, too, so it's hard to say Sabalenka should be blindly backed here just because she's won each of the last two Australian Opens.
It's worth noting, too, that Sabalenka's path to the final has been nowhere near as trying as Keys'. Her title in Brisbane, too, was among a rather weak field and included players who she's handled with east. This will be her biggest test yet.
It's been more of the same for Keys at this tournament after taking a packed Adelaide field by storm to win a title just a week before the Australian Open began.
Keys took it to a couple of recent Grand Slam champions in the second week of the tournament, handling the powerful Elena Rybakina and in-form Iga Swiatek to earn her second appearance in a final at this stage.
Keys is breaking at over a 42% clip which, while likely unsustainable given it's 12 points higher than last season, gives you a good indication of where her game is at right now. That's come against a field heavily populated by big servers, too.
Keys may have fallen rather easily to Sabalenka the last time they met, but that match took place not only during Keys' ramp-up from injury but in Beijing, where you'll find some of the quickest hardcourts in the world.
Keys broke the Sabalenka serve a total of six times during their dramatic US Open semifinal, and she was able to conjure up nine break points in both her match against Rybakina and Svitolina, which solidifies where she's at on return.
The Belausian has looked the slightest bit vulnerable on serve, compared to what we're used to anyway, and that should be enough for Keys to pick up some breaks and make her way into this match. With a serve that's almost equaled Sabalenka's in quality, and a long track record of reading her serve, there's a very strong chance that she takes and holds on to a lead here.
Best Bet for Australian Open Women's Final: Keys +1.5 Sets (-110 at FanDuel)
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