Ballislife Bets
Sports Betting Sites / Sports Betting News / Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction: Picks, Betting Odds for Australian Open Women's Final (Jan 25)

Publish Date: 01/24/2025
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

It's been nearly eight years since Madison Keys last competed in a Grand Slam final, a spell that seemed likely to snap in the 2023 US Open until she was ousted by Aryna Sabalenka in a deciding tiebreaker, and now she'll have the chance to right those wrongs on Saturday morning as she plays Sabalenka for the Australian Open crown.

(Photo by Jason Heidrich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Keys has looked like one of the most dangerous players on tour to begin the season, yet she enters this one as a rather considerable underdog. Can she draw from her form and history with Sabalenka to pull off an upset, or will the Belarusian secure her third straight title in Melbourne?

Let's break down the best way to bet Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys in the Australian Open Women's Final on Saturday morning.

ARYNA SABALENKA AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

While it hasn't exactly been a breeze, Sabalenka has continued to prove why she's still the best player in the world here in Melbourne. She's dropped just one set at the Championships, which came in the quarterfinals, and she's now won 11 straight matches dating back to the start of the season with just two dropped sets.

  • Sabalenka was able to come through what appeared to be a difficult matchup with Paula Badosa in the semifinals with relative ease, but she was noticeably thrown off her game by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters and the impressive serve of Clara Tauson a couple of matches prior to that.

The World No. 1 continues to hold at an astronomical rate, but she's certainly looked at least a bit vulnerable when faced with an opponent who can bring pace. These courts in Melbourne are playing much slower than they have in recent memory, too, so it's hard to say Sabalenka should be blindly backed here just because she's won each of the last two Australian Opens.

It's worth noting, too, that Sabalenka's path to the final has been nowhere near as trying as Keys'. Her title in Brisbane, too, was among a rather weak field and included players who she's handled with east. This will be her biggest test yet.

MADISON KEYS AT THE 2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

It's been more of the same for Keys at this tournament after taking a packed Adelaide field by storm to win a title just a week before the Australian Open began.

  • Her list of victims that week was very impressive, including some world-class talents like Jessica Pegula, Liudmila Samsonova and Daria Kasatkina, and her road to the Australian Open final was somehow even tougher.

Keys took it to a couple of recent Grand Slam champions in the second week of the tournament, handling the powerful Elena Rybakina and in-form Iga Swiatek to earn her second appearance in a final at this stage.

  • The American has continued to boast one of the best serves on tour this season, but the key to her to rise in level has been on return where she's ranked eighth in points won per game.

Keys is breaking at over a 42% clip which, while likely unsustainable given it's 12 points higher than last season, gives you a good indication of where her game is at right now. That's come against a field heavily populated by big servers, too.

SABALENKA VS KEYS AUSTRALIAN OPEN FINAL PREDICTION

Keys may have fallen rather easily to Sabalenka the last time they met, but that match took place not only during Keys' ramp-up from injury but in Beijing, where you'll find some of the quickest hardcourts in the world.

  • These conditions are nothing like those conditions, and that should give you all the confidence you need that the 29-year-old can make this happen on Saturday morning.

Keys broke the Sabalenka serve a total of six times during their dramatic US Open semifinal, and she was able to conjure up nine break points in both her match against Rybakina and Svitolina, which solidifies where she's at on return.

The Belausian has looked the slightest bit vulnerable on serve, compared to what we're used to anyway, and that should be enough for Keys to pick up some breaks and make her way into this match. With a serve that's almost equaled Sabalenka's in quality, and a long track record of reading her serve, there's a very strong chance that she takes and holds on to a lead here.

Best Bet for Australian Open Women's Final: Keys +1.5 Sets (-110 at FanDuel)

Read Also
Women's Australian Open Futures for 2025: Updated Australian Open Odds, Lines for Top Players
The 2025 Australian Open begins this weekend from Melbourne Park, and the ...
US Open Women's Final Prediction: Pegula vs Sabalenka Betting Odds and Picks Today Sep 7
We'll crown a brand new US Open champion one way or another ...
BetMGM Promo
WNBA All-Star: 3-Point Contest Odds and Predictions for Friday, July 19
WNBA All-Star Weekend is officially underway, and there's a highly anticipated 3-point ...
French Open Women's Final Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini Betting Odds, Picks
The women's final of the 2024 French Open will take place on ...
WNBA Daily: Top player props, odds, and betting predictions for Thursday, May 16
It's official! The WNBA season has arrived, and there is a prime ...
Our Team
Sara Jane Gamelli
Sara Jane Gamelli
Writer | Bettor
Sadonna Price
Sadonna Price
Editor | Writer
John Carlo A. Villaruel
John Carlo A. Villaruel
Sports Writer
Kenny Ducey
Kenny Ducey
Sports Reporter | Capper
Ronnie Flores
Ronnie Flores
Editor | Senior Writer
David Astramskas (Redapples)
David Astramskas (Redapples)
Editor | Senior Writer
Joseph Scalise
Joseph Scalise
Editor | Writer
Latest News
Best DraftKings Pick6 Entries & Picks For Today February 7
Friday in Brooklyn, the Miami Heat will start ...
2025 NBA Trade Deadline: 3 Winners & Losers
The NBA trade deadline has passed and teams ...
Anthony Davis Injury Shows Why Lakers Still Need Help Down Low
The Lakers went into their latest game against ...
NBA Player Props Today: SJ's Best NBA Prop Bets and Odds February 5
It's Wednesday, and there are 11 games on ...
Clippers Recent Win Shows the Power of a Healthy Kawhi Leonard
Clippers fans can rejoice, it seems all of ...
What the Luka-AD Trade Signifies 
We recently talked about the most impactful trade ...

21+ and present in VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This site is using Cloudflare and adheres to the Google Safe Browsing Program. We adapted Google's Privacy Guidelines to keep your data safe at all times.
Virginia Town HallCloudflareSSL
Close
Unlock Your Winning Potential! Exclusive Offers from Top Sportsbooks Await.
BetMGM
BetMGM Bonus
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
T&Cs apply, 21+
Promo Code:
Go to BetMGM
Get Bonus
Bet365
Bet365 Bonus
Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose when you bet $5!
T&Cs apply, 21+
Subject to meeting qualifying criteria. Minimum wager $5. Minimum odds -500 or greater. $10 minimum deposit. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. Available in app only. Max. prize, game restrictions, time limits and T&Cs apply. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
Promo Code:
Go to Bet365
Go to Bet365
FanDuel
FanDuel Bonus
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins!
T&Cs apply, 21+
Promo Code:
Go to FanDuel
Get Bonus
×
Your Promo Code:
The bonus offer of was already opened in an additional window. If not, you can open it also by clicking the following link:
Play now