2025 NBA Cup Winner Odds and Predictions: Thunder Lead In-Season Tournament Betting Lines

The third annual 2025 Emirates NBA Cup is set to begin on Friday, Oct. 31, and will conclude on Dec. 16 with a championship game.

(Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

Established during the 2023-2024 season, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers to become the first-ever NBA Cup champions! With LeBron James winning the inaugural In-Season Tournament MVP, it was Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks who were crowned NBA Cup champs in 2024-2025.

Defeating Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder 97-81 in the championship game last year, Oklahoma City is the early favorite to win it all this season (+200). Reigning NBA Champions, the Thunder lead the Cleveland Cavaliers (+650) and Denver Nuggets (+700), emerging as the favorites to be crowned winners. Other teams listed high in the NBA Cup championship odds winners are the New York Knicks (+1100) and the Golden State Warriors (+1500).

Group play will begin on Oct. 31, followed by quarterfinals on Dec. 9 and Dec. 10. The Semifinals will take place on Dec. 13, while the final championship showdown will be held on Dec. 16 in Las Vegas.

The OKC Thunder Are Favored To Win The 2025 NBA Cup Among Oddsmakers

All 30 NBA teams will be divided into Groups A, B, and C within their respective Eastern and Western Conferences. With five players per group, teams from similar geographic areas will compete to advance. According to the NBA, the team group is random and is based on win-loss records from the 2024-2025 season.

A knockout round will feature six group winners from each conference, and, according to Geoff Maggliochetti of Ballislife, Tiebreakers for the wild card will be settled by point differential. This year will feature four group-play nights, with each team playing two games on the road and two at home. After group play, each round becomes a single-elimination tournament.

Let's take a look at the 2025 NBA Cup groups, betting odds, and my predictions for who will win it all this year! That includes the betting favorites, value picks, and a dark-horse prediction.

2025 Emirates NBA Cup Championship and Future Betting Odds (FanDuel)

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NBA Cup Favorites: OKC Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers

Oklahoma City Thunder

The OKC City Thunder are the clear favorites to win the NBA Cup (+200) and have an implied probability of 33.3%.  The runner-up against the Milwaukee Bucks in last year's cup final, the Thunder made up for it by winning their first NBA Championship in franchise history.

Headlined by former MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are an undefeated 4-0 on the season and have been placed in a fairly painless group. While the season has just begun, the Thunder lead Group A, consisting of the Timberwolves, Suns, Kings, and Jazz.

With two of the four teams holding sub-500 records, I see Minnesota as their only threat. 2-3 on the season, the T-wolves may have lost a heartbreaker to Austin Reaves buzzer beater with the Lakers last night; however, they are headlined by Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo, and Naz Reid.  It's important to note that the Thunder should cruise, given Edwards will miss two weeks with a hamstring injury, which can alter the trajectory of the group.

The Thunder retained their core of SGA, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Mind you, Williams has failed to see the court this season, and the Thunder have continued to roll short-handed. That's until we've seen guard Ajay Mitchell break out in front of our eyes.

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +200

Once again, the Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating (103.6) and boast the sixth-best net rating in the league (8.4). So far, the Thunder have victories over the Kings, Mavericks, Hawks, Pacers, and Rockets. Aside from Houston, this 4-0 start is not enough to make me back to champions. While OKC has average bench production, they are vulnerable, ranking No. 21 in offensive rating. However, they very well may be the best of the best in the NBA.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers are fresh off a historic season last season that ended with a heartbreaking loss to the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Odds makers view the Thunder as the top favorites, and the odds drop off dramatically with the Cavaliers (+650) and the Nuggets. Heading into the Cup, the Cavaliers have a 13.3 % implied probability.

With a 3-2 record, the Cavaliers are likely the favorites to win Group A, one that includes the Hawks, Pacers, Raptors, and Wizards. Missing out on the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, the Wizards are in clear rebuild mode, while the Pacers will miss star Tyrese Haliburton for the season with an Achilles injury. Not to mention, the Pacers are currently shorthanded due to injuries to Andrew Nembhard, Benndict Mathruin, Obi Toppin, and T.J. McConnell.

The Hawks are a sneaky option, but what does Trae Young's MRI reveal after avoiding an ACL injury last night? If he avoids injury, Atlanta may be their toughest competition with Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite a talented roster headlined by Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett, the Raptors are off to a 0-4 start, and remain in the basement defensively (No. 29 defensive rating).

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +650

The Cavaliers may be able to make a deep run if Darius Garland can return from a toe injury. While the team remains without Max Strus, it is loaded with talent outside Donovan Mitchell. Even if Garland returns, will he be 100 % healthy? Oddsmakers have the Cavaliers above the Knicks and Nuggets.

With a 3-2 record, the Cavaliers have already beaten the Pistons and the Bucks. Not only is Donovan Mitchell top 10 in scoring (28 PPG), but Cleveland also ranks high in the defensive rankings.

NBA Cup Value Picks: Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers have +2200 odds and a 4.3 % implied probability. This has great value, considering the Clippers are 3-2 on the season.

They sit in Group B of the Western Conference, next to the Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and Dallas Mavericks.

The Pelicans are 0-4 despite Zion Williamson's hot start to the season. Without Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans' offense has been relatively abysmal (104 PPG). With the season just underway, they are one of the least efficient teams on both sides of the ball.

The Lakers have potential, and we've seen Austin Reaves' breakout. However, LA will still be without LeBron James, and it's unclear whether Luka Dončić will return after a week out with an injury. Without Kyrie Irving and Daniel Gafford, the Mavericks are banged up, and this all depends on the health of Anthony Davis. I don't see the Mavericks winning this, especially given the ups and downs of Cooper Flagg's first season.

I love the value here for the Clippers, as long as Kawhi Leonard and James Harden can stay healthy. While Bradley Beal has yet to make his Clippers debut, will he be available for Cup games? I see LA is the group winner here, and although they were blown out by the Jazz on opening night, we've seen them bounce back against the Suns and Trail Blazers.

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +2200

LA has heavy hitters in Harden, Leonard, Zubac, and John Collins. If Beal returns, it would instantly boost the offense. Their biggest competition is the Grizzlies, although they have quite a lengthy injury list.

Harden and Kawhi average over 42 combined points per game, and while the offense hasn't quite lived up to its potential, they are the strongest of the pack in the pool.

Houston Rockets

Similar to the Clippers, the Houston Rockets have +2200 odds to win the NBA Cup and a 4.3% implied probability. 2-2 on the season, don't let that fool you. With the addition of Kevin Durant, this is a team that fell to the reigning champion OKC Thunder by one point in the season opener!

The odds are higher given they are in a tough pool with the Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and San Antonio Spurs. The top-rated offensive team in the NBA, this Rockets team is loaded with talent, including Durant, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., and Amen Thompson. Sure, Fred VanVleet may be out for the season; however, Houston has the length, size, and depth to beat anyone in the Cup tournament.

With that said, it will be tough to defeat Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, and Victor Wembanyama, who's been on an absolute tear this season. This group is arguably the most challenging of them all, and if the Rockets can make it out, I can see them taking the whole Cup.

Since dropping the first two to OKC and Detroit, the Rockets' offense has been firing on all cylinders with an average of 138 points over the last two games.

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +2200

Although group play remains to be seen, the Rockets do have a chance to defeat the others, given that they took the Thunder to double-overtime on opening night.

Overall, the Rockets are one of my favorites to win the 2025 NBA Cup. Adding Durant was the missing piece to the puzzle, and they have one of the strongest, longest, and most versatile lineups with Şengün, Adams, and Capella. With Ime Udoka at the helm as head coach, look for Houston to make a run.

NBA Cup Dark-Horse Pick: Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons

The 3-2 Detroit Pistons are my dark-horse pick to win the 2025 NBA Cup. With +4500 odds, they have an implied 2% chance of winning.

It's a long shot for the Pistons, who sit in a competitive group B in the East. Are the Celtics contenders? It's hard to say now with a Jayson Tatum-less roster. With Jaylen Brown holding down the duties, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet all departed Beantown due to the second apron this offseason. While it's possible, it is highly unlikely.

I don't see the Brooklyn Nets as a threat, since they are in full rebuild mode and are winless so far. The Magic are 1-4, and may surprise; however, they need more offense from Desmond Bane to complement Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.

The Pistons' biggest threat is the Philadelphia 76ers. 4-0 on the season, Tyrese Maxey is having an MVP-caliber season.  Not to mention rookie VJ Edgecombe is a complete stud. Maxey is nearly scoring 40 points per game. Is that sustainable in the long run? With Embiid coming off an injury-riddled season, he already doesn't play back-to-backs. I question his health, as well as Paul George's.  Fully healthy, I do believe they will give the Pistons a run for their money.

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +4500

Backed by Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris, and Amen Thompson, this team has a ton of depth. Although without guards Jaden Ivey (knee) and Marcus Sasser (hip), the Pistons are a top ten team defensively. If we remember, they started 3-0 in Cup games last year before losing to the Bucks.

Detroit has great value here, especially since they get the 76ers and Magic at home. Don't sleep on the Pistons. They weren't from a historical down year to a playoff team in one season.

NBA Cup Winner Pick & Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets

This year, I'm going with the Denver Nuggets to win the 2025 NBA Cup. With +700 odds, they have an implied probability of 12.5%. In fact, they are one of the favorite teams to go all the way this year.

As previously mentioned, the Nuggets sit in a competitive Western Conference group C alongside Golden State, Houston, Portland, and San Antonio.

I love the fact that the Nuggets are healthy and head into the Cup with a 3-1 record. Headlined by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon, this team is stacked. Plus, Aaron Gordon already scored a career-high 50 points this season!

Adding Jonas Valanciunas adds much-needed size, and the Nuggets have a good amount of depth with Cam Johnson, Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown. A top team on both sides of the ball, Denver ranks No. 3 in offensive rating (123.9) and No. 5 in defensive rating (109.5).

Boasting a +15.8 point differential, the Nuggets get the Warriors and San Antonio at home during group play. This will be in their favor since they dropped the 137-131 season opener against Curry and Golden State.

Odds To Win The NBA Cup: +700

The Nuggets are in a loaded group with no clear-cut winner. However, they have chemistry and championship experience with their big 3.  Not to mention, they are a top-perimeter defensive team and put up 128 points per game!

With three straight victories over the T-Wolves and Suns, the Nuggets destroyed the Pelicans last night. I'll bet on that momentum to continue into the cup.