2025 NBA Finals MVP Odds Update: Tyrese Haliburton Closes Gap on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander After Pacers’ Game 1 Stunner

Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers pulled off one of the most improbable Game 1 comebacks in NBA Finals history — and the betting market for NBA Finals MVP has shifted accordingly.

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Haliburton’s game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds left capped a 15-point fourth-quarter comeback and a 12-2 closing run as Indiana stunned the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder, 111-110, on the road. The Pacers’ floor general now enters Game 2 as a much stronger contender for the Finals MVP award.

Heading into the series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a runaway favorite at -550 at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Haliburton priced at +700. Now, after Indiana’s Game 1 victory, the gap has tightened significantly — Gilgeous-Alexander sits at -320, with Haliburton closing to +360.

UPDATED 2025 NBA FINALS MVP ODDS (VIA FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK)

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -320

• Tyrese Haliburton: +360

• Pascal Siakam: +1300

• Jalen Williams: +4800

• Chet Holmgren: +12000

• Myles Turner: +14000

• Andrew Nembhard: +20000

• Aaron Nesmith: +32000

• Isaiah Hartenstein: +50000

• Luguentz Dort: +50000

• Alex Caruso: +50000

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TYRESE HALIBURTON’S MOMENT SHIFTS THE RACE

Indiana’s Game 1 victory was historic. The Pacers became the first team in NBA Finals history to erase a 9+ point deficit in the final three minutes of a game, and Haliburton’s game-winner marked his fourth such shot of the postseason.

For Haliburton, the team’s ability to thrive in adversity is no accident.

“I don't know what you say about it, but I know that this group is a resilient group and we don't give up until it's 0.0 on the clock,” Haliburton said after Game 1. “We’re just a really resilient group. We do a great job of sticking in and settling into the game.”

His leadership, clutch shotmaking, and ability to elevate Indiana in pressure moments have rapidly strengthened his MVP candidacy.

SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER STILL IN FRONT, BUT MARGIN NARROWS

Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite after delivering 38 points in Game 1, continuing a playoff run where he has consistently carried Oklahoma City offensively.

But after seeing a 15-point lead slip away at home, the Thunder now face mounting pressure to respond in Game 2. Another Indiana win could tighten the MVP market even further, as team success will weigh heavily in voters’ minds.

“We had control of the game for the most part of it,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “It is a 48-minute game. They teach you that lesson more than anyone else in the league, the hard way.”

Should the Thunder regain control of the series, Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistent scoring and leadership will keep him in pole position for the award.

PASCAL SIAKAM, JALEN WILLIAMS AMONG TOP DARK HORSES

Pascal Siakam remains a strong dark-horse candidate at +1300 after leading Indiana in scoring and rebounding in Game 1 with 19 points and 10 boards. The 2019 NBA champion provides the Pacers with Finals experience and continues to be a stabilizing force.

“We always know that we have a chance,” Siakam said. “As long as we just keep playing and keep playing.”

Jalen Williams has seen his Finals MVP odds lengthen considerably after Game 1, drifting from +2500 before the series to +4800. Williams scored 17 points in the opener but struggled with efficiency, shooting just 6-of-19 from the floor. With Oklahoma City now trailing 0-1, Williams will need a breakout performance in Game 2 to regain momentum in both the series and the MVP race.

Ahead of the Finals, Williams spoke about the mental approach needed at this stage.

“There’s highs and lows with every series,” he said. “The more that you can stay even throughout it all, the better off you’ll be.”

LONGSHOTS REMAIN ON THE BOARD

Chet Holmgren (+12000) and Myles Turner (+14000) both remain longshots in the market, as Finals MVP typically favors perimeter stars and primary scorers.

Holmgren struggled to finish inside in Game 1, going just 2-of-9 from the floor. Turner, meanwhile, provided timely shooting and rim protection, but would likely need a series-shifting two-way impact to become a serious contender.

Several other role players — including Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Luguentz Dort — round out the board at 20,000 to 50,000 odds.

OUTLOOK HEADING INTO GAME 2

The MVP market is now closely tied to team momentum. If Indiana can steal Game 2 and take a 2-0 series lead back to Indianapolis, Haliburton could emerge as the betting favorite. Conversely, a dominant Thunder response would likely restore Gilgeous-Alexander’s commanding edge.

Either way, the MVP race — like the series itself — has grown far more competitive after one of the most dramatic Game 1 finishes in recent Finals history.