2025 WNBA Finals Best Bets: Las Vegas Aces Favored Over Phoenix Mercury

The 2025 WNBA Finals tip off today (Friday), and there's a highly anticipated showdown between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.

Photo Credit: Shawn Mclurkin | Ballislife

Both teams will battle for a title in the first-ever best-of-seven series format. Before this season, the Finals were the best-of-five games.  WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson and the Aces are back in the Finals after delivering back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023. Appearing in the Finals for the first time since 2021, the Mercury eyes its first title since 2014 under Sandy Brondello.

While the Aces and Mercury were hovering in the background, it was the reigning champion New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx who were favored to win the title early on. Injuries derailed both New York's and Minnesota's seasons, and now the Mercury and Aces are the last teams standing.

Betting odds and lines can change at any moment, making the 2025 WNBA even more exciting. As of September 23, the Lynx held a 74 percent chance to win the championship, while the Aces had a slim 22 percent chance. How the tides have changed since then!

This year's finals matchup features superstars on both sides. The Aces have a three-headed monster in A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray, while the Mercury enter a new era under Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. While the stars headline the matchup, both teams have crucial bench and role players.

2025 WNBA Finals Schedule: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

Game 1 of the WNBA Finals will tip off on Friday, October 3, and will feature the best-of-seven series between the Mercury and Aces.

Las Vegas has home court advantage for the first two games, and the series will shift to Phoenix for Games 3 and 4. If necessary, Games 5, 6, and 7 are scheduled to take place. At Ballislife, we broke down a detailed schedule and betting odds for the series.

Both teams feature MVP finalists A'ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas, and there's plenty of hype surrounding this matchup.

With the Aces favored to win it all, let's take a look at the current betting odds. In this article, you will find my best bet and prediction for which team will win the 2025 WNBA Finals.

FanDuel Sportsbook has priced the market around A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, especially since the Aces have home-court advantage for the first two games.

2025 WNBA FINALS ODDS (FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Las Vegas Aces: -130
• Phoenix Mercury: +110

Favorite: Las Vegas Aces (-130)

The Las Vegas Aces are the favorites heading into Game 1 of the WNBA Finals at -130 odds. This is primarily because they play at home in the first two games. With a 17-5 home record in the regular season, the Aces are 4-1 at home in the playoffs. Priced at -130 odds, the books are slightly favoring the Aces to win, and anticipate a close series. At this value, Las Vegas has a 56% chance of winning the Finals.

Given that the Aces won the regular-season series over the Mercury, 3-1, they finished 1-1 on their home court. Over four games, they held a +21 point differential over the Mercury.

The books largely favor the Aces WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson, who is the favorite to win Finals MVP at -125 odds on FanDuel. A four-time MVP, it's easy to see why the Aces are favored so early on. In the playoffs, Wilson is averaging 26 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game. Considered one of the most dominant players of all time, it's tough to bet against Wilson.

As of September 14, the Aces had the second-best odds to win a championship at +260 odds. They entered the 2025 season as the third favorites (+370) to win behind the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx. Once long shots, the Aces were dragged through the mud to reach the finals this year.

Below .500 at one point in the season, the Aces were all but removed from playoff conversations. Then, Las Vegas finished the regular season on a 16-game winning streak. In fact, their winning streak extended to 17 games, but the Seattle Storm ended that in the first round.

Can A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray Carry The Aces?

Backed by A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young, the Aces are the top offensive team in the playoffs through eight games. Young has been playing some of the best basketball of her career with 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals in the playoffs.

Coming off a gritty 107-98 Game 5 semifinals victory over a shorthanded Indiana Fever squad, there is some concern that the series was extended to five games. While the Fever have worthy players, they were missing Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, and Aari McDonald, among others.

Defeating the Seattle Storm in the first round and the Indiana Fever in the second round, the Aces get their toughest test yet. Up until now, the Aces have been the top offensive team in the playoffs, averaging 87 points per game. With that, they lead the playoffs with a 48.5 field goal percentage, and rank second in 3-point shooting (39.2 %). They lead all teams with a +5.3 point differential.

There's no doubt the Aces' main production has come from Wilson and Young, who are averaging a combined 46.5 points per game in the playoffs. Playoff Chelsea Gray is back, who's been lights out facilitating the ball (7.3 APG). All three will need to produce a hefty amount of offense to stay in this series.

Aces' X-Factors: Jewell Loyd, Dana Evans, NaLyssa Smith

Knowing Becky Hammon, I'm not expecting her to run totally deep into her bench. However, guards Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd will be the ultimate x-factors. Loyd, a league veteran, is a WNBA Champion. Shipped to the Aces in the off-season as part of the Kelsey Plum trade, Loyd was a massive factor on the boards against the Fever.

While Loyd hasn't touched her career average, her hustle plays and 3-point shooting can make all the difference in the world. Dana Evans had played limited minutes over the last two games, but was a crucial x-factor with back-to-back 10 and 14 points in the first three games against the Fever.

The ultimate x-factor could be NaLyssa Smith, who was acquired mid-season via the Dallas Wings to pair with A'ja Wilson in the frontcourt. While not typically known for her defense, she's put up eight blocks in three games! Smith scored 18 and 16 points against the Fever and was pivotal on the boards.

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Underdog: Phoenix Mercury (+110)

The Phoenix Mercury are the underdogs heading into Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. Aforementioned, the books are expecting a close series, and the Mercury has great value at +110. With just over a 47 percent chance to win the series, the Mercury embraces the "underdog" mentality. One might view them as underdogs, given their 12-10 road record. After all, they did overcome a 13-point deficit to take Game 4 over the Lynx.

The Mercury get the Aces on the road in Game 1, where they stole a win in the regular season. Although they hold a 1-3 record against the Aces in the regular season, let me tell you why that's deceiving.

Aside from its 83-61 loss against Phoenix on August 21, the Mercury fell short by exactly three points in both June and August losses against Phoenix. In that sense, I am expecting a close series. Plus, Phoenix hasn't played since September 28, since they polished off the Lynx. With plenty of rest ahead, will that be the difference maker tonight? This may be especially true for a team that loves to push the pace.

It's tough to picture Phoenix as underdogs when they took care of both the Lynx and Liberty. One might argue they've had the most challenging road to the Finals.

The Mercury are fearless, which is what makes them so dangerous. Combine that with their ruthless defense and positionless basketball strategy. Under Nate Tibbetts, this team has adopted a next player up mentality. Injuries? No problem. This team runs deep and has a ton of x-factors aside from their big three.

 Mercury Must Lean on Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper

Speaking of the big three, this season marked a new era under Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. After acquiring/signing both Thomas and Sabally in the offseason, it increased their odds to win, but not enough.

Before the start of the 2025 WNBA season, the Mercury held the fifth-best odds (+1400) to win the WNBA Championship behind the Liberty, Lynx, Aces, and Fever. Some expected that it would take more time for this new roster to gel. Technically, this team has defied the odds. Have they overachieved, or are they really supposed to be here?

Coming in third place for MVP, Thomas had a historic first year in Phoenix. Although Sabally has had her ups and downs, the big three are averaging 51.5 points in the playoffs. While the Mercury have a deep bench with talented role players, this series will heavily rely on these three leading players.

A triple-double machine, Thomas is putting up 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in the playoffs. With 17.9 points per game, it's hard to contain Sabally when she gets hot from beyond the arc. She's now scored 20+ points in three of the last four games against the Lynx. The hero of the 2024 USA Olympic team, Kahleah Copper, scored a crucial 22 and 21 points in Games 1 and 3 against the Lynx.

Although Wilson holds size in the frontcourt, Sabally and Thomas have that height advantage against the Aces guards/forwards. Similar to Wilson, this series must flow through Alyssa Thomas on both ends of the court.

Mercury's X-Factors: DeWanna Bonner, Sami Whitcomb

The big three are the most critical factors, but how about the bench? We are talking about a Mercury team that led the WNBA with 25.5 bench points per game. Much hasn't changed in the playoffs (20 PPG from the bench).

Off the bat, DeWanna Bonner, Sami Whitcomb, and Kathryn Westbeld are the crucial x-factors for the Mercury. Both Bonner and Thomas have appeared in the Finals with Connecticut previously, and shine in the brightest of moments. A spark off the bench, Bonner had a fairly lackluster series against Indiana. That was until she erupted for 13 points off the bench in Game 5. In fact, her two 3-pointers late in the game helped seal the victory.

The Mercury's combination of "rookies" and role players has a ton of experience. That's why I believe Sami Whitcomb is the top x-factor. A true sharpshooter, Whitcomb is averaging 8.0 points per game in the playoffs. Not only does she bring veteran and international experience, but she's also a two-time WNBA Champion.

Although she's shooting barely 28 percent from three in the playoffs, we've seen Whitcomb erupt for a career-high 36 points against the Dallas Wings, in which she hit 7-11 from beyond the arc.

While mainly a non-factor against the Aces this season, she did score 14 points on 4-9 3-point shooting against them on June 29. With attention being thrown at Thomas, Copper, and Sabally, the open looks may just come down to the Mercury's role players.

My Best Bet + Prediction:

I know the Mercury are underdogs and have been overlooked this entire season. If they can stay consistent, I'm taking the trio of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. Not only is Phoenix the top defensive team, but they also have a ton of valuable veteran and championship experience off the bench.

With three WNBA Championships and four Finals appearances, the Mercury will aim to join the Minnesota Lynx, Houston Comets, and Seattle Storm as the only teams in WNBA history to have won four championships.

I love a good underdog story, and the Mercury have thrived off this all season. Not to mention, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas have been knocking at the door of a championship for several years now. After all, Bonner was a member of the 2009 and 2014 Championship teams in Phoenix.

Both are now in Phoenix, yet they have so much talent and depth around them. We've seen Vegas make some lapses in timeouts and fouls. I'm not saying they can't win; however, the Mercury has already defeated top teams, including the Lynx and Liberty.

Phoenix Mercury 2025 WNBA Finals Winner: +110

They may not be able to stop A'ja Wilson, but they have all the tools to compete on both sides of the ball. While the Aces are back in the Finals, they did struggle to beat the Fever.

I'm expecting this to be a gritty, physical series. With that said, defense wins championships. I'm taking the Mercury to win their first title since 2014 and for Thomas to win her first ring.