2025 WNBA Finals Game 1 Best Bets Today: Mercury vs Aces Picks & Predictions (October 3)

The 2025 WNBA Finals have arrived!

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Today marks Game 1 of the Finals featuring the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces. While the Mercury and Aces were two unlikely teams to make the Finals midway through the regular season, the course drastically changed towards the back end of the schedule.

The Mercury surprised the most in the post-Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner era. With a three big three consisting of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper, Phoenix arguably had the most challenging path to the Finals.

First, they defeated the reigning champion New York Liberty 3-1 in the first round. From there, they took down Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx as massive underdogs in the semifinals. Defeating the No. 1 Lynx 3-1, the Mercury took down two times that headlined the 2024 WNBA Finals. If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.

Who Will Win The 2025 WNBA Finals: Mercury or Aces?

Led by A'ja Wilson, the Aces ended the regular season on a 16-game win streak and went on to once again defeat the Seattle Storm (2-1) in the first round. The next round was the most interesting, as the Aces matched up against a Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever. With injuries piled up, the Fever forced a Game 5, but ultimately fell to the Aces in overtime.

The Mercury aim for its fourth championship in WNBA history (2007, 2009, 2014), and will appear in the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021. The Aces have two WNBA Championships (2022, 2023) and are back in the Finals for the third time in four seasons.

This is the first time the Mercury and Aces will meet in the Finals. Currently, Las Vegas enters as the favorite (-130), while Phoenix is the underdog at +110.

Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

2025 WNBA Finals Game 1: Mercury vs Aces FanDuel Betting Odds And Schedule For Friday, October 3

If you're looking to bet on the WNBA Finals, welcome!

Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA Finals between the Mercury and Aces will tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Set to take place at Michelob ULTRA Arena, the Aces have home court advantage for the first two games.

The first best-of-seven series in WNBA history gives both teams seven games to battle for a title.

Let's take a deeper dive into my three best bets for October 3. In this article, you will find a mix of total bets and player prop picks for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces. Keeping my bankroll management at the forefront, I placed all of my bets as separate picks within DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.

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WNBA Finals Best Bets Game 1: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces FanDuel Betting Odds For October 3

MONEYLINE

• PHOENIX MERCURY: +128
• LAS VEGAS ACES: -158

SPREAD

• PHOENIX MERCURY: +3.5 (-114)
• LAS VEGAS ACES: -3.5 (-106)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 159.5 (-108)
• UNDER: 159.5 (-112)

2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

• August 21, 2025: Aces 83, Mercury 61 (Las Vegas -1.5, under 171.5)
• August 15, 2025: Aces 85, Mercury 83 (Las Vegas +1.5, over 167)
• June 29, 2025: Aces 84, Mercury 81 (Las Vegas +6, under 168.5)
• June 15, 2025: Mercury 76, Aces 70 (Phoenix -4.5, under 164)

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

MERCURY

1. None

ACES

1. None

*Odds are courtesy of FanDuel*

WNBA Best Bets For Mercury vs Aces (October 3)

• A'ja Wilson (Aces) OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-155 DraftKings)
• Jackie Young (Aces) OVER 16.5 Points (-135 DraftKings)
• Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces OVER 159.5 Points (-108 FanDuel)

Player Prop Bet #1: A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 8 | PPG: 26 | FG: 47.9% | FT: 74.1% | 3PT: 50% | REB: 9.1 | AST: 3.0 | STL: 2.6 |  BLK: 2.8

•  OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-155 DraftKings)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces star A'ja Wilson to record over 10.5 rebounds in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.

Phoenix ranks second in the postseason in rebounds per game (38 RPG), yet it has allowed the second most rebounds per game (37 RPG) to its opponents throughout the playoffs.

For Wilson, she doesn't have to battle Aliyah Boston in the paint this series. Even when doing so, she averaged 9.4 rebounds in the semifinals against the Fever.

Given Wilson is averaging 9.1 boards in eight playoff games, this player prop bet is fair to me. Although soaring over this line just twice in the postseason, Wilson hasn't dipped below eight rebounds in the last five games.

In the first two rounds, Wilson battled both Boston and Natasha Howard in Indiana and Dominique Malonga, Nneka Ogwumike, and Ezi Magbegor in Seattle. Phoenix is a much different team, one that possesses size with Natasha Mack and Satou Sabally. With that said, Wilson has been monstrous against the Mercury.

A'ja Wilson Is Favored To Win Finals MVP (-125)

In three regular-season matchups, Wilson recorded 13, 16, and 18 rebounds for an average of 15.6 RPG against the Mercury. With or without the acquisition of NaLyssa Smith, Wilson has completely dominated on the boards against Phoenix.

Chalk it up to the Mercury's positionless basketball, although they have a ton of players who grab boards, including Alyssa Thomas. While this is a tough matchup, scoring-wise, for the former South Carolina Gamecock, she now faces a Mercury team that allows the most rebounds to opposing centers. If the Aces want to win this one, rebounds will be key, given the Mercury often beat teams with their relentless defense.

While no player on the Minnesota Lynx tallied 11+ rebounds, Jonquel Jones recorded 13 and 12 rebounds in the first round.

Overall, we have to take minutes into account here. A'ja Wilson is averaging 35.4 minutes in the playoffs for head coach Becky Hammon. In fact, she's had some of her best performances on the glass this season when playing such minutes.

Final WNBA Finals Game 1 Mercury vs Aces best bet and prediction: A'ja Wilson OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-155 DraftKings)

When logging 35+ minutes in the regular season, Wilson averaged 11.6 rebounds in the 13 games where she played that much. On June 29, she torched the Mercury for 18 rebounds in 35 minutes.

While this is a great matchup, the Mercury don't have a single player who can stop A'ja Wilson. Sure, they have Satou Sabally and Natasha Mack in the frontcourt; however, I believe the lack of interior presence will give Wilson the advantage on rebounds and in the paint—especially when Mack isn't on the floor. Players such as DeWanna Bonner and Kathryn Westbeld possess size, but they primarily serve as floor spacers for the Phoenix team.

• I'm taking A'ja Wilson to record over 10.5 rebounds today. It starts and ends with her, and is a significant reason why the Aces outrebounded them this season. 

Player Prop Bet #2: Jackie Young

Jackie Young 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 8 | PPG: 20.5 | FG: 54.1% | FT: 93.8% | 3PT: 38.1 % | REB: 4.8| AST: 5.3 | STL: 1.4 |  BLK: 0

• OVER 16.5 Points (-135 DraftKings)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces guard Jackie Young to record over 16.5 points in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.

While A'ja Wilson is the star of the Aces, Jackie Young was arguably the Aces' best player in Game 5 of the semifinals against the Indiana Fever.

Young is playing some of the best basketball of her career and remains a crucial reason why the Aces have advanced this far. Through eight playoff games, she's averaging 20.5 points and is shooting 54.1 percent from the field.

A two-way 3-level scorer, Young is the peanut butter to Wilson's Jelly. Not only has she been an extremely durable player for Becky Hammon (35 MPG), but she's also been extremely physical and strong. With a six-foot frame, Young possessed the strength and muscle to drive downhill against most guards.

Coming off a 32-point, four-rebound, 10-assist performance in Game 5, Young shot 10-20 (50 %) from the field, 4-11 (36.4 %) from three, and a perfect 8-8 (100 %) from the free-throw line. What can't Jackie Young do?

Tonight, the buckets won't come easily.  As elite as the Aces have been on the offensive end, the Mercury rank No.1 in defensive rating (92.2) in the playoffs. Over the regular season, the Mercury allowed the third-most points to guards. At the beginning of the playoffs, it was a different story.

Jackie Young Is The Aces' Ultimate X-Factor

While the Mercury held every Liberty guard to under 17 points in the first round, it was the Minnesota Lynx guards who challenged them the most in the semifinals. For Minnesota, Courtney Williams recorded 20 and 23 points, while Kayla McBride exploded for 21 points in Game 2.

What makes this Mercury team so lethal is its ability to play positionless basketball with stellar defense. With that said, I'm expecting a ton of switching from them in the series. Alyssa Thomas is truly a point forward; however, will the Aces go small tonight or still with their lineup? Rookie Monique Akoa Makani has blossomed into a defensive threat.

If we look at the stats, Young scored 17 points once in four games in the regular season against Phoenix. Averaging 14.8 points per game, this prop line isn't far off.

Young has found her groove, and the Finals are where top players shine the most. She's been in this moment before, and is shooting well over 55 percent from the field over the last five games. A flamethrower from beyond the arc, Young is one of the best at getting to the charity stripe.

Final WNBA Finals Game 1 Mercury vs Aces best bet and prediction: Jackie Young OVER 16.5 Points (-135 DraftKings)

I expect all the attention to be focused on A'ja Wilson throughout the series. With that said, Young has soared over this player prop line in three straight games, and I do believe she is the ultimate x-factor.

Sure, the Aces have other options with Chelsea Gray, and even Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd off the bench. It was, in fact, A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young who combined for 67 points to propel the Aces over the Fever last round.

• I'm taking Jackie Young to record over 16.5 points today. She's become the Aces' most consistent player next to A'ja Wilson, and thrives in the biggest of moments. 

Total Bet: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

• Mercury vs Aces OVER 159.5 points (-108 FanDuel)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces to total over 159.5 total points.

Heading into the series, the Aces rank No. 1 in offensive rating (108.9), and the Mercury are No. 1 in defensive rating (92.2) in the playoffs. For Phoenix, it's the defense that's kept the team in games all season long.

Meanwhile, the Aces are fifth in defensive rating, and this is a spot where the Mercury can keep up offensively. Over the last three games, Phoenix has scored 84+ points per game, averaging 82 points per game in the series against the Lynx. With Copper, Sabally, and Thomas, the Mercury have the offensive firepower to keep up. It's the bench and role players that will make the difference.

Why Game 1 Of The WNBA Finals Can Soar Over Points

Although the matchup went into overtime, the Aces are coming off a 107 Game 5 performance, in which A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young combined for 67 points against the Indiana Fever. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was overtime given that both the Mercury and Aces forced three overtime games in the playoffs.

With the over soaring in two of their four regular-season matchups, this will be a long series. In a best-of-seven series, I veered away from the spread this game. In two of the last three matchups against Phoenix, both teams tallied 81+ points.

While the Mercury's offense was rather unstable during the regular season, it has become fairly consistent, especially against a top defensive team in the Lynx. Coming off plenty of rest, this is a team that loves to push the pace (ranks third). In this case, I'm expecting a good amount of scoring tonight.

Final WNBA Finals Game 1 Mercury vs Aces best bet and prediction: OVER 159.5 Points (-108 FanDuel)

I am expecting this to be a close matchup, and the Aces hold a 12-10 over/under record at home. I expect this line to increase to 160 points or more, and the Mercury have covered the 159.5 prop line in three straight games. For the Aces, this has hit in two straight outings.

• I'm taking the over for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals tonight. Both teams have faced challenges to reach this point. While the Aces have the experience, Alyssa Thomas and the Phoenix Mercury have been fearless all season long. X-factors such as DeWanna Bonner, Kathryn Westbeld, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd will be crucial in determining the point total and outcome of each game.