2026-27 NFL Betting Odds: AFC South Best Bets & Predictions

The AFC South hasn’t been much of a factor in the postseason since its formation in 2002, with the division winner going on to play in the Super Bowl just twice. But the division itself has been pretty competitive in recent years and should be a dogfight once again. Of course, when that is the case, it can be a bit challenging to decide who to bet on to win the division.

That’s where I come in. But before I share my favorite/dark horse/longshot picks to win, let’s go over the odds to win the AFC South.

(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

If you're looking ahead to the upcoming NFL season, be sure to check out this list of the best sports betting offers gathered by Ballislife Bets.

AFC South Division Odds for 2026-27

Here are the odds to win the AFC South Division as of Week Two of the preseason (odds via DraftKings):

• Houston Texans +110
• Jacksonville Jaguars +245
• Indianapolis Colts +380
• Tennessee Titans +800

At +110, the Texans have a 47.62% chance of repeating as division champs, followed by the Jaguars at 28.99%, Colts at 20.83%, and finally the Titans at 11.11%.

It’s a little surprising to see the Jaguars, who won the division last season with a 13-4 record, take a backseat to the Houston Texans (who were 12-5). The two split the season series last year with the Jags winning 17-10 in Week 3 at home and the Texans winning 36-29 in Houston (Week 10). Both teams lost in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, may not be getting the respect it deserves. Before Daniel Jones started having injury issues, the Colts were looking like AFC and even Super Bowl contenders. They certainly looked like a shoo-in to win the division. Prior to Week 9, when they were 7-1, they had an 80% chance of winning the AFC South (-400). Had he not been hobbled by injuries in his last few games and eventually ruled out for the remainder of the year …

That’s OK. It just means it will be easy to pick a dark-horse candidate. But first, my favorite…

AFC South Favorite Pick

• Texans +110

With this pick, I am leaning on the old saying that offense wins games and defense wins championships (a division crown qualifies as such). Houston had the best defense in the NFL last season, and it wasn’t even close (kind of close; Denver’s defense was really good). Its defense will be good enough again this season to keep it competitive in nearly every game.

The Texans' defense held teams to a league-best 277.2 yards per game, 183.5 passing yards (sixth-best) and 93.7 rushing yards (fourth-best), and just 17.4 points per game allowed (second to Seattle). It lost some depth in the offseason, but the roster has been reloaded and is ready to go.

Key factors for the Texans

The big question mark for the Texans is the offense. C.J. Stroud has not looked like a former Offensive Rookie of the Year winner. He has been in the league long enough now that it's time to make that star turn and become the superstar he appeared poised to become as a rookie. It hasn’t helped that the offensive line has been one of the worst in football over the last couple of years. Their run game has been anemic, but he still needs to make plays. You can only blame the offensive line for so long.

Houston made a serious effort to upgrade the offensive line in the offseason via free agency and the draft. To improve the run game, it acquired David Montgomery from the Detroit Lions. With him in the backfield, the offense will have a legitimate threat in the run game.

Having the same offensive coordinator in consecutive years should help the offense get off to a better start.

Jacksonville will be a good team as well. But with the losses on the defensive side of the ball and the departure of Travis Etienne in the backfield, I’m not confident the Jaguars will pick up where they left off. Houston, on the other hand, appears poised and ready to do just that.

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AFC South Dark Horse Pick

• Colts +380

Indianapolis would have won the division last season if Daniel Jones had remained healthy. He looked like the latest reclamation-project success until injuries became a problem. If he can pick up where he left off, the Colts could be that team again. But that is a pretty big “if.” A torn Achilles tendon is tough to come back from. There is no telling what his mobility will be like, and his legs were a significant part of his game.

Trading away Michael Pittman Jr. isn’t going to help, but they may not miss him at all after signing Keenan Allen. The offensive line is in good shape and should be one of the better ones in the league once again. With Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, Jones will never be the primary concern defenses will have.

The tools are in place for Jones. But can he come back and be that guy once again? He doesn’t exactly have a track record of success. But the roster is certainly good enough to compete. If he can play as he did prior to the injuries, the rest of the division will have a real challenge on its hands.

Again, that's a big "if."

AFC South Pick: Long Shot

• Titans +800

It has to be the Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville is a solid team with the second-shortest odds, and Indianapolis is my dark-horse pick. So, by process of elimination, the Titans have to be the long shot pick. But is it one worth betting on at +800?

Tennessee was not good on either side of the ball last season. The defense allowed a whopping 28.1 points per game while the offense scored just 16.7 points per game. They were not good at passing the ball (166.1 yards per game) or running it (93.5 yards per game). Having a rookie quarterback doesn’t make it any easier, of course. But the team has new leadership with Robert Saleh in his first year as head coach.

His experience, along with defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, gives hope for the defense. Brian Daboll does the same for the offense. Daboll did solid work with Josh Allen in Buffalo and even made Daniel Jones look good enough to earn a contract extension in New York. Saleh is a solid coach, but I have to admit I’m concerned about the Titans, given how disastrous the Jets were in his first season as head coach.

Should you bet on the Titans?

So — are they worth taking a flier on to win the AFC South? Absolutely not.

Now, there was a lot of roster turnover in the offseason, which is a good thing considering how bad they were on both sides of the ball last season. So, we don’t really know what the Titans will look like on either side of the ball.

They are the definition of a long shot, a team that has been bad in recent years that can come out of seemingly nowhere to become competitive and win games. Tennessee might be competitive. But at +800, I don’t see any value in this wager. Too many things will have to go wrong for every other team in the division with everything going right for the Titans for Tennessee to have a shot.