2026-27 NFL Best Bets: Dak Prescott Passing Props, Odds & Predictions

High expectations come with being America’s Team, and even more so for its quarterback, Dak Prescott. Cowboys fans want to see nothing but the best from their QB, and he has delivered, making betting on Dak Prescott player props an intriguing option. So—what can we expect from the Cowboys signal-caller in 2026?

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

If the pattern holds, fans may not want to get their hopes up too high. But before I explain why, let’s take a look at the Dak Prescott player prop odds as we head into the 2026-27 NFL season.

Dak Prescott Player Prop Odds: Passing Yards and Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-27 NFL Season

The Dallas Cowboys have had one of the more prolific offenses in the NFL in recent years. Consequently, the totals for his passing yards prop and passing touchdowns prop are higher than most:

Dak Prescott, Regular Season Passing Yards (FanDuel)

• Over 4,000.5  (-114, FanDuel)
• Under 4,000.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Dak Prescott, Regular Season Passing Touchdowns (FanDuel)

• Over 27.5 Touchdowns  (-108, FanDuel)
• Under 27.5 Touchdowns (-122, FanDuel)
• Get a head start on betting in the upcoming 2026 NFL season by checking out this list of the best sports betting offers here compiled by Ballislife Bets.

He missed all three benchmarks in his first three seasons in the NFL, but then the Cowboys' passing game blew up in 2019 as he threw for a career-high 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. That was an increase of over 1,000 yards from the 2018 season and eight touchdowns. It was also his first with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator.

The most common excuse made for his high passing totals has been the defense. It was so bad, Dallas was always behind and playing catch-up, which meant relying on the passing game. But that was only true last season (No. 30 in total yards allowed and No. 32 in scoring).

In the other years (2019, '21, and '23), the defense was pretty decent. In 2019, they were No. 9 in yards allowed and No. 11 in scoring. For the 2021 season, it was No. 19 in total yards but No. 7 in scoring. In 2023, it ranked in the top five in total yards and scoring.

Last season was the first of Prescott’s 4,000+ yards passing years in which the team had a top-10 rushing attack (No. 9, 125.6 yards per game). In 2019, ’21, and ’23, they averaged over 100 yards rushing but ranked in the bottom half of the league.

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My Pick for Dak Prescott’s Passing Yards Prop: Over 4,000.5 at -114 (FanDuel)

Several things can contribute to a quarterback's success, but few are absolutes. The obvious, of course, is the offensive line. Dallas has been infamous in the past for having one of the best in the business. That was certainly the case in 2019 (No. 2 according to PFF). However, last season it ranked in the bottom third of the league to start (No. 23), and he still threw for 4,500+ yards.

This season, the offensive line is ranked No. 17 by PFF.

A run game can help take pressure off, since defenses can’t focus on rushing the passer when they're worried about getting gashed on the ground. Hopes are certainly high in that regard with Javonte Williams back. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has long been an advocate of a balanced offensive attack, which is certainly what the Cowboys had last season despite always playing from behind. It helps to have elite pass catchers, and Prescott will have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

All of the pieces are in place for Prescott to have another 4,000+ yard season. He has a decent offensive line, a solid run game, great receivers, and consistency in coaching. But he has to stay healthy. Since his breakout season in 2019, Prescott has been good for 4,000+ passing yards as long as he played at least 16 games, which he has done every other year (odd years).

If you think that pattern will hold, bet the Under. But I’m not going to bet on Prescott getting hurt. I’m betting on him staying healthy and having back-to-back 4,000+ passing yard seasons for the first time in his career.

My Pick for Dak Prescott’s Passing Touchdowns: Over 27.5 at -108 (FanDuel)

When it comes to the number of passing touchdowns, it isn’t just a matter of yards. Of course, the more he throws, the more likely he is to throw a touchdown pass. But it will depend more on what Brian Schottenheimer wants the offense to do. Will he focus on the run game in the red zone? Or will he lean on his superstar quarterback and let him do what he does best?

If history is any indication, he’s going to let Prescott air it out.

When he was with the Jets and Rams early in his career (as the offensive coordinator), he had run-oriented offenses that posted passing touchdown totals in the teens to low 20s. That was the kind of personnel he had on those teams; they were built to run, not pass. But during his time in Seattle (2018-20), with Russell Wilson (in his prime) at quarterback, his offense averaged 35 passing touchdowns a season. As the OC with Dallas, his offense posted 36 passing touchdowns (2023) and 23 (2024; Prescott played in 8 games).

In his first season as head coach, he leaned on his quarterback, and Prescott threw for 30. Even if Schottenheimer decides to go for more of a balance and calls additional run plays, his history shows he’ll rely on his star quarterback to get the job done and score points. Prescott may not throw for 30+ again, but he’ll go over 27.5.

Dak Prescott Passing Yards: Will he Throw for 4,500+?

• To have 4,500+ regular season passing yards at +250 (DraftKings)

In three of the four seasons in which Prescott has thrown for 4,000+ yards, he has gone over 4,500. But he cleared that number by just 52 yards last season and by 16 yards in 2023. In ’21, he missed it by 51 yards but only played in 16 games. So, the biggest roadblock to passing this mark is the number of games, but not just games missed due to injuries.

What if the Cowboys lock up a playoff spot ahead of Week 18 and sit players in the final regular-season game?

Before placing a bet on this market, you need to ask yourself one question: do you have enough faith that the team as a whole is going to be good enough to lock up a playoff spot with games to spare? This is a team that won seven games each of the last two seasons. But since the Giants and Commanders were worse, Dallas will not have the benefit of a last-place schedule.

The Cowboys could be good. If they are, I’m not willing to bet on them being so good that Dak Prescott sits for the regular season finale. He’ll play the entire season if he stays healthy. Assuming he does, he'll go over 4,500 yards with the weapons he has in this offense.