2026-27 NFL Best Bets: Lamar Jackson Player Props, Odds & Predictions

Baltimore Ravens fans can be excused if they're nervous. Last season, their favorite team missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Lamar Jackson, the franchise quarterback, limped off the field and missed more than a month. There's a new head coach on the sidelines.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

That sound coming from Maryland is an EEK. Much uncertainty exists in the first Harbaugh-less season since 2007. But there is a familiar hero to look to: Lamar Jackson, the two-time NFL MVP.

In the Jackson era, the Ravens have won three division titles in seven seasons, but now face a new future with head coach Jesse Minter, as well as new coordinators on offense and defense.

The Ravens open the NFL season against the Colts:

• Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET, Sept. 13

In this NFL betting preview, I analyze the odds for Lamar Jackson's passing and rushing yards.

Get a head start on betting in the upcoming 2026-27 NFL season by checking out this list of the best sports betting offers here compiled by Ballislife Bets.

Lamar Jackson Player Prop Odds: Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-27 NFL Season (DraftKings)

 Passing Yards

• Over 3,249.5 (-110)
• Under 3,249.5 (-110)

Passing Touchdowns

• Over 24.5 touchdowns  (-115)
• Under 24.5 touchdowns (-105)

 Rushing Yards

• Over 599.5  (-110)
• Under 599.5 (-110)

Jackson Over/Under for Rushing Yards is Set at 599.5

Every quarterback has a shelf life. For Lamar Jackson, we're about to find out how long he can be a superstar in the NFL. After missing more than a month with multiple injuries, Jackson is about to face his most challenging task since he became an NFL starter way back in 2018.

There are reasons to believe Jackson will rebound after a bad 2025 season hampered by injuries to his legs and back. He's still just 29 years old, and he's won acclaim for both his passing and rushing ability. He holds the all-time record for rushing yards by a QB. Jackson also has a record four perfect passer rating games.

But there are at least as many reasons to think Jackson is headed into his decline phase. True, he won't be 30 until next January. But Jackson has a lot of mileage on his body: 116 regular-season and 124 career NFL games, more than 1,100 rushing attempts, and lots of hits taken from 250+ pound pass rushers and tacklers.

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Is 800 rushing attempts a bellwether for NFL quarterbacks?

Only five QBs have 800+ rush attempts: Jackson, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Michael Vick, and Josh Allen. Longevity is not a trait you can attribute to most of that group. Newton started 22 games after he reached 800 carries. Vick only started 11 NFL games after he reached 800 rushing attempts. For Wilson, it was slightly different: 58 starts after his 800th rush attempt. But Wilson was not really the same type of rusher as the others on this list: he reached 800+ attempts over the course of a long career where he was expected to be a game manager for the most part, not a dynamic dual threat like the other four.

I think it's far more likely that Jackson regresses after all the punishment his body has withstood in a great NFL career so far. It worries me that his most severe injury last season was his back.

It makes sense that Jackson would be conservative about his rush attempts as he enters the latter stages (or at least the second half) of his NFL career. But he's gone from 80 rushing yards per game (in Year 1 as a starter) to 64 yards (in Year 3) to 51 yards (in Year 5) to 27 yards (Year 7) last season.

If Jackson wants to play into his mid or late 30s like Wilson, he'll transition into a pocket passer. If he keeps playing like Vick and Newton, his body will not hold up. Football Father Time waits for no one.

• BEST BET: Lamar Jackson Under 599.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)

Passing O/U: 3,249.5 Passing Yards

If Jackson is too banged up to ever be an impact rusher again, what does that mean for his passing game? It makes sense that if the Ravens under new OC Declan Doyle de-emphasize the bootleg play, Jackson's pass attempts will inch up.

Across his career, Jackson's passing attempts have remained steady:

• 2019-2021: 27.6 pass attempts per game
• 2022-2025: 26.9 pass attempts per game

What's remained steady has been the Ravens' run attack: in 2025 they ranked third in the NFL in rush attempts; second in 2024; and first in 2023.

Doyle has not had enough time as an OC to establish set trends. Under Minter, I'd expect that the offense will be asked to put together long, steady drives that rely on RB Derrick Henry. That means Jackson will be in set offensive schemes to maximize his famous efficiency.

Ultimately, injury is the key factor for Jackson's passing yards total in 2026. Do we believe this almost-30-year-old with 800+ rushing attempts on his legs will stay healthy for 17 starts?

• BEST BET: Lamar Jackson Under 3,249.5 Passing Yards (via DraftKings)