2026-27 NFL Best Bets: Patrick Mahomes Passing Props, Odds & Predictions

As one of the league's best quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns week in and week out. This expectation, of course, makes Patrick Mahomes’ player props intriguing to bettors. But he is coming off a serious knee injury. Consequently, it would not be shocking if his mobility suffered and his overall numbers took a step back. At the same time, he could also be the same brilliant quarterback fans know and love.

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Let’s take a look at the odds for the Patrick Mahomes player props at DraftKings and talk about how his 2026-27 NFL season may play out. Will Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back this year?

Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Odds: Passing Yards and Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-27 NFL Season (DraftKings)

The Chiefs offense has been one of the most exciting units in the NFL in recent years. But Mahomes' production has gone down in recent years, which could be why his passing yards and touchdown totals are set as low as they are:

Patrick Mahomes, Regular Season Passing Yards

• Over 3,649.5 at -110
• Under 3,649.5 at -110

Patrick Mahomes, Regular Season Passing Touchdowns

• Over 25.5 at -105
• Under 25.5 at -115

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To be fair, most players would probably love to just come close to those numbers and would not consider them “low.” But Mahomes routinely throws for nearly 4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns a season. So, for him, you could make a solid case that these numbers are low.

Does that mean we should just go ahead and take the OVER for both markets? Absolutely not, but let's talk about that...

Mahomes has shown an incredible ability to bounce back from injuries. But he isn’t getting any younger, and eventually the wear and tear catches up with everybody. Could that happen to him this season? Is it possible the knee injury slows him down a step and he plays more like a mortal quarterback than the guy fans know and love?

We can’t know until the season gets underway. But aside from the injury, his track record over the last few seasons is potentially more concerning. After setting a career high with 5,250 yards passing in 2022, it’s been straight downhill:

• 2023: 4,183 yards passing and 27 touchdowns (16 games)
• 2024: 3,928 yards passing and 26 touchdowns (16 games)
• 2025: 3,587 yards passing and 22 touchdowns (14 games)

Had he finished the 2025 season, he was on track to throw for well over 4,000 yards (4,356). As for his touchdown total, he was on track for 26 to 27.

It is also worth noting that he had Eric Bieniemy as his offensive coordinator in the early and most productive years of his career. His stats started to decline the following season, in 2023. But Bieniemy is back, which could mean a return to the glory days for Mahomes and the offense.

Or it could mean nothing at all.

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My Pick for Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop: Over 3,649.5 yards (-110)

As fans, we were spoiled by Mahomes and the Chiefs offense in the first few years of his career when he routinely threw for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns more often than not.

Compared to the numbers he posted from 2018-2022, his stats over the last three seasons are lacking. But in 2023, with a little over 4,100 yards, he had the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL. The following year, with 3,900+, he had the seventh-highest total in NFL passing yards. Last season, despite missing three games, he finished with the 12th-highest mark, just below Josh Allen.

But what about his personnel? His career high came in his first season without Tyreek Hill (2022). Since then, tight end Travis Kelce has been his go-to guy (1,338 yards in 2022). But his production has tapered off the last couple of seasons. He still leads the team in receiving yards but hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards since the 2022 season.

Why do I bring that up? Despite not having a marquee receiver like Tyreek Hill (in his prime) over the last few years and with diminishing returns from Travis Kelce, Mahomes has still been one of the more productive quarterbacks in the league.

He has a solid offensive line in front of him (No. 8 in the league according to PFF). With Eric Bieniemy back as the offensive coordinator, there is reason to hope the offense can return to its former glory (or at least a reasonable facsimile).

Once again, he’ll have some solid weapons to work with. The current depth chart has Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thornton. None can compare to Tyreek Hill in his prime, but all three are good wide receivers. Factor in Kenneth Walker III coming out of the backfield, and it is hard not to see this offense flourishing once again.

The only thing that can stop it will be another injury. But if Mahomes plays all 17 games (or at least 15-16), he’ll clear 3,649.5 yards passing with ease.

My Pick for Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns: Over 25.5 at -105

This prop is not as cut-and-dried as his passing yards total. With his offensive line and Eric Bieniemy back as the OC, if he stays healthy and plays 15-17 games, he’ll go over his passing yards total. But it is not as easy to say that about his touchdown mark.

Why not? Because of Kenneth Walker III.

Mahomes has had high passing numbers in the past, in part because the team did not place much focus on the run game. But with the acquisition of Walker, the highest-graded running back by PFF last season, that may not be the case this season.

Not that they’ll become a run-oriented team. But the Chiefs may develop into a more balanced team. With Walker's explosiveness, they may opt to run more inside the red zone/10-yard line rather than try to hit Travis Kelce in the corner or Rashee Rice on a crossing route in the back of the end zone.

The trick to making a pick for this market may be figuring out what Eric Bieniemy is going to do. During his first stint with the Chiefs, the team’s rushing touchdown total ranged from 13-18 with an average of 16. As for passing touchdowns, those numbers ranged from 30-50 with an average of a shade under 40. He ran enough so that teams couldn't disregard the run game, but he made the most of his quarterback's skill set. However, he hasn’t had a running back of Walker’s caliber since the Kareem Hunt days.

I don’t think the run game, with Walker leading the way, will cut into Mahomes’ passing touchdown total. It is not hard to see how it might. But, if anything, having Walker in the lineup will add to it since defenses will have to respect the run game. Any additional focus defenses put on Walker will make it easier for Mahomes to connect with his receivers.