2026-27 NFL Betting Odds: Offensive Player of the Year Favorite, Sleeper & Predictions

With Week 1 of the NFL preseason upon us, we will begin to see the complexion of NFL offenses entering the 2026 campaign. What we should expect to see is versatility. The league may not be abandoning the passing game, but the days when every offense wanted to spread the field and throw 40 times are fading.

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The best attacks have become multiple, physical and matchup-driven.

One of the clearest indicators of this came last season, when NFL offenses used packages with fewer than three wide receivers on 41.7% of plays, the highest rate of the Next Gen Stats era.

Expect that trend to be just as —if not more—relevant in 2026.

Per DraftKings, running back Jahmyr Gibbs is favored to win Offensive Player of the Year, currently listed at +600, followed by fellow back Bijan Robinson (+900).

From there, there are three wide receivers: Ja'Marr Chase (+1000), Puka Nacua (+1200) and Justin Jefferson (+1400), followed by running back Christian McCaffrey (+1400).

If you're looking ahead to the upcoming NFL season, be sure to check out this list of the best sports betting offers compiled by Ballislife Bets.

2026-27 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds (Top 20)

Here is a look at four possibilities for NFL Offensive Player of the Year (odds via FanDuel):

The Favorite

• Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (+650)

Gibbs is an obvious favorite because he combines three things voters love: explosive plays, touchdown production and legitimate 2,000-yard-from-scrimmage potential.

And the scariest part about the fourth-year pro is he's yet to endure a massive workload and has still produced elite numbers. Last season, he rushed for 1,223 yards and 13 touchdowns on a modest 243 carries, averaging 5.0 yards per attempt. He added 77 receptions for 616 yards and five more touchdowns, giving him 1,839 yards from scrimmage and 18 total TDs.

With the Lions expected to return to the playoffs after a disappointing 9-8 season that left them in fourth place in the NFC North, the 5-foot-9, 205-pound workhorse will be relied upon heavily.

Considering he's now the highest-paid running back in the NFL, it's safe to assume Jahmyr Gibbs will increase his volume. And that's without sacrificing his explosiveness. If that happens, the value in his current price could disappear with a few big weeks to start the season.

The three-time Pro Bowler also possesses something few running backs can match: end-zone finishing ability from virtually anywhere on the field. This is a guy who can beat a defense between the tackles, turn the corner on an outside run, catch screens or function as a receiver. One needs only to look at his performance against the New York Giants last season, when he rushed for 219 yards, turned in 45 yards receiving and scored three touchdowns. It's a perfect illustration of what he's capable of in any game.

If you like Gibbs to win the award, now is the time to grab the value.

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The Sleeper

• Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco (+1600)

Let's face it, if the San Francisco 49ers plan on challenging the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams and defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, they'll need a Herculean effort from Christian McCaffrey. As in, an Offensive Player of the Year type season.

McCaffrey has been oft-forgotten about as he's gotten older, and younger backs have stolen the spotlight, but it takes only one or two standout performances early on to remind everyone who won the award in 2023.

And if the 2025 season was any indication of what he's capable of, it showed he's still capable of putting together an award-winning campaign.

The 5-foot-11, 210-pound bruiser finished last season with 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns, a cumulative 2,126 yards from scrimmage - second most in the NFL. He also caught 102 passes and led all NFL running backs in receiving yards.

It's his receiving ability that separates him from most candidates, as he's essentially an elite running back and high-volume receiver occupying the same roster spot, someone who makes life much easier on quarterback Brock Purdy.

When he won the award in 2023, he rushed for 1,459 yards and accumulated more than 2,000 scrimmage yards while scoring 21 total touchdowns.

This is someone who endured injuries that limited him to four games in 2024 before winning Comeback Player of the Year last season. Don't be surprised to see McCaffrey enter the conversation once he's forgotten, again, making him the perfect sleeper candidate.

The Longshot

• Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (+2000)

Henry might be an unconventional pick to win the award at 32 years old, but Derrick Henry will dictate his production every time. Given his denial of Father Time, he won't be slowing down anytime soon. The 2020 Offensive Player of the Year is coming off a respectable campaign that saw him rush for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns on 307 carries, while averaging an exceptional 5.2 yards per carry. And that came after a 1,921-yard season in 2024.

The arithmetic doesn't lie, as the 6-foot-3, 250-pound bulldozer has produced 3,516 rushing yards and 32 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons with a Ravens team that remains perfectly constructed for him.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson's role as a dual-threat quarterback forces stop units to account for him on virtually every option imaginable, making it harder to overload the box to stop Henry specifically. Behind an imposing offensive line that has reportedly been impressive during training camp, a healthy Jackson means Henry will continue getting favorable opportunities, particularly near the goal line.

And let's set aside Henry's 5.2 yards per carry last season, which, by the way, ranked among the NFL's best marks for running backs. When the Ravens were leading, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry, illustrating how devastating he can become when the Ravens control games and defenses know the run is coming.

That 33rd birthday in January might be a concern for some, but as Aaliyah once crooned: "Age Ain't Nothin' But A Number." And considering Henry has played all 17 games in three consecutive seasons, and Baltimore has committed to keeping him through 2027, the five-time Pro Bowl running back is a great longshot candidate this season.

The Prediction

• Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+1800)

The seventh-year pro had the worst season of his career, and it wasn't even his fault. The Vikings' decision to move on from Sam Darnold to JJ McCarthy might go down as one of the most frowned-upon decisions in franchise history. Darnold joined the Seattle Seahawks and won a Super Bowl, while McCarthy threw more interceptions (12) than he did touchdowns (11). Now, with Kyler Murray wearing purple, Jefferson should get back to elite status on the stat sheet.

Though the 6-foot-1, 195-pound wideout still finished with 84 receptions and 1,048 yards, he scored only two touchdowns, easily one of the least productive seasons of his career. But, the Vikings' passing offense fell from 258 yards per game in 2024 to just 189 per game in 2025 - 30th in the NFL.

Murray will immediately breathe life into the heart of a passing game where Jefferson is the aorta. And it's not as if the offseason acquisition needs to return to his Pro Bowl peak for Jefferson to benefit; he simply needs to bolster the offense with consistent accuracy, better pocket management and the ability to create when the original play breaks down.

The 2022 Offensive Player of the Year averages 1,534 yards receiving and eight touchdowns per season. A season around 105 to 115 receptions for roughly 1,600 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns isn't unreasonable provided Murray is QB1 and can stay healthy. It would also mean he'll be in the discussion for this season's top offensive award.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez