2026 FIFA World Cup Best Bets (July 10): Spain vs. Belgium Odds & Prediction

Either Belgium or Spain will join France in the semifinals today after our second FIFA World Cup quarterfinals match. This one will be played in Inglewood, California.

Spain and star Lamine Yamal are trying to become the second team to get through the group stage and knockout stage and into the finals without allowing a goal. The other was the 2010 Spain team, which won the World Cup.

(Photo by Patrick Smith - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

Belgium is the underdog in this match, but is coming off an impressive thrashing of the United States. In that outing, Belgium looked faster, more aggressive, and had a more crisp passing attack than its opponent. But tonight in the quarterfinals, the Belgians will face their first big test in Spain, the No. 3-ranked team in the world.

Match Details

• Spain vs Belgium, 3 p.m. ET

If you're looking for a new sportsbook to add to your World Cup betting rotation, consult our Top Soccer Betting Offers to find the best odds.

World Cup Odds for Friday, July 10

I went 2-for-2 with Best Bets on Thursday. My World Cup Best Bets record is 17-21. I'm up 1 1/2 units overall.

Odds for Moneyline (3-Way):

• Spain: -165
• Belgium: +490
• Tie: +290

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

World Cup Best Bets Today: Spain vs Belgium (July 10)

Both teams have impressive defensive stats in this tournament, but Belgium can be beaten in the net if its opponent gets through the press. Belgium has managed only one clean sheet in the tournament, despite only conceding six goals.

The Belgians have not faced a team ranked higher than 18th in the world in this tournament. Spain will be the first great team they face on this stage, and the task will be tough given La Roja's roster. In four of its matches in this tournament, Spain has not allowed a shot on target in the first 75 minutes.

How does Spain keep the ball in its possession so much? It ranks third in the World Cup in Recovery Rate, often re-gaining possession in a 50/50 battle for the ball. That effort is led by midfielders Pedri and Rodri. For Belgium to have any chance to sneak a win, it will need to defeat those two Spaniards more often than not in scrums for the ball.

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

Key Match Stats (Spain vs. Belgium)

• Spain's 0.85x Goal Efficiency is the lowest of any team in the quarterfinals. But its opponent's Goal Efficiency is only 0.22x.
• Spain ranks third in the World Cup in Recoveries Per Match. A recovery occurs when the defending team achieves re-possession of the ball immediately after losing it.
• Spain's has maintained possession 59% of the time in the World Cup, the highest figure for any team in the tournament.
• Belgium ranks 8th among World Cup teams in Passes Per Defensive Action. That means they like to press their opponent to break through and create scoring chances.
• Belgium has attempted the second-most shots on goal in the World Cup (107, trailing only France).
• Spain has surrendered only five Shots on Target (or one per match) in the tournament.

There's no reason to think Spain's shutout streak won't continue in this quarterfinals match. Especially against Belgium, who has scored nine of its 13 goals against New Zealand and the U.S., two teams that played terribly in their own final third of the pitch. It also won't help that Belgium will be without midfielder Amadou Onana (ACL injury).

Belgium has other indicators that it could be on the bad side of a clean sheet against Spain: despite attempting the second-most shots in the World Cup, it's Goal Conversion Rate is only 12%, which ranks 21st.

• Belgium To Score No First Half Goals  (-240, FanDuel)

There's your Best Bet, now here's a long odds Best Bet:

• Spain To Win To Nil (+200, FanDuel)