2026 FIFA World Cup Best Bets (July 14): France vs Spain Odds & Prediction

This is what we've been building to: finally only four teams are left as we begin the FIFA World Cup semifinals on Tuesday. It's the top-ranked team in the world playing today with a chance to return to the finals after finishing as the runner-up four years ago.

France meets Spain today at 3 p.m. ET in Arlington, Texas in a meeting between teams that know each other very well. In the UEFA Nations League semifinal in 2025, Spain defeated France. The year before, in the Euro 2024 semifinal, Spain was also successful in defeating France.

(Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images)

Thus, France has lost two straight semifinal matches to Spain in major international competitions. Now, these two European powerhouses meet in the World Cup semis. For France it would be a return to where they were in 2022 in this same tournament. For Spain, a win over France would send La Roja to the World Cup finals for the second time. The other time was in 2010, when the Spaniards won it all.

Our odds today are from the good folks at Caesars Sportsbook. Attention soccer fans: check out the Best Soccer Betting Offers.

World Cup Odds for Tuesday, July 14

These odds are for the result after 90 minutes + stoppage time. It does not include extra time/penalty shootouts.

• France: +135
• Spain: +210
• Tie: +210

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

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World Cup Best Bets Today: France vs Spain (July 14)

On paper this match seems like it could be a penalty shootout since both are superb defenders. But, in their last outings, both scored two goals in 90 minutes + extra time.

Between these two nations, France has the better roster. But, scheme is the most crucial factor when you have elite teams facing each other on the pitch. France has not faced a team anywhere near as good as Spain in the World Cup. And the last two times they met, Spain was the victor.

I'm looking at the ability of these teams with the three P's: possess, pass, and patience. We know Spain (60% possession rate, No. 1 in the World Cup) can control the ball. It can also pass effectively (91% Passing Accuracy, tops in the tournament). But between the two teams, Spain takes more chances to get passes beyond the defense (an advantage of +47 in crossing passes over France). That tactic could be the difference in which team gets the winning goal.

Want evidence that this will be a cagey match where one goal might advance a team? France takes pressure off its goalie: Team France has needed only 66 Goalkeeper Actions Inside the Penalty Area (or 11 per game). That's compared to 85 for Spain. On the other side, of course Spain has conceded only one goal.

Key Stats for this match

• Spain is greedy with the ball: its 60% Possession Control Percentage is the best in the World Cup.
• France's Possessions Control Percentage is 53%, which is near the tournament average of 49%.
• Though France has outscored Spain 16-11, the two teams have the same number of Attempts At Goal in the World Cup (110).
• France (2) and Spain (1) have combined to concede three goals. The teams have almost identical totals of Saves: 11 for France and 10 for Spain.
• Spain has an edge in Crosses Per Game in the World Cup: 24.3 as opposed to 16.5 for France. That means Spain is more likely to attempt to break up a tight defense by passing across defenders and create a possible breakaway scoring opportunity.

Best Bet Picks

In France's last two matches, a total of three goals have been scored. As the tournament moves on, the defenses and goalkeeping get better. Of course, the two teams have only conceded three goals combined in this entire tournament.

Your winning bet of $115 will be worth $100 plus your stake if goals stay under 2.5.

• Under 2.5 Total Goals Scored (-115, Caesars)

My second Best Bet wins if Spain advances in any fashion. This match will be hotly-contested, but I like Spain's midfielders because they are more accurate passers, especially on long-range attempts. This could be decided in extra time or in a shootout. But, Spain is not intimidated by France, a team it eliminated at this same stage in the UEFA Nations League just last year.

• Spain To Advance (+115, Caesars)