2026 FIFA World Cup Best Bets (July 4): Morocco vs. Canada, Paraguay vs. France Odds & Prediction

The Round of 16 starts today with two matches to determine the first pair of teams to advance to the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

On each of the next three days, a host nation will be on the pitch: Canada on Saturday, Mexico on Sunday, and the United States on Monday against Belgium.

(Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images)

Odds in this World Cup betting guide are from BetMGM Sportsbook. Consult our Top Soccer Betting Offers to find bonus bets, deposit matches, and more.

World Cup Odds for Saturday, July 4

I was successful on one of my three best bets on Friday, bringing my World Cup record to 13-17.

Odds via BetMGM

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World Cup Best Bets: Canada vs. Morocco

Could we see our Canadian neighbors, a hockey country, advance to the quarterfinals at the World Cup for the first time? It's possible. Their reward would be to (likely) face France. But, that's for another day. First, the Canucks must vanquish Morocco, or Les Lions de l'Atlas.

Morocco is the soon-to-be 5th-ranked team in the world. Just four years ago at the World Cup, Morocco advanced to the semi-final where it lost to France. It would like nothing more than to have a chance to avenge that loss by beating Canada to set up a possible rematch with the French in the quarterfinals next Thursday.

A thing to watch is total goals: in three of the four matches for Morocco's matches, both teams scored in regulation time, as the African team has set a frenetic pace.

The Canadiens are forced to compete without star Ismaël Koné, who suffered a broken leg earlier in the tournament. That loss and a nagging injury to Alphonso Davies leaves Canada undermanned.

Key Match Stats (Canada vs Morocco)

• At 55%, Morocco is in the top 10 in possession rate in the World Cup.
• These teams combined for 50 Shots on Target in their first four matches, the second-highest total among Round of 16 matchups (only the 52 by Spain/Belgium is higher).
• Canada has an xG of 8.33, the fourth-highest of teams still in the World Cup.

I don't want to touch picking a winner in this match. I expect another match decided late involving Canada. But I will submit  a betting ticket on total goals, based on the efficiency of their scoring and the high number of Attempts on Target from both squads.

Both of these teams have scored at least one goal in all four of their games. Canada is averaging 8.2 Attempts on Target per game, and we should see enough activity in set plays off corners to get the goals needed to win this match prop. A winning $100 wager will be worth $220, including the stake.

• Over 2.5 Goals (+120 BetMGM)

World Cup Best Bets: Paraguay vs. France

France is the popular pick to win the World Cup, listed at +188, according to BetMGM sports betting app. A win Saturday would advance Les Bleus to the quarterfinals for a fourth straight World Cup. France has played in the final in each of the last two Cups.

France leads the tournament in goals, attempts on target, and has a ridiculous 18% attempts at goal conversion rate, considering its 73 attempts at goal. Three French players have scored multiple goals: Kylian Mbappé (6), Ousmane Dembélé (4), and Bradley Barcola (2). The multi-faceted attack forces opposing teams to spread their defense thin, which plays to the strength Les Bleus: short, quick passing to set up scoring chances.

After failing to qualify for the World Cup three straight times, Paraguay transformed its national program and  now seems poised to return to the upper echelon of international teams. Paraguay was in the quarterfinals of the World Cup in 2010, and in the Round of 16 in 2002 and 1998. But this roster is mostly filled with fresh names, the faces of a new era in Paraguayan football. That includes attacker Julio Enciso and midfielder Diego Gomez.

Key Match Stats (Paraguay vs France)

• Paraguay struggles to score: it ranks 41st in FIFA matches in its last five outings, having scored just seven goals.
• At 72 percent, Paraguay ranks last in this World Cup in Passing Accuracy. By comparison, France has a 90% Passing Accuracy.
• France is 3-2-0 against Paraguay, but their most recent meeting was in 2017.

Paraguay is averaging just 2 attempts on target per game. Compare that to 8.5 for France. There simply aren't enough skilled scorers to get off great opportunities for Paraguay, especially against the stingy French defensive barrier. That's why I like a low-scoring output (again) for Paraguay. There may be a feeling-out in the first half, but France simply needs to score at least once and keep Paraguay scoreless in the first 45 for me to win this wager.

• France To Win To Nil in First Half (-145, BetMGM)