2026 FIFA World Cup Best Bets (July 6): United States vs. Belgium, Spain vs. Portugal Odds & Prediction

The chants of "USA! USA! USA!" may possess your television this evening when the United States men take on Belgium with a spot in the FIFA World Cup quarterfinals on the line. The temperature for soccer in this country has grown to a fever, as Team USA can go somewhere it hasn't been in a generation.

The first World Cup match will be played between rivals and neighbors Portugal and Spain. The U.S./Belgium match will be played in primetime for much of the country. Oddsmakers have the USA as favorites against an older, more experienced team in Belgium.

(Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images)

I've taken my odds for this article from DraftKings. Before placing your World Cup wagers, check out our Betting Offers for Soccer.

World Cup Odds for Monday, July 6

I was successful on one of my two best bets on Saturday. My World Cup record is 14-18, but I'm up 1.5 units.

Odds via DraftKings

World Cup Best Bets: United States vs. Belgium

The U.S. has already set records in this World Cup: three wins and 10 goals scored are the most ever by an American team in this tournament. A win tonight against Belgium will send the U.S. to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.

Folarin Balogun will play after all

Chances to get to the quarterfinals are better following the surprising reversal (of sorts) of the suspension of Folarin Balogun, the best scoring threat for the U.S.

FIFA ruled that Balogun's suspension can be served later, citing a precedent in a similar ruling regarding Cristiano Ronaldo prior to this World Cup. FIFA ruled that a red card three-match suspension for Ronaldo from a qualifying match could be pushed to after the tournament. Faced with the near-universal contempt of the red card ruling against Balogun (most observers feel the U.S. striker accidentally stepped on the opposing player without malice), FIFA acted similarly in this case.

Belgium may not like it (they don't), but Balogun will be on the pitch tonight as the tip of the spear for the American offense.

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Belgium has been unimpressive in the World Cup

In contrast to the U.S., which has three stellar wins and one meaningless defeat, the Belgians have been uninspiring. During the group stage, Belgium posted two draws and a rout over the lowest-ranked team in the field (New Zealand). In the Round of 32 last week, trailing by a goal in the 89th minute, Belgium found a way to sneak a goal in, and then scored a controversial match-winning penalty shot in extra time.

One could say the Belgians have gotten very lucky. Or one might say the Red Devils are due for a good match. The U.S. has to prepare for this team either way.

The trick with Belgium is that it plays a sleepy style of offense, but when it sees an opening it has the talent to strike quickly. The Belgians long-passing (and line-breaking) passing ability is elite, ranking among the best in the World Cup. The U.S. will need to be alert and utilize speed (and substitution strategy) to win this match.

Key Match Stats (USA vs Belgium)

• The U.S. has gotten off to fast starts: three goals scored in the first 11 minutes of matches, the most from any team in this World Cup.
• Belgium has 75 line-breaking passes, a total exceeded only by England.
• Belgium has 14 shots on goal resulting from line-breaking passes, a total matched only by France in this World Cup entering the Round of 16.
• The U.S. has an xG (Expected Goal Efficiency) of 1.66, the highest rate of the teams still in the World Cup.
• Belgium is averaging 25 crossing passes per match, a total surpasses only by Spain.
• Belgium peppers the goal: 92 Attempts On Goal are the most in the tournament. But only 26 have been On Target.

The U.S. has led in every one of its four matches. Belgium has trailed or never had a lead in three of its four matches. The Red Devils have yet to play a strong match across 90 minutes, and pulled some magic to get past Senegal and earn the right to play the United States.

Through the first 85 minutes of matches, Belgium has been held to either 0 or 1 goal in three of its four matches. That lack of scoring power will cost it against the U.S. (2.5 goals per match). Belgium usually puts up big Shots on Goal numbers, but many are low percentage tries.

I think that uneven play and desperation from long range by Belgium is an indicator of a team that is long in the tooth and under-skilled. The U.S. is quicker and more innovative offensively.

• USA To Win in 90 Minutes (+145, DraftKings)

World Cup Best Bets: Spain vs. Portugal

If you want a match where both teams know each other intimately, this is the one for you. Spain and Portugal have met more than a dozen times in major international tourneys, including last June in the UEFA Nations, when they finished deadlocked 2-2 after 90, and Portugal won 5-3 on penalty kicks.

It's easy to see why Spain is favored: La Roja has not allowed a goal in this tournament. This is a team that could win the World Cup, with potential matches against the U.S., before facing most likely France to earn a spot in the finals. But first, it must push aside Portugal, against which Spain has suffered only two defeats in its last 16 meetings. However, the two Iberian peninsula nations have played to a draw in six of their last seven meetings.

Ronaldo hopes to help carry Portugal to the quarterfinals for the second consecutive World Cup, and it bodes well that the superstar finally got his first-ever knockout stage goal in the recent nail-biter against Croatia.

Key Match Stats (Spain vs Portugal)

• Spain has an edge in xG against Portugal: 8.83 to 5.49
• Spain outshot Austria in the Round of 16, 23-5. Portugal was outshot 6-3 in its win over Croatia.
• Expect Portugal to be on defense often: Spain leads the World Cup in Possession Rate at a whopping 61%.

I've essentially learned my lesson on total goal wagers. There's too much that can happen in a tense tournament like the World Cup that can impact goal scoring. Instead, I'm leaning into Spain's superb defense and goaltending, and the fact that Portugal has only 15 Attempts On Target in four matches. I like Spain to shut out A Seleção in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. But I'll place my money on a Spanish victory in regulation.

• Spain To Win in 90 Minutes (-110, DraftKings)