2026 Las Vegas Aces Win Total: O/U Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

The 2026 WNBA season is two days away, and I will discuss the Las Vegas Aces season outlook, including rosters and over/under win totals and predictions for this season.

(Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Aces are officially in dynasty mode, winning three WNBA championships since 2022. Since their move from San Antonio to Vegas in 2018, they've had one losing season (14-20) in 2018. The team has boasted a winning percentage over .500 for seven consecutive seasons.

Last season, the Aces lost five of their first seven games of the season and struggled to stay above .500 at the All-Star break. The Aces looked all but done after A'ja Wilson suffered a concussion.

Then the energy shifted. At the beginning of August, the Aces went on a tear, winning 16 straight games to close out the regular season. They finished with a 30-14 record and a .682 win percentage. Ultimately, they defeated the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever in the first two rounds and swept the Phoenix Mercury 4-0 to capture their third championship.

Never count the Aces out.

Heading into 2026, the Aces boast the second-best odds (+410 FanDuel) to repeat as WNBA champions. Also, they hold the second-highest win total behind the New York Liberty at 30.5 games.

Let's take a look at the current 2026 WNBA championship odds and over/under win total for the Aces this upcoming season. This article includes offseason moves, free-agent arrivals, departures, and who the Aces selected in the 2026 WNBA Draft.

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2026 WNBA Championship Odds (FanDuel)

• New York Liberty: +250
• Las Vegas Aces: +410
• Indiana Fever: +500
• Atlanta Dream: +550
• Minnesota Lynx: +900
• Los Angeles Sparks: +1500
• Phoenix Mercury: +1800
• Dallas Wings: +2500
• Golden State Valkyries: +3500
• Chicago Sky: +6000
• Washington Mystics: +10000
• Toronto Tempo: +15000
• Seattle Storm: +22500
• Connecticut Sun: +500000
• Portland Fire: +50000

2026 Regular Season Win Total Odds: Las Vegas Aces (FanDuel)

• Over 30.5 (-106)
• Under 30.5 (-114)

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*

Las Vegas Aces: WNBA Free Agency and Offseason Additions/Departures

Free Agency 

• Chennedy Carter, Guard
• Stephanie Talbot, Forward
• Brianna Turner, Forward

Re-Signings

• A'ja Wilson, Forward
• Jackie Young, Guard
• Dana Evans, Guard
• Chelsea Gray, Guard
• Jewell Loyd, Guard
• Kierstan Bell, Forward
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Forward
• NaLyssa Smith, Forward

Drafted

• Janiah Barker, Tennessee, No. 29
• Jordan Obi, Kentucky, No. 44 (Waived)

Departures

• Aaliyah Nye, Expansion Draft: Toronto Tempo
• Kiah Stokes, Golden State Valkyries
• Megan Gustafson, Portland Fire

*Will update once roster cuts have been made official*

Las Vegas Aces: Season Win Total Prediction

• Over 30.5 wins (-106)

The 2025 season was a bit rocky for the Aces, but still resulted in a WNBA championship. Not only was Cheyenne Parker-Tyus out on Maternity leave, but Megan Gustafson missed 22 games with a lower-leg injury. With A'ja Wilson holding down the frontcourt, the Aces traded for NaLyssa Smith and added Jewell Loyd in a bench-scoring role (great move by Hammon)—two key moves that defined their success.

They head into 2026 with high expectations. 31 wins is fair given how dominant the Aces have been, but it's slightly inflated. If they reach 31 wins, Las Vegas can't lose more than 14 games.

Since the WNBA's 44-game expansion in 2023, the Aces set a win record (34) that year, and haven't won over 31 games since. Here are some stats that put this betting line into perspective:

• The Aces were named WNBA champions in 2025 and finished with a 30-14 regular-season record.
• Las Vegas won the 2023 WNBA championship against the New York Liberty in 2023 and posted a 34-6 regular-season record (a franchise best).
• In 2022, the Aces won the WNBA title against the Connecticut Sun and finished with a 26-10 regular season record.

The point I'm making is that the Aces are a dynasty. During their last three championship seasons, they reached over the 30-win threshold just once. During that season, the roster included A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kierstan Bell, all of whom remain employed in Sin City. Although Candace Parker was hurt, Kelsey Plum, Kiah Stokes, Alysha Clark, Sydney Colson, and others rounded out the roster.

The question remains: How will this roster compare to last? The books are asking for 31 wins, which is one more than last year. The Aces retained their core by signing A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd to multi-year deals. Not to mention, Jackie Young became the WNBA's first million-dollar player after earning a one-year, $1.2 million payday.

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How the Aces Improved in the Offseason

There's no question Wilson will get help in the frontcourt, but Turner averaged just 1 PPG with the Fever last season, and Talbot averaged five points and 3.5 rebounds per game on a stacked Liberty team. The Aces core four (Wilson, Young, Gray, Loyd) is powerful enough to keep up with anyone, and perhaps Loyd will get more comfortable in her second season in Vegas, especially if she comes off the bench.

Last season, most of the Aces' wins came in the back end of the season, although they went a combined 4-0 against the Connecticut Sun and Dallas Wings, who have improved their rosters. Additionally, they won a 3-1 series against the Los Angeles Sparks and Golden State Valkyries. They struggled the most against the Minnesota Lynx (1-3), Indiana Fever (1-2), and New York Liberty (1-2).

I personally can't envision Vegas finishing 3-0 against both the Atlanta Dream, who reinforced their lineup with Angel Reese, and the Sky, who completely revamped their roster with Skylar Diggins, Rickea Jackson, Azurá Stevens, and DiJonai Carrington.

Somehow, the Aces finished as the No. 2 seed and boasted a 17-5 record at home, a 13-9 record on the road, and a 16-8 record against conference teams. I'm predicting that the West will actually be a bit easier for Vegas this season. I'm expecting the Dallas Wings to take a step forward after drafting Azzi Fudd and making a splash in free agency.

Can Las Vegas Go Back-to-Back, Again?

The Sparks, in theory, should improve from last season, but I'm expecting the Portland Fire and Seattle Storm to be near the bottom of the standings. Two question marks remain for the Mercury and Lynx. How well can the Lynx survive without Napheesa Collier until June, and how will Phoenix move forward without Satou Sabally?

The Aces have won 117 games in the Becky Hammon era, averaging a .732 win percentage and 29.2 wins since 2022. This season will be intense early on due to the World Cup, and the Aces will have a heavy presence on national television. Additionally, Las Vegas will play just six back-to-back games, but will face a tough road trip to Chicago, Atlanta, Indiana, Minnesota, and New York in August.

Vegas will also face potential contenders such as the Sparks, Wings, and Dream on the road early on in May and June. Despite the difficult schedule, the Aces have, on paper, the star power and depth to repeat. That said, I like the over 30.5 wins here.

Final Pick + Prediction: Las Vegas Aces OVER 30.5 Wins (-106 FanDuel)

Wilson is coming off her fourth MVP, averaging 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 blocks per game during their 16-game win streak. Both Wilson and Young are two of the most elite two-way stars in the WNBA, and let's not forget the chemistry they have.

Over the years, Young continues to solidify herself as one of the best in the game, and the WNBA voted Gray as the best point guard in the GM survey. Chennedy Carter is a scoring bucket despite her past, and is favored to win the Sixth Woman of the Year award.

• Overall, WNBA GMs voted the Aces the most likely (40%) to win the WNBA title and for A'ja Wilson (60%) to win MVP. I'm taking the Aces to record over 30.5 wins. They are healthy, have depth, and Wilson has more help than ever. Now, it all comes down to how it will fit on the court. The Aces have quite a strong and deep roster. Since the league introduced 44 games, the Aces have averaged 30.3 wins over the last three seasons. If they won 30 games last season, I truly believe this team added even more reinforcements.