2026 March Madness Favorites: Final Four Predictions & Best Bets

Coming off a year when all No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, it’d be easy to predict more of the same with another strong group of top seeds this season. But March Madness rarely plays out that way. In fact, it’s only happened twice in NCAA Tournament history.

This year, I believe only two top seeds truly have the path and ability to get there.

(Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

With that, here are my favorite schools to represent each region in the Final Four this year.

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2026 March Madness Midwest Region Favorite: No. 1 Michigan

• -125 to reach Final Four; +380 to win championship (FanDuel)

Like many others, I’ve been riding the Michigan bandwagon (31-3, 19-2 Big Ten) since November. Even though its no longer viewed as the best team in the country after a February loss to Duke, the Wolverines are still my clear favorite to not only reach the Final Four but win the national championship.

I could throw out a ton of stats or write a novel about why this should be Michigan’s year. According to KenPom, the Wolverines have the best defense in the country to go along with a top-10 offense (No. 8). But what really stands out is how battle-tested they are, ranking third nationally in strength of schedule.

In nonconference and neutral-site games, Michigan has blown out multiple NCAA Tournament teams — Gonzaga, Villanova, TCU and McNeese — with its only loss coming in a tight game against Duke.

Will L.J. Cason’s injury impact a deep NCAA Tournament run?

Was I concerned when L.J. Cason tore his ACL in late February? Of course. But it also brought me back to why I liked this Michigan team in the first place, and that reason is its depth.

It’s obvious this team has star power, with Yaxel Lendeborg (14.6 PPG, 7 RPG), Morez Johnson Jr. (13.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG), Aday Mara (11.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Elliot Cadeau (10.2 PPG, 5.6 APG) all expected to produce. But what stands out more is it doesn't need one of those guys to have a huge night to win. Their balanced scoring attack, along with bench pieces who could start at other programs, allows the Wolverines to win in different ways.

Having seniors like Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Will Tschetter coming off the bench has been a luxury for most of the season. Now, with one of their better players out, it becomes a necessity.

When you back Michigan, you’re backing the best defensive, most battle-tested and deepest team in the tournament.

2026 March Madness South Region Favorite: No. 3 Illinois

• +380 to reach Final Four (FanDuel)

I really like all of the No. 3 seeds this year, but Illinois stands out the most.

Why The Illinois offense sets it apart

For starters, the Fighting Illini have an elite offense — historically elite, in fact. They’re averaging 84.4 points per game in a loaded Big Ten and have put together one of the most efficient offenses in KenPom history (since 1996-97), trailing only Purdue this season.

They also dominate the glass, ranking third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (38.4%), which leads to a ton of second-chance points. What makes Illinois especially dangerous is its combination of size and spacing, running a five-out system with bigs like Tomislav Ivisic and David Mirkovic who can stretch the floor.

Add in a balanced scoring attack with all five starters averaging double figures, led by Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and Mirkovic (13.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG), and it's evolved into an offense that’s become extremely difficult to prepare for — especially in a tournament setting.

Breaking down the Illini’s path in the NCAA Tournament

Illinois also profiles as a No. 3 seed with a relatively favorable path. No disrespect to Houston, that would be a tough matchup, especially with what would essentially be a home-court advantage in the Sweet 16, but Florida looks like the weakest No. 1 seed. According to KenPom, the Gators’ efficiency rating (33.79) trails the other top seeds, all of whom are at 37.5 or higher.

Of course, the Illini still have to get that far and win twice this upcoming weekend.

They open the NCAA Tournament against Ivy League champion Penn and former rival head coach Fran McCaffery. For obvious reasons that I don't feel the need to dig into, this should be a win.

If they advance, they’d likely see the winner of North Carolina vs. VCU. North Carolina grades out as the weakest No. 6 seed by several metrics and is without star freshman Caleb Wilson. I have VCU pulling off the upset, but either way, a matchup against an 11-seed is favorable.

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2026 March Madness East Region Favorite: No. 1 Duke

• -125 to reach Final Four (FanDuel)

I know, it’s no fun to pick Duke. But I just don’t see this season ending any other way than with the Blue Devils in the Final Four.

Why Duke is still the team to beat

Duke ranks as the best team in the country, according to KenPom, and one of the most efficient teams in the metric’s history — ironically trailing only last year’s Duke team. The Blue Devils have the No. 4 offense and No. 2 defense, with key wins over Michigan, Florida and Michigan State.

At this point, it’s no secret who drives it all: Cameron Boozer. The 6-foot-9 freshman forward has been dominant this season, averaging 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.

How recent injuries could impact the NCAA Tournament run

The main concern is the health of the supporting cast. Starting point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba II have both been dealing with injuries.

I’m not overly concerned about Foster, who is reportedly out for the season. He’s Duke’s fourth-leading scorer, averaging 8.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 25.4 minutes per game.

With Foster out during the ACC Tournament, Duke leaned on Boozer’s twin brother, freshman guard Cayden Boozer. He struggled against Florida State but bounced back with strong performances against Clemson and Virginia, including 16 points, five rebounds and four assists against the Cavaliers while playing heavy minutes.

Ngongba’s foot injury is more worth monitoring. That said, recent reports indicate he should be back within the first two rounds. Even if he misses early games, it shouldn’t become an issue unless there’s a setback later in the tournament.

Not to mention, the Blue Devils got the job done to win the ACC Tournament without both guys.

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2026 March Madness West Region Favorite: No. 4 Arkansas

• +950 to reach Final Four (FanDuel)

This is the toughest region to call, mainly because I trust the top six seeds — it just comes down to who beats who late.

Arkansas’ offense, Acuff Jr. can single-handedly carry a deep NCAA Tournament run

Arkansas is my most unconventional pick to win its region, but is it really that much of a stretch?

The Razorbacks just won a loaded SEC Tournament and have arguably the best point guard in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. (22.9 PPG, 6.5 APG), who’s capable of taking over a game at any moment. Obviously, that elite guard play matters in March, especially in tight, late-game situations.

Acuff gets all the love for good reason but I'm also impressed with his supporting cast this year, which is filled with talent like Meleek Thomas (15.4 PPG, 1.5 SPG), Trevon Brazile (13.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and Billy Richmond III (11 PPG, 1.4 SPG)

They’ve taken eight losses this season, but all have come against high-level competition — Duke, Florida, Houston, Michigan State and Alabama - which speaks to how battle-tested this group is heading into the tournament.

Arkansas ranks as the No. 5 offense in the country and is peaking at the right time. It plays with pace, can score at all three levels and has multiple guys who can create their own shot, which makes it tough to game plan for on short turnarounds.

John Calipari’s squad has more than enough firepower to make a deep run, and if it gets hot offensively, it is the type of team that can beat anyone in the field.

The question is whether the defense (48th nationally) can hold up in such a tough region, and that’s something we’ll find out soon enough.

Like I said earlier, this is the region that's been the toughest to predict for me. I think both Arkansas and Gonzaga (+800 FanDuel) to reach the Final Four present great value.