2026 MLB AL Central Odds & Predictions: Detroit Tigers Favored to End 12-Year Title Drought

This comparison might be a bit out there, but in many ways, the MLB AL Central mirrored the NFL’s AFC North last season: cold, blue-collar cities that hosted teams with strong defenses paired with offenses that ranged from average to league-worst.

Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers (Getty Images)

That’s exactly what we’re getting in the AL Central. Cities like Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago (not the nice part) embody that gritty identity and then a combination of strong pitching and average to league-worst lineups tell the same story.

From a bettor’s perspective, I’ll be looking to play the under often when these teams take the field.

With that said, let’s get into the team-by-team breakdown, with my win total picks for each. I’ve got them ordered by how I see the division shaking out.

Odds for this article and baseball betting are all from FanDuel. Consult our other previews to learn about the AL West, AL East, and NL races (West, Central, East).

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2026 MLB Season Team Odds to Win American League (AL) Central

These odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook:

1.  Detroit Tigers (-105)
2.  Kansas City Royals (+210)
3.  Cleveland Guardians (+470)
4. Minnesota Twins (+1300)
5. Chicago White Sox (+2500)

AL Central Team MLB Previews 2026

Detroit Tigers (87-75, 2nd place AL Central, 2025)

The Tigers are favorites in the AL Central this year, and for good reason. Coming off a heartbreaking ALDS game 7 loss in Toronto, Detroit will be looking for vengeance in 2026 behind a dominant starting rotation of Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander, and veteran free agent addition Framber Valdez.

It goes without saying that the pitching staff should produce a lot of wins, as it did last year.

However, the real question is whether or not this young core on offense will hit consistently. Although the Tigers ranked average across most team hitting metrics in 2025, they do have some pop in their lineup, primarily from Riley Greene. At just 25-years old, Greene has improved his numbers every year he’s been in the bigs before breaking out last season with a career-high 36 home runs.

Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter put up good slugging numbers, and both should contribute again if the guys around them can get on consistently. Carpenter, specifically, is a popular breakout candidate, with his numbers against right-handed pitching last year (23 HRs, .812 OPS) and improvements against lefties, making him a matchup nightmare.

All of those guys stayed relatively healthy and had good seasons, and yet it still wasn’t a top-10 offense. So what would make them top-10? It’d have to be the emergence of Kevin McGonigle - MLB’s Pipelines's second-best overall prospect and heavy favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year.

On Detroit’s opening day against San Diego, the 21-year-old hitting phenom went 4-5 with two doubles and two RBIs.

I think we’re in the early stages of seeing an All-Star duo with Greene and McGonigle. After going 87-75 last year with an improved rotation and a lineup with a ton of potential, give me the Tigers over on their win total.

MLB AL Central Prediction: Detroit Tigers

• Detroit Tigers - Over 87.5 wins (-106, FanDuel); to win AL Central (-105, FanDuel)

I’m not going to overthink this one, as they are the one offense in the AL Central that I could see taking a big step. I’ll also take them to win the division.

Kansas City Royals (82-80, 3rd place AL Central, 2025)

Although they finished above .500, last season was a step in the wrong direction for the Kansas City Royals, coming off a playoff appearance in 2024.

In my opinion, the Royals are the most unpredictable team in the division. I love the talent in the rotation, but health is a real concern, so this could go a few different ways.

Ace Cole Ragans returned from a rotator cuff strain last September and might have an innings limit, but when he’s right, he’s a top-15 pitcher in the MLB. I’ve read in camp reports that he’s still tweaking his pitch mix, but with his stuff, there really aren’t many wrong answers.

Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo both started strong and completely fell apart in 2025, with Lugo’s season cut short by injury. And then there’s Kris Bubic, who looked great before another rotator cuff issue.

Although they’re projected to be about average offensively as they didn’t add much, I do trust the top of the order. WBC MVP Maikel Garcia (.800 OPS, 5.8 WAR) will hit at the top of the order in front of All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. again this year. That combination worked last year, and I expect it to work again if both can stay healthy.

Notably, I believe Witt has the potential to join the 50-50 club this year with Kansas City moving its ballpark’s fence forward by 10 feet.

Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are both coming off 30-plus HR seasons, and Jac Caglianone had a rough rookie season but has the potential to produce more power in the middle of the order.

The Royals’ offseason pickups — Lane Thomas, Isaac Collins, and Starling Marte — should also give manager Matt Quatraro better right-left balance in his lineups with more platoon opportunities for Kyle Isbel and Caglianone in the outfield.

MLB AL Central Prediction: Kansas City Royals

• Kansas City Royals - Over 82.5 wins (-122 FanDuel)

With 82 wins last season, I think it’s fair to expect the Royals to take a step forward, but I’m back and forth. Like I said, it will likely depend on how healthy their starting rotation is.

Cleveland Guardians (88-74, 1st place AL Central, 2025)

Headed into September last season, the Guardians looked dead in the water at 69-70, well behind Detroit in the division standings. That was before the Guards went on an improbable 20-5 run to finish September and take hold of the division to host a wildcard playoff series against Detroit, where they’d lose 2-1.

Last year was shocking for Cleveland, to say the least. I believe the Guardians' first five months in 2025 were a more accurate representation of how good the roster is. The playoff push in that final month did prove some things about their young pitching core.

In September, both Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee broke out completely, combining to lead the team to eight straight wins without a loss despite minimal run support.

We should expect to see that momentum at the end of last season carry into this one. In the long-term, those two should lead this rotation for years to come ahead of Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick.

Offensively, Cleveland’s lineup consists of three players who posted a wRC+ over 100 last season and four players who posted a wRC+ under 90.

Of course, Jose Ramirez is still one of the best pure hitters in the league, coming off a 2025 where he clobbered 30 homers while posting a .283 average. Steven Kwan is coming off a down year for his high standards (.705 OPS, 60 Ks), but I do expect him to bounce back as a reliable table-setter for Ramirez, a role he’s thrived in throughout his career.

Kyle Manzardo will contribute with power, 27 home runs last year, and could certainly take another step.

However, outside of those three, I don’t really trust this lineup that much.

Top prospect and rookie Chase DeLauter is realistically the only other guy that could make this projected below-average offense in the upper echelon by October.

MLB AL Central Prediction: Cleveland Guardians

• Cleveland Guardians - Under 79.5 wins (-114, FanDuel)

Despite being a firm believer in this pitching staff, the unbalanced lineup and lack of depth overall make me think Cleveland finishes just below .500.

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Chicago White Sox (60-102, 5th place AL Central, 2025)

Coming off two very bad seasons, the White Sox do not have big expectations but are undoubtedly better on paper heading into 2026.

While the starting pitching still might be severely lacking (they should have never traded Garrett Crochet, but that’s a story for another day), the south siders should see upgrades both offensively and in their bullpen.

Offensively, adding Munetaka Murakami over the offseason and having top prospect Colson Montgomery hitting well for a full season could give their lineup the jolt it needed in the last couple of years.

It was shocking to see Murakami go to the White Sox, but I liked it. I think it’s good for the MLB when highly regarded international prospects choose to sign with worse or smaller market teams.

For the bullpen, adding Seranthony Dominguez gives this group some veteran experience it’s lacked, Jordan Leasure is a trustworthy set-up guy, and the upside with Jordan Hicks is certainly there.

However, it’s also likely that if any of these relievers do pitch well, there’s a good chance they’ll be shipped at the trade deadline to add to their ascending farm system.

MLB AL Central Prediction: Chicago White Sox

• Chicago White Sox - Over 67.5 wins (-102, FanDuel)

After years of losing, and although they’re still in the midst of a rebuild, I believe the White Sox could surprise people this season. By surprising people, I mean they can win over 70 games.

Minnesota Twins (70-92, 4th place AL Central, 2025)

I’m keeping this section short and simple because that’s most likely how Minnesota’s season will go.

Outside of another good season statistically from Byron Buxton (35 HRs, .878 OPS in 2025) and Joe Ryan (3.42 ERA, 194 Ks in 2025), there are unfortunately not many positive things to write about for the 2026 Twins.

In recent years, the Twins’ offensive output seems to almost always come down to whether Buxton and Royce Lewis can stay healthy. Buxton played most of last season, but Lewis has had trouble staying on the field his entire career and is coming off his worst offensive season in 2025 (83 OPS+).

After a fire sale last season at the trade deadline, the organization is completely adopting a rebuild, and we’re still witnessing the early stages. With that said, I’m going to fully fade their win total.

MLB AL Central Prediction: Minnesota Twins

• Minnesota Twins - Under 71.5 wins (-106, FanDuel)

Although the White Sox (+2500 FanDuel) are the biggest underdogs to win the division, Minnesota would be my pick to finish in last place if I could bet on it. This may not only be the worst in the division - they could be the worst team in the MLB.