2026 MLB Season Preview: AL East Odds & Predictions — Yankees At The Top

The American League appears wide open as we enter the 2026 MLB season. Baseball betting is back. I can't wait to share my picks weekly for the season.

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Today I preview the AL East, with odds on division winner, as well as win totals for each of the five teams. Once again, this division should be competitive. Last season, three teams from the AL East made the playoffs.

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2026 MLB Team Odds to Win the AL East

These odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook:

• New York Yankees ... +175
• Boston Red Sox ... +280
• Toronto Blue Jays ... +310
• Baltimore Orioles ... +400
• Tampa Bay Rays ... +2000

Why the favorite can win: The Yankees can outscore teams, pounding out home runs and submitting opponents. That's the path to a division title for the Bronx Bombers, who still have questions in the pitching department.

Longshot with a chance: The Rays. Yes, the Rays. Oddsmakers list them at 200-to-1 (+2000) to cop the AL East. But, last season this team was not TERRIBLE. It was flawed. And every team in the AL East is flawed. The Yankees can't field the ball. The Red Sox have a shaky bullpen. The Orioles have an unproven core of the lineup. The Blue Jays may struggle to get good pitching from innings 1-5.

Yes, the Rays could win the 90-something games needed to finish in first place, especially considering how well their staff gets strikeouts and groundouts. Only three years ago this franchise won 99 games. At +2000, it's worth a $10 bet as the season starts.

2026 AL East Team Previews

Odds reveal the Yankees as favorites, but the AL East is wide open for three, maybe four teams. This market has great opportunity for recording a winning MLB futures bet. Don't follow your gut or team allegiance, pick a team with the best chance to be a winning wager.

NY Yankees

What can we say about the Yankees? This is a roster built to accumulate home runs over six months, pitching just well enough, catching the baseball just well enough to win the requisite games to make the playoffs. That keeps the Yankees relevant. But it hasn't resulted in a memorable postseason since Derek Jeter was still in spikes.

Oh, what would George Steinbrenner say about his team now? The Yankees are at least second to the Dodgers in franchise power, and arguably even below their rivals the Red Sox. This century the championship record reads: Boston 4, Yankees 1.

Aaron Judge will do Aaron Judge things. But the rest of the lineup here is a year older basically. There's enough talent for many of them to send a baseball over an outfield wall 20-30 times. But at what cost? If the lineup is all-or-nothing, that usually won't win in October. And October is what matters to Yankee fans. I have many friends who are Yankee fans, and they like Judge. But according to them, the word that best describes this era of Yankee baseball is "MEH."

New York's biggest weakness entering 2026 is the starting rotation, which is only stocked four-deep as the season starts. Aaron Boone will evidently use the off days early to use a four-man rotation, with the occasional "opener" from among the nine(!) bullpen arms. That might work. But you can also plant potatoes and hope for oranges. It's not likely.

I would go UNDER on Yankee wins, and also stay away from money on the Yanks to win the division. The odds just aren't high enough for my taste. I'd put it more at +220, but it's being priced more in the +150 to +180 range currently. If the Yankees stumble early and To Win the AL East changes to a more favorable number, jump at it.

• AL East Bet & Prediction: Under 91.5 Wins: -110 (Caesars)

Red Sox

No other team has as many young position players who can make an impact as the Red Sox. This season we could see Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, or Roman Anthony break out to superstar status. Then there's Jarren Duran, who still hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Don't sleep on third baseman Caleb Durbin. He's the best all-around third baseman the Sox have had since Wade Boggs.

Boston can score runs in multiple ways (slugging, base-to-base), and the pitching staff is deeper than that of the Yankees. The Sox are my pick to rise to the top of the AL East in 2026.

• AL East Bet & Prediction: To Win 90+ Games: +116 (FanDuel)

Blue Jays

The defending AL champs added some punch to the lineup by signing international free agent Kazuma Okamoto. The Japanese slugger is going to make an impact. He won't be Bo Bichette, who was lost to free agency, but Okamoto might be just as valuable based on Wins Above Replacement.

The Jays didn't do much to bolster the bullpen, which is one of the best in baseball, with the addition of Tyler Rogers the notable exception. If I was a Toronto fan I'd worry about the starting rotation: Max Scherzer is more statue now than effective pitcher. Cody Ponce is apparently going to start, but hasn't pitched in the big leagues in five seasons.

Kevin Gausman has pitched 595 innings the last three years, which is a third of the innings for his entire 13-year career. And he's 35 years old. Clearly, I am not sold on Toronto's starting pitching. But that doesn't mean the Jays can't patch a few things together and win 85-90 games and get to the postseason. At that point anything can happen, especially when Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are wielding the lumber.

• AL East Bet & Prediction: Under 88.5 Wins: -115 (Caesars)

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Remaining AL East Teams

Orioles

Most modern MLB fans think of the Orioles as an also-ran, a strange franchise with nice uniforms and a great ballpark. But there was a time when the O's were the standard-bearer in baseball. For about two decades from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s, Baltimore averaged 90 wins and won several pennants. Those teams were famously built on pitching, defense, and the three-run homer.

The Orioles in 2026 are hoping to find the pitching to climb up the standings. Last season the team posted a 4.86 ERA, and that was mostly due to dreadful performances from its 3-5 starters. This year, Trevor Rogers will be in line for 30 starts, and Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt have been gathered in to provide better middle of rotation work.

At the plate, keep an eye on Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Colten Cowser. Those three players could have big years, and the first few weeks might be the time to see if offseason preparation is triggering a spark. The presence of Pete Alonso should give Henderson better pitches to hit.

• AL East Bet & Prediction: Over 85.5 Wins: -110 (Caesars)

Rays

Here's a projected lineup for Tampa:

• Yandy Diaz, DH
• Jonathan Aranda, 1B
• Cedric Mullins, CF
• Junior Caminero, 3B
• Jake Fraley/Jonny DeLuca, RF
• Richie Palacios/Ben Williamson, 2B
• Nick Fortes, C
• Chandler Simpson/Ryan Vilade, LF
• Carson Williams, SS

Earl Weaver, the former Hall of Fame manager of the Orioles, used to say his best positions were platoon arrangements. The Rays have embraced the idea of role players, or making a sort of "Frankenstein's monster" of parts at whichever spot on the diamond it must. The three platoons have a chance to be as good as anything other teams have at those positions in the AL East.

You don't know who Carson Williams is. He sounds like a furniture store. But, you will know him. Williams is the 22-year old prospect who won the shortstop job this spring. He has a strong arm and is quick in the field. He's not just a glove: Williams projects as a better-than-average hitter: he hit between 19 and 23 home runs as a pro from age 19-22.

• AL East Bet & Prediction: Over 76.5 Wins: -135 (Caesars)