2026 MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets: Phillies vs. Braves, Home Run & Player Props (Oct. 1)

The Wild Card round of the MLB Playoffs comes to an end today when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet in Game 3. The winner gets to play the two-time World Series champion Dodgers. The loser has to pack their bags for the offseason.

What a way to start my MLB postseason betting: I was 4-1 with my prop bets on Wednesday. In all, I finished up $1,028.50, and hit on two of my To Hit Home Run player props.

Want to try for similar success? Check out our reviews of the best MLB baseball betting apps for the Wild Card, player props, and World Series futures bets.

(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

2026 MLB Wild Card Betting Odds For Thursday, Oct. 1

(Odds via DraftKings)

Best Bets for NL Wild Card

It's rare that a road team is favored in a winner-take-all MLB Playoff game. But, oddsmakers are pricing the Phils as slight favorites. That's because they have two ace pitchers to choose from: Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola.

Wheeler is a generational pitcher with filthy stuff. He's on his game: in his last six starts the big righty is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA, and a nasty 45-to-9 K/BB ratio. On Sept. 22 he struck out 11 Milwaukee batters in a dominant outing. But Wheeler pitched six innings last Sunday, which means he would be pitching on three days: which he has never done.

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Nola pitched on two days rest last Saturday as part of Phils manager Don Mattingly's Panic Plan to clinch a playoff spot. It backfired: Nola survived only one inning. He would be on four days rest, but which veteran pitcher will Donnie Baseball choose for this crucial game?

Since it is not yet confirmed as of filing time, I'm staying away from game outcome bets. Though I do like the OVER in RUNS as the bullpens are likely to be tired on Thursday.

J.T. Realmuto To Hit a Home Run

The type of game J.T. Realmuto has on Thursday may depend quite a bit on which pitcher starts for the Phils. This season, Realmuto started 15 of Nola's 33 starts. The pitcher had a 5.14 ERA pitching to Realmuto. But when Garrett Stubbs was behind the plate, Nola's ERA was a glimmering 2.82 (in 12 starts).

Mattingly may choose Stubbs if Nola is indeed the Game 3 starter. If so, Realmuto will DH. Which gives him more time to focus on swinging the bat. J.T. Realmuto has seven postseason home runs, including two against the Braves, and one of those in Atlanta three years ago in the NL Division Series.

• J.T Realmuto To Hit a Home Run (+730 from BetMGM)

Alec Bohm 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI

The hitting star this series so far on the Phils side is tall, lanky Alec Bohm, the man they call "The Giraffe." Bohm had a double and an RBI in Game 1 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Bohm had a single, home run, RBI, and a run scored.

In the two games Bohm has a total of 6 Hits+Runs+RBI. I like hime to keep swinging a hot bat (he's the only batter with three balls hit over 100 MPH in the series).

• Alec Bohm 3+ Hits+Runs+RBI (+210 from FanDuel)

Phillies vs. Braves Over 7.5 Runs

Don Mattingly has managed his pitching staff brilliantly in this series. Sure, some critics have harped on his decision to use his best reliever, Jhoan Duran, in the seventh inning. But he had to do that: winning Game 1 is so important in a three-game series. The move simply didn't work, but it was the correct decision.

Wednesday, Mattingly used only three pitchers in a 10-inning game. His final piece was rookie Andrew Pointer, who tossed three shutout frames. That means he has a fairly well-rested pen, and can even lean on Duran when needed late in the game.

But, as we can tell by the decisions he made in the first two games, the Phils manager does not trust some of the bullpen arms he has in his clubhouse. That's why I think Game 3 will see more strain (on both) bullpens. As a result, I like the Over on the Total Runs line.

• Phillies vs Braves, Over 7.5 Runs (+100 from DraftKings)

Looking Ahead to the MLB Division Series

By Saturday we will have our final eight teams, and all four series will open that day. The Division Series round is best-of-five.

• Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, Saturday, Oct. 3, 1 p.m. ET on TBS
• Phillies/Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 3, 4 p.m. ET on FOX & FOXONE
• New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday, Oct. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS
• San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday, Oct. 3, 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1