2026 NBA Finals Dark Horse Odds: Nuggets, Pistons, and Lakers Lead Long Shot Picks

Winning more money is always preferred when it comes to betting on the NBA or any other sport. But when it comes to winning or losing, the amount you win is secondary to not losing. So, if you wanted to bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA Finals, go right ahead. No one will fault you.

However, in the back of your mind you’ll wonder if maybe you should have taken a shot on someone. Dark horses and long shots have been known to win the NBA championship in years past. Why not this season? Crazier things have happened…

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With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest odds to win the NBA Finals.

2026 NBA Finals Winner Odds

Here are the latest NBA Finals odds for the top 10 contenders as listed at BetMGM:

• Oklahoma City Thunder +125
• San Antonio Spurs +450
• Boston Celtics +550
• Denver Nuggets +1000
• Cleveland Cavaliers +1600
• Detroit Pistons +2000
• New York Knicks +2000
• Houston Rockets +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves +8000
• Atlanta Hawks +10000

But since we are talking about dark horses and long shots in this post, it seems appropriate to go a little deeper:

• Charlotte Hornets +10000
• Philadelphia 76ers +15000
• Orlando Magic +25000
• Toronto Raptors +25000
• Los Angeles Lakers +25000

The remaining teams all have odds of +50000 or longer (Warriors, Clippers, Suns, Heat, and Trail Blazers).

In a perfect world, the best team(s) will end up competing in the NBA Finals for the right to be called champions. But while being the best during the regular season gets you home-court advantage, it does not guarantee you anything once the playoffs get underway — just ask the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks.

They were a No. 1 seed and the betting favorite heading into the first round that year. Milwaukee lost to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round, 4-1.

History does shine down rather favorably on the No. 1 seeds, but they don’t always win. Four of the last 10 champions were not No. 1 seeds heading into the postseason. Go back another 10 seasons, and four of those 10 winners were not No. 1 seeds.

NBA Finals Winner Odds: My Dark Horse/Long Shot Pick(s)

So, while it may seem unlikely, a No. 1 seed is far from a lock to win. But their propensity to win allows everyone else to be considered either a dark-horse or a long-shot pick. However, to keep this interesting, only teams with odds of +1000 or longer will be considered for inclusion.

Denver Nuggets +1000

This one barely qualifies under my own self-imposed restrictions, but it qualifies, nonetheless. It is really pretty easy to make a case for Denver to win it all. As long as Nikola Jokic is healthy, it'll compete with anyone. Add Jamaal Murray to the mix, and the Nuggets have potentially the most dangerous duo in the NBA in their lineup.

They finished the season with the No. 1 offense in the NBA (122.1 points per game), shot close to 50% from the floor (49.6%), shot 39.6% from 3-point range (No. 1 in the NBA), and were top five in defensive rebounds and assists. But their defense could be their fatal flaw (116.9 points allowed per game; No. 21 in the league).

Detroit Pistons +2000

It seems a little crazy to me that the No. 1 seed has longer odds to win the NBA Finals (+2000) than a Boston team it beat in three of four games (+550) and a Cavaliers team it split the season series with (2-2). The Celtics also split their series with the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1), so we know they can compete with the potential Western Conference representative.

To be fair, the Pistons were kind of a surprise team this season. Back in June, their odds were pretty long (+6600). But then they exploded out of the gate with 15 wins in their first 17 games and never looked back. After losing superstar Cade Cunningham to an injury, they went on to win eight of 11 before he returned.

That tells me this team can play and compete. On the offensive end (117.8 points per game), they ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. But on the defensive end, they were in the top three in points per game allowed (109.6) and top two in defensive rating (108.9).

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Los Angeles Lakers +25000

The Cavaliers, Hawks, Knicks, and maybe the Hornets are worth mentioning in this conversation, but I’d be overlooking the obvious if I did not include the Los Angeles Lakers. Prior to Luka Dončić going down with a hamstring injury and Austin Reaves (oblique) shortly after, the Lakers had +3000 odds to win the title this year.

Those odds would have put them in this conversation, but the Lakers' defensive rating has been in the bottom half of the league while they have ranked in or near the top 10 in scoring for most of the season. With that in mind, at +3000, I’d say pass. However, at +25000, if they can last long enough to get Dončić back, this team immediately becomes the best value play in all of sports.

But the odds will undoubtedly drop the second his return to the court is announced. So, you'll have to decide whether the Rockets can take care of the Lakers before he can return. Once he does (if he does), it becomes a whole new series.