2026 NBA Finals: Knicks vs. Spurs Game 3 Best Bets & Odds (June 8)

The New York Knicks will try to move within a game of the franchise’s first NBA title in over 50 years when they host the San Antonio Spurs today in Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden. Since 1984, teams that won Games 1 and 2 of a best-of-seven series on the road went on to win the series 87% of the time (27-4). But those who went on to win Game 3 at home went undefeated (15-0).

So, history is now in the Knicks’ corner, which does not bode well for the Spurs. But does that mean the Spurs are down and out? Of course not! However, the margin for error has become razor-thin. Let’s take a look at the odds and discuss how this game may play out.

(Photo by David L. Nemec/NBAE via Getty Images)

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NBA Finals Game 3 Best Bets: Knicks vs. Spurs Odds

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-118) | New York Knicks -2.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +110 | New York Knicks -130
• Total: O/U 215.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via DraftKings

Leading up to Game 1, there was a lot of talk about the Spurs being ahead of schedule by getting to the NBA Finals and being favored to win. As impressive as they were in the Western Conference Finals, it was easy to understand why. It’s one thing to win games, but another to come through in the clutch and win when you must, as they did in Games 6 and 7.

But now that we are two games into the NBA Finals, much of that talk has subsided. After losing Games 1 and 2 at home, the story has changed. Heading into Game 3, San Antonio has a 20.83% chance of winning the Finals still (+380).

Of course, this percentage doesn’t really take into consideration the fact that no team has lost Games 1 and 2 at home and still won the NBA Finals. Of the 31 teams in a best-of-seven series that fell into a similar 0-2 hole, only five managed to mount a successful comeback.

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Many are not giving up on the Spurs, of course, and rightfully so. Perhaps, if the Knicks win Game 3 tonight, the conversation will shift to something that should not have been ignored — New York’s experience.

The starting five (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges) have been together for the last two seasons, with several players on the roster even longer. They’ve been doing battle in the postseason each of the last four years, making it to the conference finals in the last two (including this year).

There is a lot to be said for the talent the San Antonio Spurs have on their roster. But there is also a lot to be said for playoff battle-tested talent like the New York Knicks have on their team.

NBA Finals Game 3 Best Bets: Knicks vs. Spurs Picks

This game will probably play out in one of three ways:

1. The veteran Knicks will continue to outclass the young Spurs and win Game 3.
2. The Spurs come out laser-focused as they did in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the WCF, and dominate the game, or
3. San Antonio picks up its game and plays better, but the Knicks don’t back down. So we have another instant classic on our hands.

With what we have seen from Brunson, Towns, and the rest of the Knicks, it is not hard to see No. 1 coming to fruition. They’ve got a defensive rating of 103.1 for the postseason, and an offensive one of 121.2. Of their 16 postseason games, the Knicks held the opposition to under 100 points in eight and scored 120+ in six.

No. 2 is certainly a possibility, as we’ve already seen the Spurs do it. They were down and out after losing Game 5 vs. the Thunder. But they roared back in Game 6 and shut down a team that averaged 119 points per game during the regular season.

But I’m betting No. 3 is the scenario we actually see tonight.

My Pick: Under 215.5 (-105, DraftKings)

Close, hard-fought games are great to watch, but tough to predict. If they were easy to predict, then they probably wouldn’t be too hard-fought or fun to watch. While I expect to see a better game out of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and the rest of the Spurs, the Knicks are not going to back down. Who is going to win? That's a great question. How high will the score be? That's an easier one to answer.

Much like Games 1 and 2, this game will be a defensive battle, with the winner being whoever makes the fewest mistakes. Such a game can only have one outcome, a low-scoring one. Take the under.

My Alternate NBA Finals Game 3 Picks:

• Spurs ML (+110, DraftKings)

Their chances are already slim. But if San Antonio does not win this game, the series might as well be over. It is technically not a must-win situation since it is only Game 3. But if the Spurs are going to get back in this series, it starts with a win in tonight’s game. We saw them rally in Game 6 against the Thunder. They’ll do so against the Knicks tonight.

• First Half Total, Under 110.5  (-102, DraftKings)

We have two excellent offensive teams here, but their respective defenses have been centerstage. There is no reason to think tonight will be any different. In Game 1, they combined for 103 points at the break, and in Game 2, 108 points. Expect something similar tonight.