2026 NBA Finals: Knicks vs. Spurs Game 4 Best Bets, Odds and Picks (June 10)

The San Antonio Spurs will try to turn the NBA Finals into a best-of-three series tonight when they face the New York Knicks in Game 4 at Madison Square Garden in the Big Apple. In doing so, they would move a step closer to making history by overcoming two home losses to start the series.

But the Spurs are not the only ones trying to make history here. The Knicks hold the record for the longest championship drought by an NBA team in its original city: 52 seasons (the Sacramento Kings won in 1951 as the Rochester Royals; the Hawks hailed from St. Louis when they won in 1958).

(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Of course, if either is going to be successful in their bid to make history, they have to do one thing: play Game 4.

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NBA Finals Best Bets: Knicks vs. Spurs Game 4 Odds

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-115) | New York Knicks -2.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +114 | New York Knicks -134
• Total: O/U 216.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

So, what happened in Game 3? It was supposed to be an iconic night for the Knicks, the first NBA Finals game at home since the last millennium (1999). Surely, destiny was going to be on their side.

Apparently, destiny couldn’t account for Victor Wembanyama (32 points, eight rebounds, and six assists). Nor did the Knicks have an answer for Stephon Castle (23 points, five rebounds, and five assists). Between the two of them, Wemby and Castle shot 59% from the floor, a far cry from Games 1 and 2 when they shot closer to 40%.

But, while vital to the cause, they didn’t do it alone. All five starters scored in double digits, along with Dylan Harper (with 13 points) off the bench. It was more than just the scoring, though. San Antonio moved the ball really well (28 assists) and cut down on the mistakes (eight turnovers).

As for the Knicks, they didn’t necessarily have a bad night. Jalen Brunson had 32 points. OG Anunoby had 28, four of five starters scored in double digits, along with a fifth off the bench (Jordan Clarkson, 10 points). New York won the rebound battle despite Karl-Anthony Towns only having eight, 46-37, and had a better night in the paint (46-44).

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The most significant disparity between the two teams from a statistical perspective was in assists (28-18), turnovers (8-13), and points conceded off turnovers (7-21). But the Knicks led by seven at the half and were in position to possibly win in the final seconds of the game, down by three (111-108).

Had one or two plays gone differently, we’d be looking at Game 4 in an entirely different light. That leads me to one final question: Was Game 3 a sign of things to come or an isolated incident?

My NBA Finals Game 4 Pick(s):

During the regular season, the Knicks were a solid offensive (118.9 offensive rating; tied with the Spurs for No. 3) and defensive (112.3 rating, No. 7) team. They were good, but great? Nah. But then they found a way to elevate their play in the postseason to an impressive level. This resulted in an 11-game win streak heading into the NBA Finals (123.3 offensive rating, 103.5 defensive rating; both No. 1).

The way they raised their level of play on both ends of the court has been impressive. But with how Game 3 played out, I can’t help but think of some comments Victor Wembanyama made early in the Western Conference Finals. He gave the Thunder credit for ratcheting up the defensive pressure on him. But then he questioned whether the intensity would be sustainable.

In Game 1, the Knicks rated 105.0 on the offensive end and 96.0 on defense, an intense level of play on par with what we’ve seen from them in the postseason. Hence, another strong, double-digit win (105-95). But then, in Game 2, the intensity dropped (offensive rating: 108.2; defensive rating: 105.1). They had a nine-point lead heading into the fourth. Despite getting outplayed in the fourth, they managed to hold on and win by one, 105-104.

As for Game 3, New York was still solid on the offensive end (119.4 rating). But not so much on the defensive end (123.7 rating). It was the first time in the series the Knicks had a negative net rating (-4.3), and San Antonio won.

The Knicks are running out of gas. You can only play above and beyond as they have been for so long. Eventually, the level of play will come back down to Earth and be more in line with what fans are accustomed to seeing. That’s why I’m betting on the Spurs ML tonight (+114, DraftKings).

My Alternate NBA Finals Game 4 Picks:

Odds via DraftKings

• Over 216.5 (-112)

We saw the Spurs turn up the defensive pressure to win Games 6 and 7 in the Western Conference Finals. I don’t think we’ll see that here. They won Game 3 because the Knicks couldn’t keep up their defensive pressure in what ended up being a higher-scoring game. Expect to see a similar outcome — and a higher score — tonight. Take the Over.

• Second Half Winner: San Antonio ML (-102)

I’m expecting Game 4 to play out in a similar fashion to Game 3 (and to a lesser extent, Game 2). The game will be close, or San Antonio will have a lead after the first. But then the Knicks will take over in the second and hold a small lead at the break. But then the Spurs will take over in the second. I expect them to win the game outright, but they'll at least win the second half.