2026 NBA Finals: Latest Odds For Knicks vs. Spurs Series Winner

Coming into the NBA Finals, there wasn’t much talk about a sweep because both teams were too well-regarded for many to even fathom that happening. But after the Knicks swept the Spurs in San Antonio, it became hard not to consider it happening. With the momentum of an epic 13-game postseason winning streak driving them, maybe New York could do it.

We now know that it will not be since the Spurs took down the Knicks in Game 3 Monday night at Madison Square Garden, 115-111. Even with the win, the Spurs have a rough road ahead if they are to win the NBA Finals. However, the odds are not as much against them now as they were heading into Game 3.

(Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)

Let’s take a look at the latest odds to win the NBA Finals.

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Latest NBA Finals Winner Odds After Game 3 between Knicks & Spurs

With the possibility of a sweep on the table and the Knicks looking unbeatable going on 13 games, the odds of winning the NBA Finals had shifted dramatically in favor of New York. But, as could be expected, there has been another shift in the wake of San Antonio’s Game 3 victory (odds via BetMGM):

• New York Knicks -185
• San Antonio Spurs +155

It’s a significant drop for the Knicks as their odds were -500 heading into Game 3. But the odds are still in their favor as they went from an 83.335 chance of winning it all to 64.91%. San Antonio, by comparison, has gone from having a 20.33% shot prior to Game 3 (+380) to a 39.22% chance.

Since the series started, the odds have essentially flipped. San Antonio was a heavy favorite at -210 (67.74%) with the underdog Knicks coming in at +170 (37.04%)

But the question now is, of course, where do we go from here? How should we approach betting on the series? If San Antonio wins again, its odds will get shorter and New York’s longer as it essentially becomes a best-of-three series with two games at home for the Spurs. At the same time, if the Knicks win, their odds will probably skyrocket past -500. And, San Antonio’s odds will become long with how unlikely it is to come back from a 1-3 deficit.

So, what do you do? Where’s the value? Does a value play remain?

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History Still Favors the Knicks Over the Spurs

By losing both games at home, the Spurs put themselves in a position where they’d make history if they overcame the deficit and won the NBA Finals. No team in NBA history has ever lost Games 1 and 2 at home and still won the series. However, despite winning Game 3, history is still squarely in New York’s corner.

Since 1984, teams that have won Games 1 and 2 of a best-of-seven series on the road but lost Game 3 at home have gone on to win the series 75% of the time (Land of Basketball). But if we look specifically at the NBA Finals, teams that held a 2-1 lead went on to win 78.1% of the time (50-14). But, obviously, since 14 teams succeeded in overcoming the deficit, you can never say never.

If those teams can do it, why not the Spurs?

NBA Finals Odds: Where’s the Value?

Before I make my pick, let’s see if either market has value. Now, a bet has value if the chances you win are greater than the bet’s implied probability. Let’s take the Knicks: at -185, they have an implied probability of 64.91%. From a historical perspective, 78.1% of teams that hold a 2-1 series lead in the Finals go on to win. If we convert that percentage into odds, we get -357 (you'd have to bet $357 to win $100).

So, there is value in betting on New York at -185 right now (it would take a $185 wager to win $100).

As for the Spurs, their odds (+155 a $100 bet wins you $155) give them a 39.22% chance of winning (implied probability). However, only 14 teams out of 64 have succeeded in making the comeback; just 21.9%, which converts into +357 odds (a $100 bet wins you $357).

So, from a historical perspective, there is no value in betting on the Spurs.

My NBA Finals Bet Following Game 3

I don’t like the idea of risking more money than I’m going to win, so taking the Knicks to win at -185  is not an option in my book. Since there’s no value in betting on the Spurs, taking them at +155 isn’t an option either. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on who will win the NBA Finals.

Just bet on the correct series result rather than the outright winner (odds via BetMGM):

• Spurs 4-2 +700
• Spurs 4-3 +260
• Knicks 4-1 +350
• Knicks 4-2 +200
• Knicks 4-3 +550

Why bet on the Knicks at -185 when you can get them from +200 to +550? There is an element of risk attached, of course. If you take the Knicks to win in six and they win in five or seven, you lose.

My Pick(s)

I’m torn. Both teams are great, and I can see scenarios in which each wins. San Antonio is a great team. But I can see New York’s experience leading it to a series win in six (Knicks 4-2, +200). As for the Spurs to win, I  think the series will have to play out like the Western Conference Finals and go the distance (Spurs 4-3, +260).