2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds: Knicks OG Anunoby Rises After Game 4 Win

After an incredible win in Game 4 last night, the New York Knicks are now a game away from the franchises first NBA Championship in over half a century. However, with how that game played out, it is no longer an easy decision on who the NBA Finals MVP should be. That is, if/when they win again and clinch the series.

Conventional wisdom says to go with the team’s leading scorer because you have to score more than the other guy to win. It’s not a very original thought, or even one that requires much actual thought. But since the 2000 NBA Finals only four Finals MVPs did not lead their team in scoring.

(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

In fairness, most of the time the disparity between the leading scorer and everyone else was pretty significant. With that in mind, assuming the Knicks go on to win either Game 5, 6, or 7, is MVP Jalen Brunson’s to lose? Can we make a case for OG Anunoby?

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NBA Finals MVP Odds: OG Anunoby Makes His Move After Game 4

At this stage, it is pretty unlikely that most of the field even gets a single vote. It will be Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, or Victor Wembanyama. Here are the latest odds for each (via DraftKings):

• Jalen Brunson -120
• OG Anunoby +240
• Victor Wembanyama +390

If the Spurs were to actually mount one of the most improbable comebacks in NBA history, there is a solid chance someone other than Wemby plays well enough in Games 5-7 to deserve it over Wemby. But that’s a discussion for a different day.

Teams that held a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals have gone on to win the series 97.4% of the time (37-1). Yes, San Antonio fans, I am saying there’s a chance. But it’s not looking good, so let’s focus on the Knicks, specifically Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby.

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History Favors—Both (in a way)

A guard has won it in three of the last four seasons (although some lists have Jaylen Brown (2024 winner) as a forward/guard). But then, the forwards went on a run from 2011-2021 (some lists have  Andre Iguodala (2015 winner) as a forward/guard.

Since 2000, NBA Finals MVP has been won by four centers, seven guards, and 15 forwards (two forward/guards and two forward/centers). Brunson is listed as a guard and Anunoby a forward, so—advantage Anunoby? Not yet, because the winning team’s leading scorer won in 22 of 26 series since 2000. Advantage Brunson?

As the current favorite with a 54.55% chance of winning, Brunson naturally is at an advantage. He just has to keep playing well to win. Anunoby has to outplay him. But since Brunson has minus money odds (you’d have to bet $120 to win $100), I would absolutely not recommend putting your money down on him. So, the only real question here is whether there is value in Anunoby’s odds.

Making a NBA Finals MVP Case for OG Anunoby

Jalen Brunson definitely has an advantage in regard to scoring with 29.5 points per game to 23.8 for Anunoby. Brunson also has a slight lead in rebounding (4.5 to 4.0), and assists (5.0 to 1.3). But Anunoby has been better from 3-point range, shooting 55.6% (3.8-6.8) to 34.5 for Brunson (2.5-7.3 per game).

Just being better from the perimeter isn’t enough to say Anunoby has played a better game on offense. So far, in the NBA Finals, he has a 107.3 offensive rating to 108.5 for Brunson. But that is not a big difference. Solid and consistent defensive play could put Anunoby over the top.

Afterall, winning this series hasn’t been just about scoring. Keeping Victor Wembenyama and the Spurs from lighting up the scoreboard has been crucial. If you look at the defensive rating for both players, Brunson holds an edge there as well.

However, there is a metric that favors Anunoby that may be enough to turn the tide.

If you just consider the stats, Brunson deserves to win Finals MVP. While stats are important, the value a player brings should matter just a bit more. We saw Anunoby come through in the clutch twice last night, once when he blocked De’Aaron Fox’s layup and again moments later when he tipped in the game winner. But that’s just one game.

Okay, if we look for how both have played in the clutch, Brunson has a PIE (player impact estimate) of 4.4. Anunoby’s PIE is 13.5. That should be enough to put him in the conversation along with Brunson. Whoever has the more impactful performance in the deciding game should win the NBA Finals MVP.

Is There Value in Betting on OG Anunoby?

At +240, the odds say he has a 29.41% chance of winning. Had the voters not recognized Jaylen Brown in the 2024 NBA Finals despite most of Jayson Tatum’s stats being a little better, I’d probably say no. But that was just two seasons ago. So, I think there is reason to believe voters could look beyond the stat line and recognize Anunoby as the NBA Finals MVP.

It will/should come down to who plays better in the series clinching win. I’d say it’s more of a 50/50 thing between the two. So, yes, there is value in OG Anunoby’s NBA Finals MVP odds.