2026 NBA Finals: Spurs vs. Knicks Game 1 Best Bets & Odds (June 3)

The 2026 NBA Finals will get underway tonight with Game 1 between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs. I’m sure Grandpa has already mentioned it, but this is a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals. San Antonio won in five, claiming the first of five NBA Championships. That series was also the last time the Knicks made the NBA Finals.

A win will obviously mean a lot to both franchises. For San Antonio, it will validate the Spurs as a team on the rise and a potential contender for years to come. As for the Knicks, it will end a championship drought that stretches over 50 years for one of the NBA's most storied franchises.

(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

But a champion can’t be crowned without Game 1 being played. If history has anything to say about it, if you want to win the NBA Finals, winning Game 1 is imperative.

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NBA Finals Game 1 Best Bets: Spurs vs. Knicks Odds

• Spread: New York Knicks +4.5 (-108) | San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: New York Knicks +154 | San Antonio Spurs -185
• Total: O/U 218.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via DraftKings

Everyone wants to win Game 1, of course, for no reason other than it’s the first of four wins they’ll need to win the championship. Technically, losing it is not that big of a deal since there are six other games left. The loser can still easily win the NBA Finals. Oklahoma City did last year after losing Game 1 to the Indiana Pacers, 111-110.

But history takes sides with the winner of Game 1 in the NBA Finals.

Not just of the Finals, but playoff series in general. There have been 907 playoff series that at some point stood at 1-0. Of those series, 704 of the Game 1 winners went on to win the series. In a best-of-seven series, the Game 1 winner has gone 348-115. If that winner was the home team, we’re talking 280-50. Should the road team win, over half went on to win the series (68-65).

As for the NBA Finals, while it didn’t make a difference for the Oklahoma City Thunder last season, the winner of Game 1 in the NBA Finals has gone on to win the series 55 times (out of 79). So — who is going to win Game 1 tonight?

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Breaking Down Previous Matchups Between The Spurs and Knicks Ahead of Game 1

It’s easy to just go with the Spurs, and it's understandable if you want to do so. We just saw them take care of business against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, so their excellence is fresh in our memories. But the Knicks were actually the better of the two teams when they met in the regular season.

The first meeting was the NBA Cup Championship, where the Knicks used a 35-19 fourth quarter to win 124-113. San Antonio got a measure of revenge on New Year’s Day, winning 134-132 at home. But then the Knicks dominated the Spurs in their March 1 game, winning 114-89.

I know what you are thinking, Spurs fans: Had Victor Wembanyama not left the game early, we could have won by a wider margin (he played 24 minutes before leaving with a leg injury; he had 31 points and 13 rebounds at the time). Knicks fans, I know what you’re thinking: Maybe, but he played the whole game at our house in March when we dominated the game.

Both valid points, and also why NBA teams have to win a best-of-seven series to become champions.

Okay— but who is going to win?

How The Stats Help Shape The Betting View for Spurs/Knicks

During the regular season, the Spurs had the third-highest scoring offense in the league with 119.8 points per game. The Knicks came in 10th with 116.5. On the defensive end, San Antonio had the third-highest rated squad at 110.4, and the Knicks came in seventh at 112.3.

But New York actually allowed fewer points, 110.1 (fifth best) to 111.5 for the Spurs (seventh best). However, the stats from the playoffs tell a different tale. The Knicks come into the series riding an 11-game win streak, have gone 12-2, averaged 119.9 points per game (first), and held teams to 100.6 points per game (also first).

As for the Spurs, they have gone 12-6 in the postseason, averaged 115.3 points per game (third), and held teams to 105 points per game (sixth). So, on paper, while the Spurs may have been the better team during the regular season, it looks like the Knicks are the team to beat in the postseason.

Injuries don’t appear as if they’ll play a significant factor in the game. The Knicks will lose some depth if Mitchell Robinson can’t go (questionable, had surgery last week for a broken finger). But the Knicks are stacked with quality defenders they can throw at Wemby. San Antonio does not list anyone on the injury report.

My NBA Finals Game 1 Pick: Knicks +4.5 (-108, DraftKings)

It is hard not to go with the Spurs after watching them take care of the Thunder in Games 6 and 7 of the WCF. But the fact that they had to go to Game 7 to secure the series is the issue here. The Knicks are well rested after rolling through the Eastern Conference Semis and Finals with the greatest of ease. Now, that could result in some rust for Jalen Brunson and Co., but the Spurs are coming off a hard series on shorter rest.

Playing against another strong defensive team like the Knicks, fatigue could absolutely be a factor. I think the Spurs are the better team and can see them taking a lead into the fourth quarter. They may even go on to win, but a well-rested Knicks team playing as well as they have been will keep it close (if not win outright).

My Alternate Game 1 Picks:

• Knicks ML (+154, DraftKings)

For the same reason New York could keep it close, the Knicks could win this game outright. As intense as they’ve played in the postseason, fatigue could be a huge factor in this game for San Antonio. It looked like it was for the Spurs in Game 5 of the WCF. After two additional, hard-fought games, it would not be surprising if they struggled to keep up with a well-rested Knicks team, even after a few days off.

• First Half, Spurs -2.5 (-112, DraftKings)

While fatigue could be a factor in this game, rust will almost certainly be one for the Knicks in the first half. Yes, New York was rolling and looking great on both ends of the court during their run. But they’ve been off since beating the Cavs in Game 4 of the ECF on May 25. San Antonio has had enough time off to be ready to go to start the game. After handling OKC the last two games, they’ll be in the right mindset to make it very hard for the Knicks to knock off that rust. I think New York will do just that, in time, but not in the first half.