
The San Antonio Spurs shot terribly in Game 1, squandering a 14-point lead to lose homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals, bowing 105-95. The New York Knicks are white-hot: 12 straight postseason wins.
In Game 2 tonight in San Antonio the Spurs will need to fix a few things, but mostly it seems "effort" is what needs the most attention. It may have been fatigue following a seven-game series in the conference finals. As I correctly predicted, the Knicks won Game 1. I still have the Spurs winning this series, and I'll mention that in my Game Prop bet below.

(Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)
Today I have two player prop bets, both from the backcourt. Plus a Game 2 game prop.
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Odds via FanDuel
It may seem counter-intuitive following Game 1 when Jalen Brunson dominated in the fourth quarter, but the Spurs have the edge in the backcourt. That's because of their defensive ability and depth.
Stephon Castle overcame a slow start and ended up with 16 points and 8 rebounds in Game 1. At times he was wearing down Brunson with defensive pressure, and that allowed Castle to get to the loose balls and boards. That's one reason I am emphasizing rebounds in this NBA Finals matchup.
The Knicks have out-rebounded their opponents in 12 of their 15 playoff games (SPORTS REFERENCE). They were out-rebounded in Game 1 against the Spurs. Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart grabbed 27 rebounds between them. But the Spurs backcourt is more physical and athletic than any the Knicks have faced this postseason. That starts with Castle.
Castle has gone for 22+ in Points + Assists in each of his last four games. (SPORTS REFERENCE) He had a very good game earlier this postseason in a Game2: he was 6-for-10 with 21 points in Game 2 vs. Minnesota. That also followed a loss and was played at home.
The NBA is getting to know Dylan Harper. It's time for the world to know how great he is. The 20-year old poured in 16 points in just 27 minutes in Game 1. He was clearly more energetic and active than the Knicks backcourt. Harper also snatched eight rebounds, often elevating above bigger players. He is a handful.
His performance on the glass gives me confidence that Harper can accumulate enough rebounds to exceed his Points + Rebounds totals.
In each of the three previous rounds of these playoffs, Harper had a 10+ rebound game (SPORTS REFERENCE). Six times he's had 7+ boards in fewer than 30 minutes of play.
I'm placing a prop bet on Harper's Points + Rebounds for Game 2, based on his recent performance and the fact that Mitch Johnson is using him more. In his last three games, Harper has averaged 15.3 points and 7 rebounds in about 26 minutes per game.
For this bet, the market can be found in Alternate O/U for Player Props in the FanDuel app.
My winning bet of $100 would be worth $136 plus my stake.
My pre-series prop bet is still in play: Knicks to win Game 1 and Spurs to win the series, at +500. Now, we turn to the rest of the series, and I'm sticking with the Spurs to win Game 2.
A win Friday night is obviously crucial. San Antonio has a strong history of handling business in its own house after losing. The 2025-26 Spurs are 9-2 at home after a home loss. (SPORTS REFERENCE)
The Spurs are 7-1-2 at halftime at home in the playoffs. They are 6-4 at home, including the Game 1 loss. (SPORTS REFERENCE)
Earlier this postseason, the Spurs followed the same template they'll need to win the NBA Finals: loss in Game 1, but storm back to win Game 2. In a Game 1 loss in the second round at home vs. the Timberwolves, Victor Wembanyama was 5-for-17 and 0-for-8 from 3-point range. Sound familiar? That's roughly what we saw in Game 1 on Wednesday. The following game he was 7-for-15, 2-for-7 from 3-point range. The Spurs won.
Expect a much more aggressive offensive performance by Wembanyama in Game 2. Head coach Mitch Johnson mentioned after Game 1 that the Spurs needed to emphasize their offense in the paint. That's a not-so-veiled remark that his superstar should not be taking nine 3-point shots in an NBA Finals game.
