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2026 NBA MVP Odds: Impact of Luka Dončić Injury On Award Race

Dan Holmes

Sports Writer

Publish Date: Apr 03, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

Lakers star Luka Dončić suffered an injury in Thursday's game against the Thunder leaving his status uncertain.
Victor Wembanyama is setting records with his performance for the Spurs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as the favorite to win the NBA MVP for a second straight season.

Just when it seemed the Los Angeles Lakers were making a case as contenders for an NBA title, the injury bug took a bite out of their lineup Thursday night.

An injury to Luka Dončić in the third quarter threw a wrench in the NBA playoff scenario. But it's also bound to impact the NBA Most Valuable Player Award.

Luka Doncic #77 of the Los Angeles Lakers handles the ball during the game against the Miami Heat on March 19, 2026 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

(Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

Two players have been embroiled in the controversy for winner of that award: last season's MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder; and big man Victor Wembanyama, who leads the league in blocks and Defensive Win Shares, and is averaging 24.5 points per game. But Luka's name has been creeping into the discussion, especially after the Lakers went 15-2 in March.

NBA MVP odds can shift even with few games remaining in the regular season. But Futures Bets are a risky move this late in the season. That's because a lot of money has already been wagered on those markets, which impacts where the sportsbooks set the odds.

2025-26 NBA MVP Odds

NBA MVP odds listed here are from the betting experts at FanDuel:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ... -1000
Victor Wembanyama ... +500
Nikola Jokic ... +10000
Jaylen Brown ... +50000
Donovan Mitchell ... +50000 (DraftKings)
Kawhi Leonard ... +100000 (DraftKings)
Jalen Brunson ... +100000 (DraftKings)
Luka Dončić ... NO ODDS AVAILABLE AT REGULATED SPORTSBOOKS

Wembanyama is making history

How do you take over the NBA without many people noticing? It doesn't seem likely to happen when you're 7-foot-4 inches tall. Yet, Wembanyama has done it. That's because the Spurs big man changes games with his defensive play.

Wemby will lead the NBA for a third straight season in blocks. He's 22 years old and still filling out as a young man. He's scoring better, and he's running the floor like a much smaller, forward-style lane filler.

Consider this: in the 2025-26 season, the Spurs are +23.7 points when Victor is on the floor, the highest in the league. Since Jan. 1, Wemby has been turning it up: San Antonio is +316 when he's on the floor this year. The Spurs are 26-1 in the last 27 games that he's played. They have an outside chance of hunting down the Thunder for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Yet, many experts are sleeping on Wembanyama as an MVP this season. Why? Because the current NBA has trained fans and the media to fall in love with scoring. Defense doesn't seem to matter. The top players, the superstars, are the ones who score 30+ per game and hoist up an obscene number of 3-pointers. Even if they're poor defenders (see James Harden and Luka).

Wemby will score more when he needs to. But his game is about disrupting the other team. Not since Wilt Chamberlain has the NBA seen a player who single-handedly alters the entire sequence on the defensive end and in transition.

Watch a Spurs game. Don't miss the chance to see one of the most amazing athletes we've had in decades.

Luka hasn't qualified for regular season awards

The NBA requires players to appear in a minimum of 65 games. Thursday's game was Luka's 64th of the season. He would need to play one more contest to be a qualifier for the NBA or any other award (like Biggest Whiner of the Year, for example).

The Lakers are working hard to hold off the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets for the third seed in the Western Conference. With five games remaining, L.A. is two games ahead of the Rockets to stay out of the fifth seed.

Would L.A. rush Dončić back in the regular season just to solidify its seeding? Probably not. They are likely playing either the Minnesota Timberwolves or Rockets in first round of the NBA playoffs. But odds for the NBA Playoffs will favor the Lakers in the first round only if Luka is in the lineup.

SGA seems to have it sewn up

The odds "race" for MVP is not real. Clearly, the oddsmakers are all-in on SGA capturing his second MVP award in a row.

SGA may not be exciting (he's not). He may not be a celebrity (he isn't). Many fans may not be able to pick him out of a slightly crowded room (they can't). But, he's a very good basketball player. All that foul-baiting is working: SGA is averaging 31.8 points per game, and leads the NBA in field goals made per game. The Thunder will enter the playoffs as the top seed in the West, and are considered favorites to win the NBA title again.

According to FanDuel, the Thunder are +130 to win the NBA Finals. That's the lowest odds on a team entering the playoffs since 2017, when the Golden State Warriors were priced at +120.

Currently you'll need to wager $1,100 to win $100 on SGA to win the MVP.