2026 NBA Playoffs: Latest Western Conference Finals MVP Odds & Pick (May 27)

Should the Thunder close out their series with San Antonio Thursday night, it will be time to award the Earvin “Magic” Johnson Trophy to the MVP of the Western Conference Finals. But the Spurs have responded once already this season with their backs against the wall. Will they do so again?

How you answer that question will impact how you look at the latest Western Conference Finals MVP odds (via DraftKings). Do you want to roll the dice on a player from the Spurs or another Thunder player, or has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already got this thing wrapped up?

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Let’s review the odds and discuss some betting options.

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Western Conference Finals MVP Odds

Here are the odds for the six players listed with odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -400
• Victor Wembanyama +360
• Alex Carusso +3500
• Stephon Castle +20000
• Devin Vassell +50000
• Chet Holmgren +50000

The odds for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander give him an 80% chance of winning the Western Conference Finals MVP. If you really want to put some money down on him, you can find a better price at FanDuel (-360).

But that means you’ll have to risk either $360 or $400 to win $100. That’s with the possibility the Spurs bounce back in Game 6 in San Antonio and force a Game 7. If that happens, the odds for the favorites are going to be different. SGA’s will likely be a little longer. They’ll still be minus money odds, but you’ll have to risk less to win $100 than you would prior to Game 6. Of course, if San Antonio wins, Victor Wembanyama’s odds will not remain at +360 for long.

So, if you want a shot at winning more money, you’ll need to put your money down prior to Game 6. But is the risk worth the reward? What about betting on a Thunder player other than SGA?

Let’s discuss.

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WCF MVP Odds: My Analysis

The downside of these awards is that voters tend to take the easy way out and give them to the player who leads the winning team in scoring. Usually, that’s the right call because that player had the greatest impact on the outcome of the series.

But that wasn’t the case in 2023 when Nikola Jokić averaged 27.8 points per game in the WCG and Jamal Murray averaged 32.5 points per game. However, it was still an easy call for the votes as Jokić averaged a triple-double for the series with 14.5 rebounds and 11.8 assists per game.

It was an easy call last season, too. OKC only needed five games to close the series out against Minnesota. SGA led every game in scoring for the Thunder and had no less than 31 points in the four wins. Defense did not play as significant a role in winning the series. So, scoring was the statistical category voters could easily look to in order to judge a player’s value to the series.

But that is not the case this time around, whether Oklahoma City or San Antonio wins.

Defense is harder to judge since it doesn’t quantify as easily as scoring does. But in this series, its value has been almost as significant (if not more) as scoring. So the question now becomes whether there’s a player whose defensive contributions were so important he deserves the votes over SGA or Wemby.

My Pick(s) for WCF MVP

• Alex Caruso +3500
• Victor Wembanyama +360

SGA is going to be the first player that comes to mind because he’s the MVP and team leader, but he has not been the most valuable player to the Thunder in this series. The honor should go to Alex Caruso, with the importance that defense has played.

From a purely offensive perspective, he has had a solid series, almost as good as SGA. Caruso has averaged 24.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game (while playing roughly 14 fewer minutes per game). Alexander has averaged 26.2/3.0/9.8; better, but we also expect better from him.

When the offensive numbers are that close, you have to (or should) look at their defensive contribution. So far. SGA’s defensive rating for the Western Conference Finals is 113.5; Caruso’s is 99.6.

Now, if you believe the Spurs can win the last two games, it’s an easy choice. The only player worth betting on is Victor Wembanyama. Of course, there is the risk San Antonio loses in Game 6, so if you’d rather wait before betting on him,  I get it.

He might still have plus money odds if the series goes to Game 7.