2026 NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs, Western Conference Finals Game 3 Best Bets & Player Props

The battle for Western Conference supremacy continues tonight as the Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas.

As expected, after losing a nail-biter at home in Game 1, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder bounced back in Game 2. SGA led the way with 30 points, but he got plenty of help, especially from the bench, which outscored the Spurs' bench 57-25. So, how do you move forward?

(Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images)

Do you bet on the Thunder to continue playing at such a high level and beating the Spurs in San Antonio for the first time since March 2025? Or do the Spurs bounce back and take control of this series?

Western Conference Finals Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 3

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Game 3 WCF Odds

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 (-105) | San Antonio Spurs -1.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder +105 | San Antonio Spurs -125
• Total: O/U 217.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via DraftKings

At this stage of the season, fans typically hope for three things: (1) that their team is still alive, (2) that the teams playing are the best in the league and playing accordingly, and (3) that injuries do not have a significant impact on the outcome of the series. It is too soon, of course, to say what impact injuries will have on how the series plays out.

But they will almost certainly impact how Game 3 plays out Friday night.

OKC's Jalen Williams is listed as a game-time decision for Game 3 after aggravating a hamstring injury early in Game 2. He’ll undergo treatment leading up to the game, but since it is the second time in under a month he's injured that hamstring, it may be surprising if he plays.

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Losing a player who averaged 17.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game stings. But the impact of his loss becomes more substantial because of how he’s been playing. In Game 1 against the Spurs, Williams had 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists. In the two games he played against Phoenix, he averaged 20.5 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists.

But San Antonio could have an even harder time navigating its injuries. De’Aaron Fox has yet to play in this series and is questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle injury. Dylan Harper left Game 2 in the third quarter and is also a game-time decision due to right abductor soreness.

Harper is listed as Fox’s backup on the team’s depth chart, which means going with the third-best option, Jordan McLaughlin. McLaughlin averaged just 6.4 minutes per game in 44 regular-season appearances.

My Pick and Analysis for Game 3:

How each team navigates those injuries will have an impact on how tonight’s game plays out. To that end, the edge is with the Thunder as they have dealt with injuries all season long. Williams missed 49 games during the regular season, but the Thunder went 39-10 in those games.

Does that mean he is not important? Of course not! It just means Oklahoma City has enough depth on its roster to handle his absence. As for San Antonio, it is a little less certain. The Spurs were already using their No. 2 guy, but can they figure out how to win if they end up using their third option?

It will be easier said than done. But if they do not address the turnovers (21 in each game; Stephon Castle has had 20). OKC scored 27 points to San Antonio’s 10 off turnovers in Game 1 and had 57 to the Spurs' 25 in Game 2.

• My Pick: Over 217.5 (-110, DraftKings)

You can find the spread at 1.5 to 2.5 points. While I expect another great game, too good a case can be made for either team covering. So, I’m passing on the spread and for the same reason, the moneyline as well. These are two defensive powerhouses, but after watching Games 1 and 2 go for 230+, I do not see either defense clamping down enough that the other does not score at least 110+ points, with the other team picking up the slack to send the final score over this total.

Western Conference Finals Game 3 Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder Player Props

All odds via DraftKings

• Victor Wembanyama, Over 14.5 Rebounds at +102

OKC did what they could to take the big man out of the game, and he still put up 21 points and pulled down 17 boards in Game 2. But is the intensity with which they defended him in that game sustainable? Against a Wemby that is going to be even more driven to excel? I don’t think so.

I’m not going to count on him to cover his points total. But with how he’s crashed the boards in the postseason, I’m definitely taking the Over for this prop.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Over 7.5 Assists at -102

He has gone over this total in his last four games and in seven of 10 postseason games. San Antonio has held teams to 22.2 assists per game in the playoffs. The Spurs held him under this total in three of four regular-season games, but their focus will be more on stopping him from scoring. So, the opportunity will certainly be there for him to go over this total again.

• Chet Holmgren, Under 21.5 Pts + Reb at -107

Holmgren averaged 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in the regular season and had 20/9.8 against the Lakers and 17.3/8.5 against the Suns. But now he’s facing a real defense and has to contend with Victor Wembanyama. Hence, recording 8/8 and 13/4 in Games 1 and 2, respectively. He will almost certainly not do better in Wemby’s house, which means he will not come close to going over this total. Take the Under.