2026 NBA Playoffs: Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 3 Best Bets, Player Props & Prediction (May 9)

Technically, Game 3 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons is not a must-win for the Cavs, as a loss would not eliminate them. However, no team has ever staged a successful comeback after falling into an 0-3 hole (0-122). But a 2-1 hole, that’s a different story (77-258).

Going home, where the Cavaliers went 27-14 during the regular season and averaged 119.2 points per game (fifth best in the league) should give Cleveland a boost. But will it be enough to kickstart an offense that averaged 99 points per game in Detroit? The Cavs opened as favorites (-2.5), and the line has since shifted to -4.5 (DraftKings). So, plenty of folks appear to think the answer is “yes.”

All-Star guard Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons [Photo by Associated Press]

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NBA Playoff Best Bets: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Odds & Prediction

• Spread: Detroit Pistons +4.5 (-108) | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Detroit Pistons +154 | Cleveland Cavaliers -185
• Total: O/U 211.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via DraftKings

When the Cleveland Cavaliers acquired James Harden prior to the trade deadline, it was not hard to see why it was a good idea. Harden was having a solid season for a lackluster Clippers squad, averaging 25.4 points per game (18th-best in the NBA as of Feb. 7). Combine his scoring, experience, and playmaking ability with Donovan Mitchell (28.9 points per game, sixth best), and surely that formula would result in a trip to the NBA Finals.

Right? Well…while there is plenty of good that comes with acquiring James Harden, you get the bad that comes with him. Fans have been seeing that side of him so far in this series vs. the Pistons.

Harden has been ice-cold in this series. Through two games in the Eastern Conference semifinals, he has shot 32.1% from the floor (9 for 28), is 1 for 11 from 3-point range (9.1%), and has committed 11 turnovers. In a Game 2 loss, he had 10 points, six rebounds, and three assists. Despite one of their superstars playing poorly, it has not been all doom and gloom for the Cavs. They were down 11 at the half in Game 2 but battled back and took a brief lead early in the fourth quarter, 81-79. But that lead disappeared in less than a minute, and they couldn’t get it back.

So, if the Cavs can play that well without the version of Harden they hoped for when the team traded for him, just imagine how good it could be if he did show up.

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My Game 3 Pick: Detroit ML +154 (DraftKings)

Part of me wants to go with the Cavs to win tonight, but I just can’t make a strong case for them to do so. Yes, when the first-round series vs. Toronto was tied up at 2-2, Harden stepped up in Game 5 and led the team to a much-needed win at home. But unlike Toronto, the Pistons have an elite defense.

The key to this game will not be Harden but Cade Cunningham. After exploding in the final three games against the Magic, his production has calmed down. He has gone from averaging 32+ points per game in the first round to 24 so far in this series. As long as his production remains low, the door will be ajar for the Cavs.

But I don’t trust Harden to kick it open and walk through. It will be another exciting game, and another win for the Pistons.

Game 3 Best Bets: Pistons vs. Cavaliers Player Props

Odds via bet365

• James Harden, Over 5.5 Rebounds (+122)

I want to think Harden will find his shot in a very important game for his team. But you just can’t trust that he will. However, he has been fairly reliable on the glass of late, pulling down 6+ rebounds in his last five games. He averaged 4.8 per game during the regular season and had two, five, four, and two in the first four games against Toronto.

But I expect to see more effort from him in this game. Whether that translates into more points is a question I can’t answer. But I think it will at least mean he maintains the status quo on the glass.

• Cade Cunningham, Under 41.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

He exploded down the stretch for the Pistons against the Magic with 54, 45, and 45 PRA in the final three decisive games of that series. But in Games 1 and 2 of this series, he has totaled 33 and 38. We know the potential for an explosive performance is there. However, I’m not confident we’ll get it in a game that doesn't have the same sense of urgency as those three games vs. Orlando.

• Donovan Mitchell, Over 19.5 Attempted Field Goals at -120

As important as a good game from Harden is for the Cavs, it will not mean much if Mitchell slacks off. There is no reason to think he will, of course. If anything, it would not be shocking to see Mitchell take a few more shots tonight with Harden’s struggles. He averaged 20 per game during the regular season and has had 20+ in six of nine postseason games.

It’s a big number, but he is the best weapon the Cavs have. He’ll take his shots.