2026 NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Thunder, Western Conference Finals Game 1 Best Bets & Player Props (May 18)

The Thunder are set to host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. As could be expected, the defending champs are favored to win the game (-6.5), but the Spurs have proven they are a force to be reckoned with.

That was true during the regular season when the Spurs went 4-1 against the Thunder, including a win in one of two games played in Oklahoma City. OKC was a 10.5-point home favorite in the loss, but the Thunder were 6.5-point favorites in the home game vs. the Spurs they won (Jan. 13, 119-98).

(Photo by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)

On that note, let’s take a look at the odds and best bets for Game 1 between the Spurs and Thunder tonight and discuss how it might play out.

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Game 1 Western Conference Finals Odds: Spurs vs. Thunder

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +195 | Oklahoma City Thunder -240
• Total: O/U 221.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

We have the two best teams in the Western Conference facing off in the conference finals this year as the Thunder and Spurs square off. Oklahoma City followed a 68-win season with a 64-win one (best in the league). San Antonio had the second-best record, next to the Thunder, with 62-wins.

But being the best over the course of the regular season is not what matters most at this point. It’s who can be the best right now, and both teams can make a pretty good case.

OKC has bulldozed its way through the NBA playoffs, going 8-0. The Thunder have picked up the pace a little on the offensive end of the court, scoring 121.3 points per game in the playoffs compared to 119 during the regular season. They are making 51% of their shots from the floor (up from 48.4%).  However, in the regular season, they had the highest-rated defense in the league (106.5). In the playoffs, they rank sixth out of 16 teams, with a 109.3.

Opponents averaged 107.9 during the regular season but have averaged less (104.6 points per game) in the playoffs despite OKC’s overall defensive rating declining.

As for San Antonio, the Spurs had a more challenging route in the playoffs but still went 8-3. Offensively, San Antonio has taken a small step back, averaging 119.8 points per game during the regular season. In the postseason, it has averaged 116.9. Overall, there is a minimal difference, if any, for the Spurs in most statistical categories. But, on the defensive end, San Antonio has taken a big step forward.

During the regular season, the Spurs were rated as a top-three unit at 110.4 and held opponents to an average of 111.5 points per game. However, through the conference semifinals, San Antonio has the top-rated defense at 102.2 and has held opponents to 102.5 points per game.

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My Game 1 Pick: Spurs +6.5 (-110, bet365)

Oklahoma is a great team with a defense that is playing well and an offense that can put up 120 points on any given night if it wants to. Considering how they bulldozed the competition in the first two rounds, it is not surprising to see the Thunder favored. However, while San Antonio has lost three playoff games, it is clearly a great team. The Spurs are not scoring as much as OKC, but close, and they are playing better defense.

San Antonio beat Oklahoma City in four of five regular-season games. Can it get another win tonight? It’s possible, just like it's possible the Spurs lose. But if they do lose, it will not be by more than 6.5 points.

WCF Game 1 Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder Player Props

Odds via bet365

• Victor Wembanyama, Under 3.5 Blocks at -135

This is one where the sportsbooks want to see if you’re doing your homework. If you haven’t, chances are good you heard about his massive 12-block night against Minnesota. When you see the overpriced odds at +100, you want to jump on it. I understand; that was my first reaction, too.

But, since that game, Wemby has recorded a total of 13 blocks in the other five games of that series. In the five regular-season games vs. the Thunder, he did not record more than two. During the playoffs, the Thunder have allowed an NBA-low of 2.6 blocks per game. Victor Wembanyama is a machine on the defensive end, but don’t bank on him blocking too many shots tonight. Take the Under.

• Victor Wembanyama, Over 12.5 Rebounds at -130

He averaged 11.5 rebounds per game during the regular season, but has pulled down 10.7 per game in the playoffs. However, he has gone over this total in five of his last seven games, with 15+ in four of them. Against the Thunder in the regular season, he averaged 9.2 and went over this total in just one.

However, he has clearly elevated his game in the postseason and will likely continue to do so against the Thunder tonight. It is worth thinking about taking 15+ rebounds at +160, but I’m sticking with “Over 12.5” since Wembanyama didn’t average 10 per game vs. OKC in those five previous games.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Over 4.5 Attempted 3-Pointers at +125

SGA is not a big-time 3-pointer shooter. But he is not afraid to let it loose from behind the arc from time to time. He’s gone over this mark in just two of eight playoff games. In the four regular-season games vs. San Antonio, the league MVP played in, he attempted 4+ in each (7, 4, 6, and 4). With the Spurs defense probably cracking down on him tonight, I like his chances of attempting 5+ 3-pointers tonight.