2026 NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Thunder, Western Conference Finals Game 4 Best Bets & Player Props (May 24)

The San Antonio Spurs will try to climb back into the series tonight when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at the Frost Bank Center. When odds opened for the game, the Spurs were favored to win, and it appears they still will be heading into Sunday's game.

The public seems to be favoring the home team with 57% of tickets, but just 52% of the handle. So, should you follow the public? That’s a good question. Let’s go over the odds and see what we can figure out about the best bets to make in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder.

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Western Conference Finals Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-110) | San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder +115 | San Antonio Spurs -143
• Total: O/U 219 (-114/-109)

Odds via BetRivers

This game is going to go one of two ways: (1) Oklahoma City’s bench is going to continue to dominate and the Thunder will go home with a 3-1 advantage in the series, or (2) San Antonio will do like the team is expected to do and get it together enough to win Game 4 and send the series back to OKC tied at 2-2.

Bench scoring has taken center stage with the Thunder setting a record for scoring from reserves in a conference finals or finals game since 1971. But it isn’t just how much they scored that matters. It’s how much they have outscored the Spurs' bench. In Game 3, the Thunder bench won, 76-23.

However, the Thunder bench also dominated Game 2 (57-25) and Game 1 (50-16). So, yes, bench scoring has played a significant role in the last two games, but then why didn’t it have a similar role in Game 1? Because it wasn’t the only significant contributing factor. San Antonio has stopped playing defense.

Both teams had stellar defenses in the regular season. But in the postseason, San Antonio had the better unit through the first two rounds with a 102.2 rating. Oklahoma City’s defense earned a 109.3 rating. In Game 1 of this series, the Spurs' defense was the better of the two, with a 102.7 rating, while the Thunder's was 106.1. But in Game 2, OKC was the better of the two (116.5 vs. 124.5 for the Spurs). Game 3 was more of the same (111.3 vs. 124.2).

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My Pick for WCF Game 4

• Over 219 (-114, BetRivers)

The bench scoring and turnovers (San Antonio has had more in each WCF game and in four of five in the regular season) are absolutely a concern, but I’m not so sure they will be the primary factor in how tonight’s game plays out. That will be defense. OKC’s bench dominated in Game 1, but the Spurs played solid defense and came away with the win. San Antonio lost the turnover battle in four of their five wins over the Spurs this year. But in Games 2 and 3 of the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio’s defense disappeared, and the Spurs lost.

If San Antonio can figure out how to get its  defense back on track, this game could easily go either way. Having De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper active helps. But we will not know until the game starts whether the Spurs will make the necessary adjustments. With that in mind, the best bet to take right now is the Over. Even when both played solid defense in Game 1, the two teams combined for 237 points (although 35 points were scored in overtime).

There is value in taking the Thunder ML at +115. But, I’m banking on both offenses being active and the final score going over 219 points since either team has a solid shot to win this game.

WCF Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 4 Player Props

Odds via bet365

• Julian Champagnie, Over 6.5 Attempted 3-Pointers (-135)

Julian Champagnie has been struggling with his 3-point shots in this series, making just 23.1% through three games. But he hasn’t made fewer than seven attempts over the last five games and is shooting 38.6% from the perimeter in the NBA playoffs. He’s due to have a good night, but to have one, he’ll need to keep shooting.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Under 22.5 Field Goal Attempts (-105)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the regular season MVP, the team’s leading scorer, and took more than 22.5 shots in Games 1 and 2. But he only took 17 in Game 3. With how well the bench has been playing, I don’t expect him to take 23+ shots in this game.

• Victor Wembanyama, Over 42.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-120)

Wemby blasted this number in Game 1 (68) and went over it in Game 2 (44). He wasn’t even close in Game 3 (33). But after listening to him talk after Game 3 about doing a better job of helping his teammates, look for Victor Wembanyama to have a better all-around performance and for him to go over this mark for the third time in four games.