2026 NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Thunder, Western Conference Finals Game 5 Best Bets & Player Props (May 26)

Oklahoma City needed to respond after losing Game 1, and the Thunder did so with wins in Games 2 and 3. San Antonio needed to respond after dropping Game 3 at home, and the Spurs did. So, does that mean we'll see the Thunder respond in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals tonight in Oklahoma City?

It is entirely possible they do, but at the same time, the Spurs could take the momentum from their dominant Game 4 win and ride it to a victory Tuesday night. Or we’ll see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander flex like Victor Wembanyama did in Game 4 and lead his team to a win.

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

There are so many ways in which this game could play out tonight. Let’s take a look at the odds and see if we can figure out the best way to make bets on Game 5 between the Thunder and Spurs.

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Western Conference Finals Game 5 Best Bets: Thunder vs. Spurs

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs +4.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +142 | Oklahoma City Thunder -170
• Total: O/U 216.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via DraftKings

This is a tough one to figure out, and from a fan perspective, that’s a great thing. You want the best teams playing at the end of the season, and you hope they live up to their reputation. As far as the Western Conference Finals go, so far, so good. OKC and San Antonio have not disappointed.

But from a betting perspective, you want to find an edge, a reason to think either team will win the next game. Between these two teams, there might not be one, or if there is, it’s negligible.

For the series, the Thunder offense has a 107.5 rating, while the Spurs' is 108.8. Defensively, OKC comes in at 108.8 and San Antonio 107.5, giving the Spurs a positive net rating of 1.2 and the Thunder a -1.2. So, since a positive net rating means you’re scoring more points than you allow, advantage San Antonio — right?

Technically, but we are talking about 1.2 points, a single basket, one player, resulting in a different outcome. Does that sound like an advantage you can count on?

I don’t think so.

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WCF Game 5: My Pick and Analysis

San Antonio didn’t exactly shut down the Thunder bench in Game 4. OKC’s bench still outscored the Spurs.’ But the difference was minimal, 34-30. Unlike the first three games, where the Oklahoma City bench blew San Antonio’s reserve group out of the water. However, I don’t know that I’d call that the decisive factor. I’m not so sure it was the Spurs winning the turnover battle either (12-17).

It was the drastic change in their defensive performance. San Antonio’s defense rated around 124 in Games 2 and 3, but for Game 4 — 80.4. Some of that could be attributed to the Thunder’s shooters having an off night (33% from the floor and 18% from 3-point range).

However, you could also say they had such a bad night because the Spurs' defense was that good. But can they maintain that level of intensity for an entire game again?

Having De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper available certainly helped. Not having Ajay Mitchell or Jalen Williams available certainly hurts Oklahoma City’s legendary depth. If Williams is out once again (he’s listed as a game-time decision), advantage Spurs.

My Pick: San Antonio +4.5 (-105)

I’m not so sure the Spurs can turn that kind of pressure on for an entire game again, but they’ll turn it on enough to make this an incredible showing. At the same time, I’m sure we’ll see some adjustments from OKC that will help create a few more open shots.

If you do a deep dive into the numbers behind both teams, you’ll see that the difference between them is pretty small. I could list several for you here, or I could just reference the net rating again — 1.2. One play having a different outcome is all it takes to flip the script. That tells me this is going to be a close game that either team could win, but also that the Spurs will not lose by 5 or more points.

Game 5 Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder Player Props

Odds via bet365

• De’Aaron Fox, Over 14.5 Points (-112)

Fox cleared this total in his first game back on Friday (15) but just missed it in Sunday’s game (12). However, if this matchup is much closer than Sunday’s, as expected, San Antonio will not sit him down as quickly as the team did in Game 4. With injuries causing OKC to go with a bigger backcourt, the Spurs will want to use Fox’s speed and quickness to create plays against it.

Consequently, he’ll see more minutes and get enough shots to go over this total. He’s gone over it in 11 of 13 postseason games.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Under 22.5 Attempted Field Goals (-125)

I hesitate to go back to the same prop two games in a row, especially since getting SGA the ball more should be part of OKC’s game plan tonight. But I’m not so sure they’ll give up on getting the bench involved like in Games 1-3. He’ll take more shots because the Thunder needs him to. But between keeping the bench involved and San Antonio’s defense, he’ll finish under this prop again.

• Chet Holmgren, Under 13.5 Points (-135)

Holmgren averaged 17.1 points per game during the season. He went over this mark in seven of the eight games he played in the first two rounds. But the Spurs have had his number. He’s gone over this total in one of four games in this series. He also went over it in just one of four regular-season games, too. Take the under.