2026 NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Series Odds & Picks

It looks like fans are getting the matchup many hoped for in the Western Conference Finals with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs taking on two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

As the team with the best regular season record in the NBA and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, who have yet to lose a game in the postseason, it makes sense that the Thunder are favored. But the odds are giving OKC a 72.22% chance of winning the series (-260 via DraftKings).

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

If you just consider how the postseason has gone, that is understandable. But the Spurs won the regular season series vs. the Thunder, 4-1. So, why is San Antonio getting underestimated? Or is Oklahoma City getting overestimated? Let’s talk about it.

If you are on the hunt for more sports and NBA betting promotions, then we have you covered with this list of the best sports betting offers here.

Western Conference Finals Odds: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

As could be expected, the No. 1 seed (Oklahoma City) is favored to win the series. But history has shown us that the No. 2 seed cannot be overlooked. Of the 45 times No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have met in the conference finals, the No. 2 seed won 21 times.

Here are the Western Conference Finals series winner odds (via DraftKings):

• Oklahoma City Thunder -260
• San Antonio Spurs +210

Sportsbooks know that fans want to do more than just bet on the winner of a playoff series, especially one as contentious as this one could be. But could the Thunder record another sweep? Or maybe the Spurs will record a sweep? After all, San Antonio has swept an opponent in the playoffs 11 times over the years.

DraftKings also offers odds on the correct score of the Western Conference Finals:

• Thunder 4-0 +550
• Thunder 4-1 +330
• Thunder 4-2 +450
• Thunder 4-3 +310
• Spurs 4-0 +2200
• Spurs 4-1 +1400
• Spurs 4-2 +550
• Spurs 4-3 +800

Sportsbooks have a wide range of markets available for fans to bet on. Let’s say you are not sure who will win, but you have a strong feeling about how competitive the series will be. Then, you’ll be interested in betting on the exact number of games in the series (odds via DraftKings):

• 7 games +205
• 6 games +225
• 5 games +285
• 4 games +425

In the 2014 Western Conference Finals, the Spurs won in six games over OKC. But in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, the Thunder won in six games over San Antonio. Since 2000, 22 conference finals series have been decided in six games (eight in the Western Conference).

Best Brand

BetMGM Promo

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Best Bonus

FanDuel Promo

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!

Get bonus now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, KY, WV). Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.gamblersanonymous.org . Must be 21+ in NJ, PA, MI, or WV. $10 first deposit req. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus spins which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. Contact 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

Newcomer

Caesars Promo

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

-

21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

Western Conference Finals Series Breakdown: Spurs vs. Thunder

Another way to put this is that the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting a lot of respect, as they rightfully should. After all, they won the most games in the regular season this year (64), earning them the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. They had the No. 5 offense in the league (119 points per game) and held teams to 107.2 points per game (second-best). Oh, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to win NBA MVP honors, again.

If that is not enough, NBA history favors the Thunder as well.  In all, 91 No. 1 seeds have made the NBA Finals. Eight of the last 12 Western Conference Finals champions were the No. 1 seed. So, yeah, the Thunder should be given respect and favored to win this series.

But that does not mean the Spurs should be disrespected in the process. At these odds, that is exactly what is happening.

During the regular season, San Antonio was one of three teams to win 60+ games (62), which would have been good enough to be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. But in the West, it made the Spurs the No. 2 seed behind the Thunder. They had the No. 3 offense in the NBA during the regular season with 119.8 points per game (.8 higher than OKC). San Antonio had the No. 3 rated defense at 110.4 (but the Thunder ranked No. 1 at 106.5)

Wembanyama is not expected win the NBA MVP, Alexander is, but he was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year. But what makes the series odds disrespectful is how the regular season played out between the Spurs and Thunder. San Antonio won the season series, 4-1. Oklahoma City was favored in four of them but the Spurs won three by at least 10 points.

My Western Conference Finals Series Pick(s)

If you want to make just one wager on the Western Conference Finals, don’t bet on either team to win. This is going to be an exciting, intense series that both teams have a realistic shot at winning. So, there is no value in taking OKC at -260, but I wouldn’t quite call San Antonio at +210 to be a value play.

I would not be shocked to see this series go the distance. Of the last seven Western Conference Finals series, only one lasted six games (2021, Suns vs. Clippers). But this is the first time we’ve seen the top two seeds in the West meet in the conference finals since 2018 (Warriors vs. Rockets; lasted seven games).

This series will likely go at least six games (+225), if not go the distance (+205).

Now, if you want to bet on a winner, I’d recommend taking either team to win in six (Thunder 4-2 at +450; Spurs 4-2 at +550). Both teams are too good to be swept in this series or to win only a single game.