2026 NBA Playoffs: SGA, Wembanyama Lead Finals MVP Betting Odds

If your first reaction to the idea of betting on an NBA Finals MVP winner with the conference finals far from being decided is “Heck no!” I understand. No one wants to risk betting on a player to win an award he ends up not even playing for. However, if you are thinking about betting on the NBA Finals MVP, now is a good time to place your wager.

Or at least a potentially profitable one. Of course, all winning bets are profitable even if you don’t win much. But I’m talking about winning more on a wager.You’ll probably win less just by waiting until prior to Game 1 of the NBA Finals to place your wager.

(Photo by Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images)

Allow me to explain, but first, let’s take a look at the odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP for several of the top contenders.

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NBA Finals MVP Odds: Top Contenders

The following are the odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP for players on both teams in the ECF and WCF (via DraftKings):

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) +100
• Victor Wembanyama (San) +230
• Jalen Brunson (NYK) +600
• Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) +2000
• Donovan Mitchell (CLE) +4000
• Jalen Williams (OKC) +6000
• Stephon Castle (San) +6000
• OG Anunoby (NYK) +7000
• Chet Holmgren (OKC) +8000
• James Harden (CLE) +10000

Since the Finals MVP typically comes from the winning team and both Western Conference teams are favored over the Eastern Conference, oddsmakers are giving the shortest odds to the two players in the WCF. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider players from the Eastern Conference.

Their odds are long for a reason. One team will not make the NBA Finals, and the other will be a heavy underdog.  Since the odds favor the Knicks to win the East, the odds for Cavs players are longer. Even if Cleveland pulled off an upset, it would be heavy underdogs. Thus giving oddsmakers more reason to make odds on Cavs players longer.

But this also means players like Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are incredible value plays right now. Their odds are incredibly long compared to those of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns because oddsmakers expect the Knicks to win the series. However, as Detroit fans can say, expectations mean little.

The 60-win Detroit Pistons were expected to handle the Cleveland Cavaliers in the semifinals, but they came up short. Last year, the Indiana Pacers shocked the New York Knicks by beating them in six games. What’s to say the Cavaliers can’t pull off a similar upset? If they do, you can count on one thing: Donovan Mitchell’s Finals MVP odds will not remain anywhere close to what they are now (+4000).

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How Can We Narrow Down The Pool And Why You Should Bet Now

Oklahoma City is currently a heavy favorite to win the Finals at -110, giving it a 52.38% chance. San Antonio comes next at +210 (32.26%). New York follows the Spurs at +425 (19.05%), and Cleveland at +3000 (3.23%). Since No. 1 seeds have won the NBA Finals 53 times, history suggests we should start by looking at OKC players.

If the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will make an excellent bet.

But if you want to bet on him or Victor Wembanyama because you think the Spurs will win the series, wait, you’ll be disappointed. Both will likely be heavy favorites to win the Finals MVP if their teams win the Western Conference. That means they will go from having plus-money odds and doubling your money if you bet on SGA now at +100, to likely taking him at a price similar to how his WCF MVP odds opened (-230).

That means you would have had to risk $230 just to win $100.

NBA Finals MVP: My Pick(s)

If you are going to bet on anyone, their odds will be longer now than they will be once the conference finals are over. So, if you want to bet on SGA or Wemby, bet on them now. But at this stage, I also like to put a little something down on a long shot. At this stage of the playoffs, anyone can win. Yes, we expect New York and OKC to take care of business, but the Spurs have already beaten the Thunder, and we’ve already seen the Cavs pull off an upset in the semifinals.

So, after betting on Wemby (because I like the Spurs), I’m also betting on Donovan Mitchell (+4000) and James Harden (+10000; FanDuel lists him at +20000). I considered Jalen Brunson. But at +600 and considering how the odds are against the Eastern Conference rep, I don’t see enough value there.

Picking someone from an Eastern Conference team is a high-risk move and requires a higher reward.