2026 NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 Best Bets and Player Props (May 11)

Lakers fans hoped that if their team could stay alive until Luka Dončić returned, it would give Los Angeles a fighting chance. But, according to reports, he has already been ruled out for Game 4 making it seem unlikely Dončić logs any time in a playoff game this season.

That is, assuming the Lakers do not find a way to pull off an epic upset in Monday's game against the Thunder. Anything can happen, right? Let’s talk about the odds for tonight’s game and our betting recommendation.

LeBron James Lakers

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NBA Playoffs: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Best Bets

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Lakers +11.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -520 | Los Angeles Lakers +390
• Total: O/U 214.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via DraftKings

Without their best player, the Lakers knew they’d be fighting an uphill battle against the Thunder. They aren’t just facing any old team. Los Angeles is  facing the defending champs, the No. 2 defense in the NBA (107.9 points allowed per game). But OKC is not just a stellar defensive quad. It is also one of the best offensive units in the league (No. 5, 119.0 points per game).

Just to be competitive with a team that excels on both ends of the court is an achievement. While the final scores make it seem like the Lakers have not been very competitive, they have had their moments. At some point in each game, the Lakers held the lead, by as much as seven points in Game 1 and five points in Games 2 and 3.

Of course, that’s not saying much when the Thunder led by close to 80% or longer in every game and has won each game by double digits. But in games that became blowouts in the end, the Lakers did not play poorly. From a statistical perspective, Oklahoma City hasn’t been dominating (other than the scoreboard in the end).

Yes, OKC has led most, if not all, relevant statistical categories in all three games. But the Lakers haven’t been too far behind. There have only been two instances where the difference was significant, points conceded off turnovers in Games 2 (26-14) and 3 (30-11).

What does this tell us? Well, it tells me that both teams are playing well, but one team is simply better.

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My Pick: Thunder -11.5 (-105)

That’s not exactly a ground-breaking deduction, I know. But in trying to find a reason to believe the Lakers can make a game of it in tonight’s contest, it’s relevant. Why? Because there is no reason to think this game will be more competitive than the rest.

OKC has been the better team in just about every way in each game, and without its best player at his best. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged a pedestrian 21 points per game, yet the Thunder have won by 18+ points in each contest. Fans will hope SGA can turn it on tonight and make the game more entertaining. But if he doesn’t, that’s okay. OKC can and will cover anyway.

Game 4 Player Prop Bets: Thunder vs. Lakers

Odds via bet365

• Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Under 40.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

SGA is certainly capable of going over this mark as he has in 41 of 75 games played this season. He has finished under it in four of six games vs. the Lakers this season and in four of seven postseason games. With how the other three games in this series have gone and with the conference finals around the corner, he may not be in the game long enough to go over this total.

• LeBron James, Under 36.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-110)

Back in the day, this number would be a drop in the bucket for James. He’s gone over it in just 28 of 69 games played in this season and in two of five games vs. the Thunder this season. He has gone over it in five of nine postseason games, but in just two of his last six. If there is anyone who can blow up and go over this number, it’s James.

But the Thunder are on a mission, and they are not going to let James stand in the way.

• Austin Reaves. Under 21.5 Points (-110)

Reaves averaged 23.3 points per game during the regular season. But he has gone over this number once in this series (31 points in Game Two), twice in the postseason, and once in six games against the Thunder this season. If the Lakers are going to have a chance, they need him to have a big day.

However, there is no reason to think that he will. OKC’s defense has handled him well this season and will do so once again tonight.