2026 NBA Playoffs: Updated NBA Championship Odds & Prediction After Knicks Secure Finals Berth

I know what some of you are thinking: why on Earth would someone bet on NBA Championship odds with the Western Conference representative still undecided and before what could be the deciding game? The answer is simple: value. I’ll use the odds for the Thunder before last year's Western Conference Semifinals and NBA Finals as an example.

Prior to the Western Conference semis, Oklahoma City’s NBA Championship odds were +145, and prior to the NBA Finals, they were -700. Had you bet before the semifinals, a $100 bet would have resulted in a $245 payday (your stake plus $145 in winnings). But if you wanted to, until prior to Game 1 of the NBA Finals, you had to risk $700 to win $100.

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

On that note, let’s look at the odds for the remaining teams and discuss the betting options.

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2026 NBA Championship Odds

Here are the odds at FanDuel  for the three remaining teams to win the title this season , prior to Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals getting underway:

• Oklahoma City -140
• New York Knicks +210
• San Antonio Spurs +500

Had you bet on the Knicks prior to the Eastern Conference Finals, you could have gotten them at +550. Heck, if you really believed in them, you could have gotten them at +2200 prior to the first round getting underway. Only eight No. 3 seeds have ever reached the NBA Finals, and none have won. So yeah, that looked like a good idea (not really).

As could be expected, the Thunder have been heavy favorites throughout most of the playoffs. Before the first round, BetMGM had them at +115, but after it, -145.

As for the Spurs, as the team most expected to give the Thunder a run for their money, San Antonio’s odds have not changed too much. Coming into the playoffs, the Spurs had +450 odds, and heading into the WCF, their odds were +300. But as they face elimination in Game 6, their odds have climbed up to +550.

So — who should you bet on right now? Let’s discuss the merits of betting on each team prior to the Thunder and Spurs playing in Game 6 of the WCF:

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San Antonio Spurs

Since 1984, teams that have taken the same path through the Western Conference Finals (winning Game 1 on the road, losing Games 2 (road) and 3 (home), and losing Game 5 (road)) went on to lose the series over 90% of the time (2-21).

But we all saw San Antonio lock the Thunder down the last time its back was against the wall (Game 4). It could certainly do so again. The Spurs are favored to win the game, after all (-6.5). Yes, they would still need to win Game 7 in Oklahoma City, but they’ve won there before …

Statistically speaking, there is not a massive difference between these two teams. So, it is not inconceivable that the Spurs win out and head to the Finals. Of course, if they do and probably if they win Game 6, their odds will shift and get shorter. With how the Knicks have been playing, the odds for a Spurs vs. Knicks series may be pretty competitive.

But they will certainly be a lot shorter than they are right now.

Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s not hard to make a case for the Thunder to win it all; they are defending champs and the No. 1 seed in this year’s playoffs. They rolled through the first two rounds with ease, and they are leading in this series despite not getting the best out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in most of the games.

Regarding the Knicks, the Thunder swept them in the regular season, but the games were competitive. Of course, the Knicks have taken their game to another level in the playoffs. So, they may not make it easy for the Thunder to repeat.

New York Knicks

The Spurs and Thunder are in the spotlight at the moment, but the Knicks have put on a show in the postseason. It’s New York that has the No. 1-rated offense in the playoffs (123.3) and the No. 1-rated defense (103.5), not Oklahoma City or San Antonio. OKC’s offensive rating is second best at 120.1, and San Antonio’s third (114.9). On the defensive end, San Antonio has the second-best rating next to the Knicks at 105.0, with the Thunder coming in sixth at 109.4.

Yes, during the regular season, the Knicks were not the better team, but how anyone played then does not matter. All that matters is how they are playing right now. Right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

My NBA Championship Pick(s)

If you want to bet on the Thunder, wait. Right now, there is no value, and that will probably not change if they move on. However, let’s assume they lose Game 1, something that is not uncommon when one team is as highly regarded as they are. When that happened last season, their odds went from -700 (on June 2) to -320 (on June 6).

It still isn’t a great price, but it’s better than -700.

But the only team I am betting on at this point is the Knicks at +225. They were competitive with both teams in the regular season and have been playing incredible basketball in the postseason. I don’t think they are getting enough credit for how they’ve been playing. At this point, if their odds get longer, it will be because they’ve lost a game. Otherwise, they'll get shorter because they are winning.

So, the time to pull the trigger on the Knicks' championship odds is now.