2026 NCAA National Championship Best Bets: Michigan vs. UConn Odds & Predictions (April 6)

Before they run "One Shining Moment" tonight during the NCAA National Championship game, there should be many ways to cap your college basketball season with a winning bet or two.

The Connecticut Huskies face the Michigan Wolverines tonight at 8:50 p.m. ET in Indianapolis to crown the best team in college basketball. Oddsmakers have Michigan anywhere from 6 to 7-point favorites.

(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

UConn is seeking to win a third national championship in four seasons under hyper-intense head coach Dan Hurley. The Huskies are considered a "blue blood" school in this sport. Their opponent may be considered a "Big Blue Blood," as in Michigan's Big Blue. The Big Ten school is on the precipice of a second national title in two sports within a three-year period. But first, the Wolverines will need to slay Hurley's dynasty.

These teams advanced to the national title game in very different ways. UConn survived Duke when it won on a miracle shot in the Elite Eight. Michigan has pounded its opponents during the tournament, including a manhandling of highly regarded Arizona on Saturday in the Final Four.

There's only one national championship game. That's why I've made four best bet picks for tonight's matchup.

• No. 2 Connecticut vs No. 1 Michigan, 8:50 p.m. ET, TBS

First Basket Wager

If first-basket wagers are your treat, here's my pick for tonight's game. It's the Michigan player who most has the ball in his hands. Elliot Cadeau is averaging 11 points on 10 shots per game in the tournament. All odds can be found at BetMGM.

• BEST BET: Elliot Cadeau To Score First Basket, +800

Player Prop: Aday Mara is Michigan's Big Man

In his three-year college career, the big Spaniard, Aday Mara has recorded only four 20+ point games. But he accomplished it Saturday in the national semifinal against Arizona. Which means he's standing taller than his 7-foot-3 in terms of confidence.

I like Mara to dominate inside around the rim against smaller UConn. If he scores 20 or more, my $100 wager will win a cool $425.

• BEST BET: Aday Mara (MICHIGAN) To Score 20+ Points, +425

Game Prop: Look For A High-Scoring Matchup In The Title Game

The Wolverines are unique in recent college basketball history: they have size at every position, yet run the floor extremely well. If an opponent wants to play brutish, physical ball, Michigan can do that. If it wants to shoot 3s, U of M can do that too. The Wolverines are amazing in transition.

This all means the Wolverines can score in lots of ways. Many of their chances occur on the offensive glass on missed shots, because their front court is so athletic and tall.

Points are usually high when Michigan is on the floor. The team has played 39 games this season entering its Monday night matchup against Connecticut. In 26 of those games (67%) the totals have been 150+ points. In its last six games, going back to Michigan's last game in the Big Ten Tournament, the combined totals have averaged 164.7 points.

UConn averages 76.9 points per game, which ranked 149th in the nation. This is a team that has to swallow the ball, eat up the clock, and scrap to manage the scoreboard. The Huskies need a game in the 60s. While Michigan is going to push toward the 70s, 80s, and beyond.

We should know by the 8-minute mark of the first half if UConn is going to be able to make this a game. Even if it does, the Wolverines are going to lift the score over 148. I love this game prop, and I'm allotting $100 to win $118.

• BEST BET: Over 148.5 Points, +118 (BetMGM)

Game Pick: Huskies vs. Wolverines

I like an alternate spread to push the odds into a more favorable range for my bank account. If Michigan wins by 8 or more points, my $100 wager is good for $100, plus my stake.

This is Michigan's title to win. The Huskies have lucked their way to the title game, barely getting past Duke, which thoroughly outplayed UConn in the Elite Eight. Only a flukey shot got Hurley & Co. this far.

Don't fall in love with the Huskies. This isn't the team that won back-to-back titles in 2023-24. These Huskies are toothless underdogs. The Wolverines are too deep, too strong, too talented.

• Best Bet: Michigan -7.5 over Huskies: +100 (BetMGM)

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Single-Game Parlay for Michigan vs. UConn

• Aday Mara To Score 20+ Points
• Michigan -6.5 Points
• Michigan To Score Over 77.5 Points

I think the only worry for this parlay is Mara getting into foul trouble. I suspect Hurley will try to thug his way to a title, by getting his players to flop, elbow, and cheap shot Michigan into foul trouble early. It only works if Dusty May's team is undisciplined.

Odds for this three-leg parlay are +875. I'm going $10 on this bet, to win $87.5. Adjust your wager for your betting unit and budget.