2026 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Best Bets: Tennessee vs. Michigan Odds, Picks & Player Props

The 2026 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight continues today with the Tennessee Volunteers (25-11) taking on the No. 1-seeded Michigan Wolverines (34-3) at the United Center in Chicago, Ill. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. EST with coverage provided by CBS.

Michigan is an all-around strong team. Many analysts describe it as an offense-first kind of squad. But is that fair to say about the team with the most efficient defense in the country (KenPom)? As for Tennessee, the Vols like to lean into their defense (No. 11 in efficiency).

(Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

It should be another wildly entertaining game. Let’s talk about how to bet on it.

2026 NCAA Tournament Odds & Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction

• Spread: Tennessee +7.5 (-110) | Michigan -7.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Tennessee +275 | Michigan -350
• TOTAL: O/U 146.5 (-105/-115)

Odds via BetMGM

 Elite Eight Profile: Tennessee Volunteers

With 11 regular-season losses (including the SEC Tournament) to their name, it is fair to say there was some doubt surrounding the Vols when the 2026 NCAA Tournament got underway. Several No. 7-10 seeds had better records but were slotted higher. Could playing in the SEC, a conference with five ranked teams, be worth that much?

Apparently, it is, but there is nothing quite like playing well to prove you belong and Tennessee has done just that. It got started by taking down the only team to go undefeated in the regular season in the first round, Miami (OH), 78-56. Two upsets later (vs. Virginia, 79-72, and Iowa State, 76-62) and the Vols are in the Elite Eight.

But how can they get past Michigan and make the Final Four for the first time in program history?

They have to play their game, starting with the pace. Michigan will want to run up and down the floor, taking a ton of shots (and making 51.1%). Tennessee has to play a physical, grind-it-out style of play that forces the Wolverines to slow down and work for each and every shot taken. Solid rebounding is a must to limit Michigan’s second-chance points and to create opportunities for itself.

Defensively, it will be all about causing chaos and disruption. The Volunteers need to keep the Wolverines from getting into rhythm. They’ll need to force turnovers and then score some points in transition, and make every pass and catch a challenge.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Arment have led the way on the scoreboard this season with 18.3 and 17 points per game, respectively. Gillespie averaged 22 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Arment failed to score against Miami (OH) but scored 16 and 18 points in the other two games.

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Elite Eight Profile: Michigan Wolverines

Michigan’s stay on top of the AP poll was short-lived once the Wolverines ascended to the No. 1 spot. But they closed out the regular season with four wins, including two over top-10 teams. But then they lost to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament title game, raising a few eyebrows.

A few more went up when Howard gave them a fight in the first round.

They didn’t have much trouble with Saint Louis in the second round (95-72) or Alabama in the Sweet 16 (90-77).  But are they really back on track once again, or are they in for a rude awakening against the Vols?

Michigan is back on track.

The key to winning the game lies on the defensive end. The Vols' offense is reliant on getting to the rim. No one in the SEC ran more direct post-ups than Tennessee this season. But Michigan’s big lineup is among the best in the country at defending that play. However, outright stopping opponents is not the end goal of the Michigan defense. It is so efficient that opponents have to execute their offense to near perfection to put points on the board, which is easier said than done.

At the same time, its offense (which is ranked No. 5 in efficiency) out-executes and outscores opposing defenses. That is essentially what the Wolverines did against Saint Louis and Alabama, and it worked like a charm.

Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads Michigan on the scoreboard this season with 14.9 points and 7 rebounds per game, followed by Morez Johnson with 13.2 and 7.3 per game. After a quiet game against Howard, Lendeborg stepped up with 25 points and six rebounds vs. Saint Louis and 23 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists vs. Alabama.

My Elite Eight Pick: Michigan -7.5 (-110)

• This game will look similar to the Alabama game (and, in a way, to both of their other NCAA Tournament games). The first half will not be the prettiest for the Wolverines as they see what the Vols are looking to dish out. Tennessee may even hold a small lead at the half. But then Michigan will adjust at the half, dominate the second half, and cover this spread.

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2026 NCAA Tournament Player Props: Tennessee vs. Michigan

Odds via BetMGM

• Ja’Kobi Gillespie, OVER 2.5 Made Threes (-150)

My first thought was to take the UNDER since the Michigan defense has been tough on perimeter shooters this season. But then I examined the box scores for the Wolverines' NCAA Tournament games: three players went OVER it vs. Howard, two vs. Saint Louis, and two vs. Alabama. The Michigan defense is not going to scare Gillespie from shooting from 3-point range.

If anyone is going to hit OVER 2.5 threes vs. Michigan, it’s him.

• Nate Arment, UNDER 16.5 Points (-105)

He didn’t score in limited minutes vs. Miami (OH), but averaged 17 in Tennessee’s other two NCAA Tournament games. But he does much of his work posting up in the paint, and Michigan’s bigs will not let that happen. He may still crack double-digits, but he will not get close to going OVER 16.5 points.

• Elliot Cadeau, 7+ Assists at +175 (or OVER 5.5 at -120)

Cadeau has averaged 5.7 assists per game this season, but he has been getting more minutes and making them count with L.J. Cason injured. He is averaging 7.7 per game in NCAA Tournament play and has recorded 7+ in five of his last six games. As fast-paced as Michigan will try to play, Cadeau have plenty of opportunities to go OVER this mark.